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  • What Does Encana's Acquisition Say About The Return Potential Of Its Existing Asset Base?  [View article]
    Thanks a lot for the analysis. But I disagree with couple of your conclusions.

    First, capital allocation - ECA is not a bank, so it does not make any sense for it to hold something like $6 Bn on B/S, just for the sake to show to the world that it is financially sound, while earning nothing. ECA does not need that much capital to develop its other potential resources, where places like TMS is full of risks - you could easily dump $1 bn and it could turn out to be a dud. Better going in slowly and collect the whole industry's knowledge and experiment to see if TMS is a feasible commercial play. If I were ECA, I definitely would do this way.

    Second, diversification - now ECA has a close to 50-50 distribution between natGas and Oil/liquids, so strategically it is in a very good position to take advantage of whatever financially sound product. You don't want to rush into a unproven place, spend tons of money and finally prove that places like TMS is a commercial success, only to see natGas prices come back to 'normal' therefore becomes a favored product, while your newly discovered and expensive oil (with all the sunk cost) becomes a no-no.

    So I think ECA is in good track and mid- to long-term, should be a good investment candidate.
    Sep 30, 2014. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy's (SD) CEO James Bennett on Q1 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript  [View article]
    What's the big deal about earthquake? Just a little rattling and then you go back to your boring normal stuff. We have those little quakes in SoCal all the time, making life a little bit exciting.

    If you can not tolerate earthquake, you should go to live in Tokyo, Japan. I bet after one year, you would love to have small quakes :-)
    May 9, 2014. 08:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NCR Corp. Still Undervalued, But Not Helping Its Cause  [View article]
    With all due respect, I seriously doubt any excuse by stating something like 'it has already baked into...'. In most case, it isn't.

    That is why numbers are so important. And in NCR case, if any could figure out that number and it proves to be totally misunderstood by the few analysts following NCR, you could have a huge 'leg up', or many dollars in your pockets :-)

    Thanks a lot.
    May 1, 2014. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NCR Corp. Still Undervalued, But Not Helping Its Cause  [View article]
    Exactly. Given that NCR has $2,034 billion Retail revenue in 2013, and in Retail I would think those card readers should accounted for a big chunk of business, and that all of them are now needed to be replaced by Oct 2015 - all those point to a big upgrade cycle, thus big business for NCR, VeriFone, etc. Unless NCR does not have a big presence there - personally I saw a lot of VeriFone's readers but not many NCR's.

    Any insight?

    Thanks a lot.
    May 1, 2014. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NCR Corp. Still Undervalued, But Not Helping Its Cause  [View article]
    Thanks for a great synopsis. I am new on NCR, so can not keep wondering what are the street expectations of this company. Given an expected 10x or so forward P/E, and a 5.7x market cap/EBITDA, for a co in a well-established industry, those would be great numbers. Obviously that is not the case for current stockholders or day-traders as stock got hammered. Are they looking for like FaceBook kind of revenue growth in NCR?

    Another point I would like to raise: given the imminent roll out of EMV in the U.S., how much impact that would be on NCR or other peers?

    Thanks a lot.
    May 1, 2014. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Must Be In Denial To Bet Your Farm On SandRidge Energy At The Current Levels  [View article]
    Hi Dude,

    I am trying to figure out what you try to say (or sell ;-)). Even in your article SD does not appear to be very overvalued - Actually with your metric of EV/1P reserve of 15, it is quite attractive relative to others. You know 99.99999999% of people are neutral on any stock. So why bother with a 'neutral'?
    Apr 18, 2014. 02:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Environment For Bank Of America Continues To Improve  [View article]
    You are really a 'know nothing' type.
    Mar 27, 2014. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JAKKS Pacific off and running after upgrade  [View news story]
    This stock looks quite like a no-brain for buying. Don't know why there are so heavy a short portion out there, and still there.

    Here is a quite easy logic for valuation:

    Above $600 million revenue per year; let's simply assume a 4% profit margin, then there should have $24-$25 million earnings; and at current price, the market cap is about $160 million. So it's a 6.7X P/E stock. And kids are going to buy toys regardless recession or not; so you won't expect revenues going to drop much; and can anyone dispute a lousy 4% profit margin assumption? Any business can make above that, if they are seriously in business.

    So just wait and watch those no brain shorts get killed.
    Mar 11, 2014. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Is Ready To Outperform  [View article]
    Totally agree. This author(s) seems just woke up and used information at the end of 2012 to write this article.
    Mar 7, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi bet on emerging markets not paying off  [View news story]
    My understanding is that Citi's clienteles in EM are affluent people. If there is a FICO score there, I would say almost all of them would be at above 800! So talking about their high default on loans does not make too much sense. This is also backed by Citi's recent NCO rates in EM - very very low.
    Feb 14, 2014. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WPX Energy: Analyzing The $1.4 Billion Write-Off  [View article]
    OK, have done building up my WPX position, I am now free to talking the stocks without fearing driving up prices.

    There is a very straightforward logic / reasoning and that is so obvious. I have been wondering why the world all those people get so scared and dump WPX in drove.

    Here is the logic: Assume WPX at $19/share is more or less a 'fair' price - it's been sitting around here for more than half a year. Unless you think the whole world is stupid, or you're smarter than anyone else in the universe - in this case, gives us your 'fair value' of WPX; and BTW, why you're not the top one in Forbes' list yet? - anyway, assume $19 is the fair value. Then WPX found that its stakes in Marcellus now is not much valuable, so they wrote it down and charged $1.1 billion from the book, plus another $300 mn for Powder River. Big deal, $1.5 billion from a company with market cap of about $3 or $4 billions.

    If that is it, then not much to say and it is the end of story. But before everyone ducks behind a rock for cover, just ask a simple question: what has WPX done in the whole year of 2013? were they hidden in a cave, or they were actually doing some work?

    Seems they have done quite some work. At least I remember they have a well generating something like 2.2 Bcf in a year, and it is still keeping going. And seems they struck some oil in San Juan / Gallup area.

    I don't think those new findings are in their 2012 book. Therefore here is the very interesting part: It looks those new findings definitely more than compensated those craps in Marcellus. therefore simple math: WPX should have net gain - after the $1.5 billion write-down. Therefore their value should be more.

    And that is not the end of story yet. Those natural gases in Marcellus -they are not going to disappear, are they? when the world is going to run out of energy (again!) and start looking for anything, those 'assets' will become alive again and gotta be worth something (again). You can discount whatever way you like, but you're be an accounting master (that is, a crook) to make them worth $0 ;-)

    So what you think WPX now?
    Feb 13, 2014. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WPX Energy: Analyzing The $1.4 Billion Write-Off  [View article]
    Hello Richard,

    Thank you very much for the detailed and wonderful analysis.

    Get a quick question: do you have an estimate (no matter how rough it is) on how much new proved reserve WPX will have to add into its asset pool?

    Thank you very much.

    Best regards,
    Feb 13, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Tops Whisper, Why The Stock Could Drop  [View article]
    Hey, they probably reclassified tablet as 'Mobile' and very likely some touch-screen desktop as well, then reclassifies the same green-back as from mobile. Money is money, as they're all green. So what's the big deal that those tagged as 'mobile' surge while those left-over sink?

    Are those guys crazy in so crazy about this stock? Or they're just stupid?
    Jan 30, 2014. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can SandRidge Find A Solution For The Variability Of The Mississippian Play?  [View article]
    Thanks a billion! And thanks all.
    Jan 14, 2014. 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns  [View article]
    Agreed!

    I don't get that bicycle joke, even I am a joker :-) Anyway, this is not a comedy site and we're here to make money. So if there is money making opportunity, we put money in!

    After the GoM divestment, SD has about 300 MMboe. On a 'back-of-envelop' calculation, that has about a NAV equal to SD's current valuation. However, SD only has delineated 600,000 acres property. It has a total 1,900,000 acres in the area. So let's assume half of them are full of 'dry holes' - or lousy bicycles, the other half is more or less the same (any evidence not so, anyone?), then the valuation should be in the range of doubling up. That is most likely the reasoning of Cooperman (he never reveals to me, though).

    So the money-making opportunity...
    Jan 14, 2014. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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