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  • The big U.S. banks are considering defying the Fed and announcing capital return plans shortly after stress tests are released this afternoon, reports Bloomberg. The Fed wants the lenders to wait another week, but bank lawyers worry the plans will leak out. It's under discussion, JPM CFO Lake told an investor conference (transcript) Tuesday. XLF +0.6%[View news story]
    'Defying'? You must be crazy. They are not dumb. Someone is - LOL
    Mar 7 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of America (BAC) is engaged in "accounting arbitrage" says Manal Mehta, reserving far less for legal cases than it may have to pay out. If regulators forced the bank to properly account for the possible losses, it's likely they would disallow any capital returns and force BofA to continue socking away its profits. [View news story]
    Yeah, who is this 'Manal Mehta' anyway? GAAP chairman or something? How come I never heard this name?

    If not, why bother? A lot of people had said the world ended on Dec 21, 2012. We're all still here talking.
    Mar 6 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't buy rumors J.C. Penney (JCP -10.6%) may have a buyer, or a savior CEO will be brought in, writes Jeff Matthews. Steven Roth sold not because he was in trouble, not because of a margin call, but because he wanted to sell. Roth's as tied in as they get and he's on the board - would he be unloading his stake if he had an idea something game-changing was imminent? [View news story]
    People, you gotta understand what was the reason that Vornado got into JCP at first place.

    Vornado is a REIT, so its strategy and focus must be primarily focused on real estates.

    Initially, their teaming up with Bill Ackman must be like this (my own reasoning, not that I have their internal report to me): get JCP turned around (even not that much), then split the Real estates from the retailing side and Vornado to manage / benefit the real estates. Ackman is a hedge fund manager and can do anything he wants.

    Now, since the turn-around does not look like to happen overnight, and the potential of a real estates spun-off looks even more unlikely in several years, as a REIT, Vornado GOT to sell this pure retail turn-around story. Otherwise, its board would question CEO (gone) and Chairman's judgement and could go for their heads.

    So as you can see, Vornado's sale of JCP is purely strategic - due to its mandate as a REITs. I don't think it's a judgement call that reflecting Vornado's view that JCP is doomed.

    Now back to the retailing JCP: how many times you have seen in the history that a nation-wide retailer goes belly up in a single year? I can assure you, it is ZERO.

    At the worst, JCP can simply reverse everything Johnson has done and go back to its old self, with more than daily proms, etc, to generate sales like $150/SF. At the beginning of RJ's tenure, JCP is worth like what, $6 bn. Write down $1 bn or so assuming they are simply 'wasted', then still you got a $5 bn market cap company.

    That is just a simplistic baseline and the real potential of JCP would be much much higher. But everyone need to keep your head cool and be a little patient.

    Now for the JCP stock: Vornado sold 10 mn shares to DB, reported at $16 and change. Now what you think people in DB are, total idiots (some are, but definitely not everyone :-)). So if they take risk and bought JCP at $16/shr, what do you think how much DB value JCP? You still want to sell at $15? then you must be a total idiot then, and no more word waste for you.
    Mar 5 07:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can J.C. Penney Go? [View article]
    no clue, uh?

    That is why he is a billionaire and you're a 4-time/year JCP shopper. And most likely stay that way forever.

    Mar 5 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can J.C. Penney Go? [View article]

    Not his time yet. He only shop 4 times a year...
    Mar 5 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can J.C. Penney Go? [View article]
    You must be one of the 'typical' legacy JCP shoppers - 4 times a year, and everytime bring with tons of 50% or 70% coupons, plus a $10 vouchure.

    It's good the new JCP is getting rid of shoppers like those. No business can make money out of those tightwarts. JCP needs and will get new bloods.
    Mar 5 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can J.C. Penney Go? [View article]
    Yeah, you got the point.
    Mar 5 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can J.C. Penney Go? [View article]

    Funny name, serious business. Don't confuse a name and the real thing.
    Mar 5 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can J.C. Penney Go? [View article]
    That has been Bruce Berkowitz' play. I don't have that long-term patience.

    I am actually LONG JCP from here. And bet $10 on you for winning at year end. You want to take the bet? Come on, don't be a chicken if you are so sure of your 'analysis'.

    Mar 5 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A tale of two retailers: Analysts can't help but note the different directions Sears Holdings (SHLD +6.7%) and J.C. Penney (JCP -9.8%) trade in today as one retailer sees an insider buy and the other hears word that a REIT is selling. On the real estate front the divergence of results is clear: Sears Holdings is considered well-positioned and ahead of the curve while Maxim has a warning out that J.C. Penney's real estate might not be able to fetch enough to even pay off the company's long-term debt. [View news story]

    SHLD has been in dog house for the past what, 7 years. Price has been dropping from something like $175 to nowadays' $45. Now suddenly your guys think it's the greatest stock in the world now?

    So what have your guys been doing for the past several years, sleeping or were borned less than 10 years ago?
    Mar 5 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can J.C. Penney Go? [View article]
    Don't you know JCP has a vast amount of real estate?

    Wow, "the only way to possibly make money on Penney's right now is by going short..". Bet your house on this idea and let's re-connect here at the end of this year.
    Mar 4 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What J.C. Penney Sellers Are Missing [View article]
    I don't know about you, but it is pretty obvious to anyone with any sense of 'fashion' - the current JCP merchandises are definitely much better than the old (say, year ago) stuff laying around on floors.

    So you say they don't know how to merchandise any more?
    Feb 27 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney (JCP) trades weak in premarket action, down 4.3%, with Credit Suisse chiming in with a dour reiteration of its Underperform rating and Morgan Stanley chipping away at profit estimates on the retailer. Any kind of short-term trading in JCP looks as dangerous as ever with longs (Vornado, State Street, Pershing Square) and shorts (60M) duking it out. [View news story]
    You gotta believe in those with skins in, that is, put money where their mouths are!

    Analysts are a fickle bunch - their primary goal is to make a fame. So naturally the more radical, the better - assuming one turns out to be right. Thus they tend to make hundreds 'predictions' - 99% will turn out to be wrong. The one that hits, they will claim how smart they are.
    Feb 15 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A move by J.C. Penney (JCP) to increase its credit facility is proving worrisome to a number of bond analysts. Carol Levenson sums up the nervous vibe: "These hurried actions are not indicative of a financially healthy company." [View news story]
    LOL. That is why you never see a bond analyst making any money - they consistently are afraid the sky is going to fall.

    You do know that a credit facility is just like a home equity credit line (what an amateurish comparsion it is :-)). It's not issuing a new bond or any debt. Why you are scared of that?
    Feb 13 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Network: Additional Signs Point To Structural Insolvency [View article]
    Hey, Fidelity revealed in November, 2012 that they have taken a 10% stake. Fidelity as we all know, is Peter Lynch's previous house and definitely not a sell-side Wall Street firm. So you think they have not done anything before taking this position?

    Also can you simplify your extremely lengthy writting and just some bullet points with your major points and supporting evidence - that will be much much more helpful.

    Thanks for your second opinion. But we need strong evidence and fact.
    Feb 12 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment