longoil

Investors Jostle over the Oil Sands Prize

In regards to HTE, there is several scenarios that can play out.

1) Approval of shareholders and Canadian government, HTE share price will not go above $10.

2) Non-Approval of either current shareholders or Canadian government, HTE share price will tank to $3 or $4 as KNOC is forced to unload its holdings.

3) Another Asian oil company enters the competition and bids HTE to $15 or $20.

I would say that scenario #1 is the most likely at 60%, scenario #2 is possible at 30% and scenario #2 is the least likley at 10%.

Investors Jostle over the Oil Sands Prize

Jimbo,

I agree 100% with you. There many sides to the oil sands developments.

1) They provide secure oil to the USA from neighbors who don't use the proceeds to fund terrorism against the USA and its allies.

2) There are many environmental concerns with the oil sands no doubt. But companies like Syncrude and Suncor have made great strides. The have increased the recycling rate of water used to the point where only 3 barrels or water are needed (instead of the previous 10 barrels) to produce 1 barrel of oil

3) Suncor has developed technology where the reclamation rate of mined oil sands land has decreased from decades to weeks.

www.montrealgazette.co...

4) Oil sands provides countless well paying jobs to people from Eastern Canada that have a experienced high unemployment rate.

Investors Jostle over the Oil Sands Prize

KNOC has stated they will try acquire another oil sands property in teh near future but obviously would not state which one.

Judging the stock price jumps today of PWE and BTE (9% and 0.65% respectively), many investors seem to be betting that PWE will be the next target.

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

Fitz,

I have the highest respect for both Hefner and Boone, but both have their personal agendas.

1) I read Hefner book (the GET) and I find he is a bit too chummy with CEO Aubrey McClendon of Chesapeake that he glosses over all the serious issues associated with non-conventional gas. While the book is the most comprehensive I have read on natural gas, he is far from neutral.

2) T. Boone Pickens wants the federal government to pay for the cost transmission line infrastructure to his wind farms.

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

The stock market was artificially inflated in the late 1990's thanks to the internet boom. Normally stock market indexes appreciate anywhere from 10 to 12% per year on average. In the short period of 1995-2000 we saw the DJIA shoot up 150% and NASDAQ go up 500%. Anything over 15% gain per year is unsustainable over the long term. The current DJIA = 10000 is actually the value it should have grown to since 1995.

Although gold is a good hedge. I can live without gold.

I cannot live without oil, which is used in thousands of applications (besides transportation). I think my money will appreciate the most over the long run invested in oil and gas.

The 95% of the world's energy mix (according to the BP statistical survey and the EIA) comes from oil, gas, coal & nuclear. Oil and Gas will be the key energy sources from the next 40 years. Alternative energy is still in its infancy. Solar and wind account for only 1% of the world's energy mix. Natural gas would be a good transitory solution, since existing cars can be modified to run on it for only a few thousands dollars. This is a much cheaper alternative than hybrid, hydrogen or electric cars.

The End of the Oil Age? Not Quite

I recently read some interesting data on the "Cash for Clunkers" program. Over 16,000 people that bought new Ford F150 trucks qualified for the CARS program. Similarly another 16000 people bought Chevy Silverados and also got the CARS rebates. What did these people trade in ? Hummers, Sherman tanks ???

The most interesting fact was that more people bought new Ford F150 trucks than new Toyota Prius Hybrids with the CARS program. So much for encouraging fuel efficent vehicles.

The End of the Oil Age? Not Quite

Hybrids (gasoline/electric) have a long way to go , besides the $50,000 price tag. TV commercials claim hybrids have saved 1 billions gallons of gasoline since they were introduced. Assuming a 40% yield (17 gallons) of gasoline from 1 barrel of oil and factoring in that the US consumes 22.5 mbls/ day, we get the following result: 1 billion gallons of gasoline translates to an insignificant 59 million barrels of oil (2.5 days worth) saved in the United States over a 10 years period. Conclusion, hybrids technology is over-hyped.

I agree with you that natural gas transportation will help, but to a point.

But remember three things:
1) Natural gas will also exhibit "Peak Gas" one or two decades after "Peak Oil".
2) Conventional natural gas reserve declines are much steeper than oil reserves.
3) Non-conventional gas fields exhibit an even faster decline, up to 50% to 80% reserve decline after only one year. Larry Bellehumeur's SA article of August 18, 2009 had an interesting discussion around this point.

