Think-About-It

88 Comments

    • The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part II) [view article]
      the professor is good at saying nothing. Oct 02 02:48 PM
    • Where Do Investors Go from Here? [view article]
      Joe, how long can the dollar hold up? Oct 02 12:36 PM
    • The Amazing Dollar - Gold Correlation [view article]
      convertable at what rate? Oct 01 05:34 PM
    • The Short Case on KBH Homes [view article]
      I like your thoughts here but profitability is one thing and cash flow is quite another. What do your think of their cash from operations. I looked at past three years and past 4 quarters and they have managed to generate positive cash from operations. When shorting I perfer the accounting loss (which investors give a bit too much weight to) to be smaller than their net cash outflow from operations.

      Regarding valuation, how does KBH compare to it's peers?

      If you short it and plan to hold if for a year or so you need to take $1 or about 5% off the short price because of their dividend.

      I agree that housing has more to fall (I think another 20%) and won't recover quickly either so I'm eager to find a great short in this space. Thanks for the post.

      FYI, I'm short OWW. You may want to look at it.
      Sep 30 05:24 PM
    • Chinese Market Annihilated - Cramer's Lightning Round (9/24/08) [view article]
      Cramer's problem is that he is a stock picker during a paradigm change. We are in the very early stages of a long-term bear market for U.S. equities (combined with rising commodities, Asian market & falling dollar) so he is fighting an up hill battle to put it mildly.

      Sep 27 06:13 PM
    • We've Crossed the Line from Capitalism to Socialism [view article]
      Has anyone asked themselves why the problem is so widespread? Think about it. How could so many independent financial institutions opperating in different regions with different missions and different business models all make the same basic mistake of over-investing in residential real estate products (mortgages etc.)?

      The answer can not be the often touted "greed" because there is always a certain level of greed (and also generousity) that is more or less constant in people. Were people less greedy 10 years ago, more greedy over the past 5 years and now less greedy? Impossible.

      I think Peter Shiff found the answer. Ever since the dot com bubble burst and the events of 9/11 the Fed has relentlessly expanded the money supply at an accelerated pace while lowering interest rates. Both had the desired affect of inflating asset prices for all dollar denominated real assets including housing prices in general.

      Now here's the key. After watching housing steadily rise at a qick clip over a number of years market observers and participants RATIONALLY viewed this growth as occuring for fundamental reasons (must be strong demand for homes for it to occur across so many regions and over so many years). So they baked the recent elevated growth rates of real estate into their forecasts not realizing that the driving force behind escallating prices was non-fundamental -- inflation was sending false signals to RATIONAL market participants.

      You know the rest of the story.

      Perhaps the best way to generate a real return is to assume that we will see more of the same -- inflation and falling dollar -- and invest accordingly.
      Sep 22 12:56 AM
    • Massive Opportunity to Short the Dollar [view article]
      Chris B makes the best point for U.S. citizens. Shorting the Dollar long-term is insurance, period. Sep 13 01:05 AM
    • The Next Commodities Boom: Around the Corner? [view article]
      Does anyone have a favorite/strong currency other than the Renminbi to short the Dollar against? I think the Dollar will fall a lot more over the next 5 years but not sure which currency to pair it against.

      Disclosure: long CYB
      Sep 12 04:11 PM
    • Argentina and Brazil Abolish Dollar in Bilateral Trade [view article]
      The dollar may rally in the weeks/months ahead but longer term is will fall unless there is a major reversal in our nations debt, trade deficits and economic strength. None of these problems can be solved quickly. Sep 11 10:21 PM
    • No Relationship To Reality - Cramer's Mad Money (9/10/08) [view article]
      Sometimes Cramer adds value with his perspective and information but you can't put much weight on his buys & sells because he comments on every stock anyone asks about. When someone like Ken Hebner, Warren Buffett or Jim Rogers makes a strong buy or sell recommendation you can put a lot of weight into it because they are extreamly selective.
      Sep 11 11:41 AM
    • ETF Insights: South Korea, Ireland [view article]
      Thanks for your comments on EWY and PKX. Are you aware of an alternative way int invest in S. Korea's stock market because EWY has over 15% in Samsung? Do you know what price Buffett payed for PKX? Sep 06 07:07 PM
    • Gold Futures' Dirty Secret (Part II) [view article]
      Deepak, I believe he is saying they want to push prices down TEMPORARILY while they are adding to their positions. Sep 05 01:31 PM
    • Gold Futures' Dirty Secret (Part I) [view article]
      SB. It does happen. The price difference is because of the time difference. The value of future delivery does not equal the value of immediate delivery because of what can happen in between. Sep 05 01:21 PM
    • Gold Futures' Dirty Secret (Part II) [view article]
      Coba, I was wondering the exact same thing (it may be a standard footnote disclaimer and he disclosed his position in the final paragraph).

      Nicholas, do you see any problems buying GLD as a bullish play on gold prices?

      Sep 05 12:35 PM
    • New Currency ETN from Barclays [view article]
      Thanks again Ray. Appreciate your help. Sep 05 11:08 AM
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