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joker

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  • Environment For Bank Of America Continues To Improve [View article]
    You are really a 'know nothing' type.
    Mar 27, 2014. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JAKKS Pacific off and running after upgrade [View news story]
    This stock looks quite like a no-brain for buying. Don't know why there are so heavy a short portion out there, and still there.

    Here is a quite easy logic for valuation:

    Above $600 million revenue per year; let's simply assume a 4% profit margin, then there should have $24-$25 million earnings; and at current price, the market cap is about $160 million. So it's a 6.7X P/E stock. And kids are going to buy toys regardless recession or not; so you won't expect revenues going to drop much; and can anyone dispute a lousy 4% profit margin assumption? Any business can make above that, if they are seriously in business.

    So just wait and watch those no brain shorts get killed.
    Mar 11, 2014. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Is Ready To Outperform [View article]
    Totally agree. This author(s) seems just woke up and used information at the end of 2012 to write this article.
    Mar 7, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi bet on emerging markets not paying off [View news story]
    My understanding is that Citi's clienteles in EM are affluent people. If there is a FICO score there, I would say almost all of them would be at above 800! So talking about their high default on loans does not make too much sense. This is also backed by Citi's recent NCO rates in EM - very very low.
    Feb 14, 2014. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WPX Energy: Analyzing The $1.4 Billion Write-Off [View article]
    OK, have done building up my WPX position, I am now free to talking the stocks without fearing driving up prices.

    There is a very straightforward logic / reasoning and that is so obvious. I have been wondering why the world all those people get so scared and dump WPX in drove.

    Here is the logic: Assume WPX at $19/share is more or less a 'fair' price - it's been sitting around here for more than half a year. Unless you think the whole world is stupid, or you're smarter than anyone else in the universe - in this case, gives us your 'fair value' of WPX; and BTW, why you're not the top one in Forbes' list yet? - anyway, assume $19 is the fair value. Then WPX found that its stakes in Marcellus now is not much valuable, so they wrote it down and charged $1.1 billion from the book, plus another $300 mn for Powder River. Big deal, $1.5 billion from a company with market cap of about $3 or $4 billions.

    If that is it, then not much to say and it is the end of story. But before everyone ducks behind a rock for cover, just ask a simple question: what has WPX done in the whole year of 2013? were they hidden in a cave, or they were actually doing some work?

    Seems they have done quite some work. At least I remember they have a well generating something like 2.2 Bcf in a year, and it is still keeping going. And seems they struck some oil in San Juan / Gallup area.

    I don't think those new findings are in their 2012 book. Therefore here is the very interesting part: It looks those new findings definitely more than compensated those craps in Marcellus. therefore simple math: WPX should have net gain - after the $1.5 billion write-down. Therefore their value should be more.

    And that is not the end of story yet. Those natural gases in Marcellus -they are not going to disappear, are they? when the world is going to run out of energy (again!) and start looking for anything, those 'assets' will become alive again and gotta be worth something (again). You can discount whatever way you like, but you're be an accounting master (that is, a crook) to make them worth $0 ;-)

    So what you think WPX now?
    Feb 13, 2014. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WPX Energy: Analyzing The $1.4 Billion Write-Off [View article]
    Hello Richard,

    Thank you very much for the detailed and wonderful analysis.

    Get a quick question: do you have an estimate (no matter how rough it is) on how much new proved reserve WPX will have to add into its asset pool?

    Thank you very much.

    Best regards,
    Feb 13, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Tops Whisper, Why The Stock Could Drop [View article]
    Hey, they probably reclassified tablet as 'Mobile' and very likely some touch-screen desktop as well, then reclassifies the same green-back as from mobile. Money is money, as they're all green. So what's the big deal that those tagged as 'mobile' surge while those left-over sink?

    Are those guys crazy in so crazy about this stock? Or they're just stupid?
    Jan 30, 2014. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can SandRidge Find A Solution For The Variability Of The Mississippian Play? [View article]
    Thanks a billion! And thanks all.
    Jan 14, 2014. 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns [View article]
    Agreed!

    I don't get that bicycle joke, even I am a joker :-) Anyway, this is not a comedy site and we're here to make money. So if there is money making opportunity, we put money in!

    After the GoM divestment, SD has about 300 MMboe. On a 'back-of-envelop' calculation, that has about a NAV equal to SD's current valuation. However, SD only has delineated 600,000 acres property. It has a total 1,900,000 acres in the area. So let's assume half of them are full of 'dry holes' - or lousy bicycles, the other half is more or less the same (any evidence not so, anyone?), then the valuation should be in the range of doubling up. That is most likely the reasoning of Cooperman (he never reveals to me, though).

    So the money-making opportunity...
    Jan 14, 2014. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can SandRidge Find A Solution For The Variability Of The Mississippian Play? [View article]
    Hi, thanks a lot. Those are very detailed and informative analysis.

    Any chance that one could pin down those well's exact locations? I would assume that the company would drill wells in a clustered area and then move away to a new cluster when done. Therefore the wells in Q3'13 would come from an area that is 'light' but the new cluster is better. Does this sounds reasonable? - I am a finance person but very short of operations knowledge.

    Thanks a million.

    Regards,
    Jan 14, 2014. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns [View article]
    Really tried hard to understand the article's major point, from a lengthy article. Seems the author is stating that selling GoM property and using proceed to develop Mid-Con property is wrong in terms of capital allocation. In another word, with TPG and all those hedge funds holders in the process of deciding where is the best place to put capital, the author simply claims that those financial experts are simply idiots because they could not decide the best place to put capital on.

    Never know capital allocation is such an advanced thing to do. In the finance 101, we're taught it is simply an optimization problem. Of course, you need all the correct information to do it.

    So all those insiders don't have the correct information, while this author has all the right one? How come?
    Jan 13, 2014. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mayo refreshes bearish view on BofA [View news story]
    This guy is full of BULL. Totally out of his own competency - talking about "accountability" stuff. Is he a politician or stock analyst? Mortgage business is down - tell me if there is anyone in the world who has not known that yet. And he thinks the whole world is clueless so need him to speak that out?

    If he is a good stock analyst, then lay out a scenario most likely to happen, with concrete numbers and therefore the stock price. We'll then judge the tracking in several quarters to see really how good Mr. Mayo is. Otherwise, just shut the mouth. Shouting out loud the obvious makes one a fool.
    Nov 13, 2013. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman tags WPX Energy as a Sell [View news story]
    This guy is totally laughable. Regarding WPX, he slapped a $18, then cited that WPX's has "6% downside to its price target suggest weakness over the next 12 months", thus should SELL.

    WPX is essentially a pure NatGas play, plain and simple. It has tremendous amount of proved reserves, and more is coming on. As for oil play - if they can find some thus improve cash flow position, that is great. Even if not much oil, so what? Oil has been at the historical high level, and all the oil players should have seen their best days under the sun. Why now they are promoting for SMID oil plays? Do they think Oil will go to $150, or $200 per bbl?

    On the other hand, NatGas is deeply depressed in N.A - just check the prices around the world. If you believe the world is a free market - eventually, then it's a no-brainer to bet on the rise of NatGas prices. In that environment, companies like WPX, those with huge NatGas reserves, will out-shoot those oil plays by miles.
    Sep 24, 2013. 03:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The WSJ's Bad Math On Sears [View article]
    That guy, Mr. Balter, is simply a geek and has no common sense. The $55/SF valuation of JCP's is for its loan covenant purpose. By definition, that is extremely conservative and basically non-existence in the real world. Think about one rich guy needs money fast so he goes to a pawnshop to get $2,000 cash quick for his Rolex.

    Somehow to Mr. Balter, he is firmly rooted on this single fact, thus claims all the Rolex watches in the world now are worth only $2,000 a piece! And he firmly believes that and holds that as from a bible.

    That is basically what his 'wonderful' analysis on SHLD is based on. $55/SF!

    Let's simply do a test: I will pay him a $1 million commission if he can get me a Top tier Class A property, say, in one of LA's top shopping plaza, at the $55/SF price. Can anyone make this quick $1 million? Mr. Balter?
    Sep 12, 2013. 03:06 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP's tough talk will backfire, Gulf spill lawyer says [View news story]
    Look who's talking - the layers representing those freakin' claimants! Are they stupid enough to think they can just bilk BP so all those bums get rich? Those guys sound very much like some red necks in a movie who just made their own rules / laws.
    Aug 18, 2013. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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