Climate Change: How to Invest for the Possibility

Joseph,

I would NOT take Al Gore opinions very seriously. His record speaks for itself. I have to question Al Gore's real motives.

His global warming crusade is making a lot of green for him. He gets a minimum of $100,000 for every 90 minute talk his gives on global warming. No wonder he did not want to run again for president in 2004 nor in 2008 and get only a measly $200,000 / year salary.

thesmokinggun.com/...

You would think someone worth $100 million would do these talks for free, especially if he really believes in climate change.

A report by the Nashville Electric Service that showed Gore used an average 16,000 kilowatt hours a month for an average monthly bill of $1,206 in 2006. The typical Nashville home uses about 1,300 kilowatt hours. So much for leading by example !

Furthermore, look at Gore’s accomplishments with Clinton from 1993-2001. The CAFE standard was in good hands with Ford, Carter, Reagan and Bush 41. It rose from 15 to 27 mpg during 1975-1992. Clinton and Gore (Mr. "Earth in the Balance") were pandering for UAW votes in the 1990's and they expanded the light truck exemption to include Hummers, SUV, Jeep and Minivans and that essentially killed CAFE and it is now been flat at 27 mpg.

The real motive for Gore’s climate change crusade is to make more green for himself. He stands to gain the most from cap-n-trade and may become the first carbon billionaire, if the legislation goes through.

network.nationalpost.c...

Why Is Congress Agnostic About Natural Gas?

Carter did lay the ground work for reducing oil imports by 50% with his spreadheading of the CAFE standard. It took 15 years though to get to the 50% reduction. CAFE was 15 mpg in 1976 and was gradually increased to 27 mpg by 1991.

Then Clinton and Gore butchered CAFE legislation with the light truck exemption clause to buy UAW votes in Detroit and it stayed plateaued at 27 mpg from 1992 to the present.

If the Obama rhetoric holds out, it will be increased again to above 30 mpg in 2011.


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Oil Is Still the Key to U.S. Economic Future

Fitz,

Putting something on hold when you are 80+ years old is essentially giving up. He will live another 10 years at most (hopefully longer). Who knows when this economic crisis will be over. The 1929 depression offically ended in 1954. The stock market of the late 1960's stagnanted from 1965 to 1980.

The sad part is there is many excellent syngeries that can be implemented today with current technology to reduce foreign oil imports. The no-brainer is the Pickens plan of liberating NG for vehicular use. But with PHEV technology this can be taken another two notches higher. PHEV can use the wind generated electricity as per the Pickens plan as well as being capable of using several fuels such as gasoline, NG or ethanol as a backups.

Oil Is Still the Key to U.S. Economic Future

Fitz & Jonathan Swift,

There has been many new reports about Pickens putting the wind farm project on hold.

Here is a few articles from the last month from reputable sources:

edition.cnn.com/2009/T...

www.guardian.co.uk/env...

e360.yale.edu/content/...

Oil Is Still the Key to U.S. Economic Future

Fitz,

Your NGV idea will remain dormant (unfortunately) have for a while, until it is too late.

1) In Washington, we a PhD nobel prize winner (Steven Chu) that is totally ignorant on energy issues despite his many accolades.

2) T. Boone Pickens has essentially given up on his wind farm / NGV dream. I am wondering if the Democrats are deliberately ignoring his wind farm project as pay back for him funding "Swift boat" ads against John Kerry back in 2004.

My Thoughts on Oil

Thanks Fitz !

My Thoughts on Oil

Fitz,

I have been trying to order "The Grand Energy Transition". It seems to have been discontinued from Amazon. Where did you get your copy ?

In regards to recent books I have read, I would highly recommend Jeff Rubin's book "Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller""and "The Party's Over" by Richard Heinberg. Both deal with post-peak oil scenarios and possible solutions. They have a more positive outlook than James Howard Kunstler's books like "The Long Emergency", where he only paints a dire post-peak oil world.

My Thoughts on Oil

Fitz,

I am not surpised with Obama ineptude in regards to energy issues. I suspected it all along (and hoped I would be wrong) since the Democrat debates, but it was confirmed officially when he appointed Steven Chu as energy czar.

There is a multitude of qualified individuals in the USA with a comprehesive knowledge of the issues involved that would have been a better choice by a quantum leap that includes the following people: Robert Hirsch, Matthew Simmons, Richard Heinberg, Kenneth Defeyes, Steven Leeb and Jeff Rubin (I know he's Canadian and would not be eligible, but he ranks with these individuals)