Think-About-It's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/204371/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173930-why-is-china-booming-surprise-its-not-the-stimulus?source=feed#comment-767835 767835 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:43:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173620-five-reasons-china-is-not-a-bubble?source=feed#comment-764871 764871
Your reason #1 "Consumption Continues to be Strong" tells us nothing about bubble-status. Consumption was very strong in the U.S. right up to the moment our stock and Real Estate bubbles burst.

Your reason #2 "a transition to a service-related economy." What's the point? That services-heavy economies are less likely to reach bubble status? Again, I give you the U.S.

I'll pass on the others as it's past my bed time but would like to add that in my opinion China's high savings rate is not their problem or challenge as many economist/investors believe -- it is one of their strengths. Try growing an economy with low savings and see where that gets you.

You need savings to fund productive investments which raises living standards and enables more savings which fund more productive endevors which raises living standards and enables more savings... it is the virtuous cycle.

You can not consume your way to prosperity.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 03:58:48 -0500
Your reason #1 "Consumption Continues to be Strong" tells us nothing about bubble-status. Consumption was very strong in the U.S. right up to the moment our stock and Real Estate bubbles burst.

Your reason #2 "a transition to a service-related economy." What's the point? That services-heavy economies are less likely to reach bubble status? Again, I give you the U.S.

I'll pass on the others as it's past my bed time but would like to add that in my opinion China's high savings rate is not their problem or challenge as many economist/investors believe -- it is one of their strengths. Try growing an economy with low savings and see where that gets you.

You need savings to fund productive investments which raises living standards and enables more savings which fund more productive endevors which raises living standards and enables more savings... it is the virtuous cycle.

You can not consume your way to prosperity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168637-how-will-the-u-s-recover-from-the-debt-crisis?source=feed#comment-735063 735063
Don't forget that when Japan's real estate and stock market bubble burst they had two things going for them that we (the U.S.) currently lack. 1) They were the worlds largest creditor nation whereas we are the worlds largest debtor nation. 2) During the years following the POP global GDP was expanding at a healthy clip so they were able to sell many goods to their major trading partners whereas that is not a given for the U.S. over the next 5+ years. These two factors helped them "manage" their unemployment rate and dissipate social unrest.

Commodity based assets are not the only hedge against the debasement of our currency. Foreign currencies, foreign stocks, precious metals and shorting bonds can also work.]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:57:20 -0400
Don't forget that when Japan's real estate and stock market bubble burst they had two things going for them that we (the U.S.) currently lack. 1) They were the worlds largest creditor nation whereas we are the worlds largest debtor nation. 2) During the years following the POP global GDP was expanding at a healthy clip so they were able to sell many goods to their major trading partners whereas that is not a given for the U.S. over the next 5+ years. These two factors helped them "manage" their unemployment rate and dissipate social unrest.

Commodity based assets are not the only hedge against the debasement of our currency. Foreign currencies, foreign stocks, precious metals and shorting bonds can also work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168532-why-this-isn-t-your-daddy-s-recession?source=feed#comment-734906 734906
Unfortunately for the U.S. and most other countries government leaders the world over have used Keynes bogus theories to justify their interventions and power grabs. Even going as far as convincing the majority of people that inflation is good and deflation is bad -- if they can pull that trick off than the other deceptions are a piece of cake.]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 22:36:32 -0400
Unfortunately for the U.S. and most other countries government leaders the world over have used Keynes bogus theories to justify their interventions and power grabs. Even going as far as convincing the majority of people that inflation is good and deflation is bad -- if they can pull that trick off than the other deceptions are a piece of cake.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168493-global-growth-trends-asia-and-brazil?source=feed#comment-734886 734886 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:59:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167140-is-the-fed-really-printing-money?source=feed#comment-726489 726489
This line killed your credibility and I was going to get into it but "Smarty Pants" stated it admirably.

As Bill Fleckenstein says "In a social democracy with a fiat currency all roads lead to inflation."

Investing for deflation or low inflation is a high risk strategy with limited upside if you are right and a ton of downside if you are wrong...]]> Fri, 23 Oct 2009 00:39:54 -0400
This line killed your credibility and I was going to get into it but "Smarty Pants" stated it admirably.

As Bill Fleckenstein says "In a social democracy with a fiat currency all roads lead to inflation."

Investing for deflation or low inflation is a high risk strategy with limited upside if you are right and a ton of downside if you are wrong...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165663-when-will-deflation-turn-into-inflation-and-how-quickly?source=feed#comment-712298 712298
Our Keynesian economist and political leaders have hammered this message home for so long that we have come to accept it either intellectually or subconsciously. I cringe every time I read/hear someone say that deflation must be avoided as it hurts our economy or say that deflation was one of the "causes" or "problems" of the great depression.

Please read up on your Austrian Economics to fully grasp how falling prices are the by-product of a healthy, growing vibrant economy when the currency is not debased. I'm not talking about price collapses that occur when asset bubbles burst as we are experiencing in housing. That is not deflation of the general price level brought on by higher productivity, it is just the correction of a speculative bubble-price.

Once you understand and accept deflation as a good and desirable outcome of human achievement over time (think about how much more efficient we are in almost every area of life) I believe you will see higher prices for what they really are -- the result of government interference and manipulation and a back-door tax on the working class. And see central bankers, treasurers and politically connected financial institutions for what they are -- the primary beneficiaries of inflationary policies.

Our founding fathers (having just experienced the ravages of inflation and understanding the source) feared giving future politicians the ability to debase our currency and therefore stipulated in our constitution that only gold and silver could be money/legal tender. They knew what they were doing. Their thinking is not out-dated in today's high-tech global world, in fact, it is prescient.]]> Sun, 11 Oct 2009 03:27:12 -0400
Our Keynesian economist and political leaders have hammered this message home for so long that we have come to accept it either intellectually or subconsciously. I cringe every time I read/hear someone say that deflation must be avoided as it hurts our economy or say that deflation was one of the "causes" or "problems" of the great depression.

Please read up on your Austrian Economics to fully grasp how falling prices are the by-product of a healthy, growing vibrant economy when the currency is not debased. I'm not talking about price collapses that occur when asset bubbles burst as we are experiencing in housing. That is not deflation of the general price level brought on by higher productivity, it is just the correction of a speculative bubble-price.

Once you understand and accept deflation as a good and desirable outcome of human achievement over time (think about how much more efficient we are in almost every area of life) I believe you will see higher prices for what they really are -- the result of government interference and manipulation and a back-door tax on the working class. And see central bankers, treasurers and politically connected financial institutions for what they are -- the primary beneficiaries of inflationary policies.

Our founding fathers (having just experienced the ravages of inflation and understanding the source) feared giving future politicians the ability to debase our currency and therefore stipulated in our constitution that only gold and silver could be money/legal tender. They knew what they were doing. Their thinking is not out-dated in today's high-tech global world, in fact, it is prescient.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162939-pondering-cramer-s-call-to-issue-more-u-s-debt?source=feed#comment-688073 688073
I say start building your "short-Treasury" position now and increase it over time and on dips because it is impossible to know then the spike in rates will come or for that matter whether the increase will occur gradually. History favors the former as bubbles typically burst rather than gradually deflate.]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 15:52:00 -0400
I say start building your "short-Treasury" position now and increase it over time and on dips because it is impossible to know then the spike in rates will come or for that matter whether the increase will occur gradually. History favors the former as bubbles typically burst rather than gradually deflate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161658-trade-wars-understanding-complicated-u-s-china-relations?source=feed#comment-680238 680238
It's a vendor finance situation where the borrower (U.S.) is given an unlimited line of credit and predictably abuses it ultimately borrowing beyond capacity to repay except by means of a highly depreciated currency. U.S. citizens lose as their purchasing power declines and job opportunities vanish and the U.S. government loses as it's credit-worthliness and influence wanes.

Chinas' benefits are straight forward. Yes, they will have to take a hair cut on their dollar denominated assets but that's digestable. In the mean time they are progressing through their industrial revolution, building and buying capabilities and raising their standard of living.

Symbiotic relationships must be mutually beneficial to a significant degree. Owning more depreciating goods made in China is a diminimus benifit for the U.S.
]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 00:06:18 -0400
It's a vendor finance situation where the borrower (U.S.) is given an unlimited line of credit and predictably abuses it ultimately borrowing beyond capacity to repay except by means of a highly depreciated currency. U.S. citizens lose as their purchasing power declines and job opportunities vanish and the U.S. government loses as it's credit-worthliness and influence wanes.

Chinas' benefits are straight forward. Yes, they will have to take a hair cut on their dollar denominated assets but that's digestable. In the mean time they are progressing through their industrial revolution, building and buying capabilities and raising their standard of living.

Symbiotic relationships must be mutually beneficial to a significant degree. Owning more depreciating goods made in China is a diminimus benifit for the U.S.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158981-lone-pine-capital-s-melco-crown-stake-betting-on-a-lower-macau-gaming-revenue-tax?source=feed#comment-654072 654072 Sun, 30 Aug 2009 23:39:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157989-housing-strong-recovery-ahead?source=feed#comment-643852 643852
"Housing will rise quite sharply, even accelerating over the next year or two..."

For this guessing game I would use history as my guide. The history of bubbles popping suggest that they do no reflate "quite sharply." Occationally there is a dead cat bounce but that's all it is. I would look to a different asset class than the one that just imploded when searching for the next wave of accelerating growth.
]]> Mon, 24 Aug 2009 14:37:24 -0400
"Housing will rise quite sharply, even accelerating over the next year or two..."

For this guessing game I would use history as my guide. The history of bubbles popping suggest that they do no reflate "quite sharply." Occationally there is a dead cat bounce but that's all it is. I would look to a different asset class than the one that just imploded when searching for the next wave of accelerating growth.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147068-true-unemployment-numbers?source=feed#comment-576329 576329
I've read that total government expenditures now equal roughly 47% - 48% of U.S. GDP up handsomely from around 8% in 1900. Much of this expenditure must be for direct government (local, state & Fed) payrolls which ultimately is paid for by the private sector through taxation or inflation.

During this recession/depression it seams as though government workers are fairing much better on average at maintaining their jobs, hours, pay rates and retirement benefits than private sector workers. Would you care to guess or shed some light as to possibility of reporting unemployment related numbers on each group separately? Or something along these lines?
]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:39:44 -0400
I've read that total government expenditures now equal roughly 47% - 48% of U.S. GDP up handsomely from around 8% in 1900. Much of this expenditure must be for direct government (local, state & Fed) payrolls which ultimately is paid for by the private sector through taxation or inflation.

During this recession/depression it seams as though government workers are fairing much better on average at maintaining their jobs, hours, pay rates and retirement benefits than private sector workers. Would you care to guess or shed some light as to possibility of reporting unemployment related numbers on each group separately? Or something along these lines?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146249-china-as-an-investment-destination?source=feed#comment-572257 572257
My take away was that many of China's "opening-up" reform policies of the 80s [which provided much more diverse bottoms-up, entrepreneurial growth than the 90s growth which was more narrow and characterized by government directed big projects] have been repealed or are in the process of being made less affective as the Government reasserts its attempt to manage and plan their economy.

Any views on the message of this book or theme would be appreciated.]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:26:27 -0400
My take away was that many of China's "opening-up" reform policies of the 80s [which provided much more diverse bottoms-up, entrepreneurial growth than the 90s growth which was more narrow and characterized by government directed big projects] have been repealed or are in the process of being made less affective as the Government reasserts its attempt to manage and plan their economy.

Any views on the message of this book or theme would be appreciated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146175-another-stimulus-bill?source=feed#comment-572053 572053
So many intelligent people have been brain washed (by studying bogus keynsian theories) into thinking that inflation is good that it has become "common knowledge." If you fall into the camp of "inflation good, deflation bad" please do yourself a huge favor and read up on Austrian Economics.

Inflation is only good for a select few groups that have significant assets relative to their earnings and who invest heavily in inflation themes plus those who receive the new money before it filters through the economic system (eg., bankers). Everyone else suffers from inflation. Everyone!!]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:49:27 -0400
So many intelligent people have been brain washed (by studying bogus keynsian theories) into thinking that inflation is good that it has become "common knowledge." If you fall into the camp of "inflation good, deflation bad" please do yourself a huge favor and read up on Austrian Economics.

Inflation is only good for a select few groups that have significant assets relative to their earnings and who invest heavily in inflation themes plus those who receive the new money before it filters through the economic system (eg., bankers). Everyone else suffers from inflation. Everyone!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144755-inflation-as-inevitable-as-death-and-taxes?source=feed#comment-572029 572029 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:33:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146122-is-gold-a-hedge-on-uncertain-dollar-outlook?source=feed#comment-569474 569474 You have a way with words! LOL]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 03:15:01 -0400 You have a way with words! LOL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146271-home-prices-in-2014-early-macroshares-trading-says-dead-flat-from-here?source=feed#comment-569453 569453
Also, there is the time value of money. You need to discount expented money that is 5 years out back to today.

Nobody that bought DMM today at 31 is expecting to get 31 dollars returned to them five years from now. Add the risks of this new product and definite carring costs and the built-in expected decline must be more than you suggest. ]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:39:09 -0400
Also, there is the time value of money. You need to discount expented money that is 5 years out back to today.

Nobody that bought DMM today at 31 is expecting to get 31 dollars returned to them five years from now. Add the risks of this new product and definite carring costs and the built-in expected decline must be more than you suggest. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146228-would-you-buy-this-stock?source=feed#comment-569148 569148
I have clients that are overweight personal RE and I can see where DMM would be valuable especially if they are planning on selling/retiring in next 5 years and want some protection from falling parices.

Also, you are young, don't have lots of $$ and want to invest in RE property UMM can provide similar benefits without the transaction costs or assumption of a mortgage.
]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:44:17 -0400
I have clients that are overweight personal RE and I can see where DMM would be valuable especially if they are planning on selling/retiring in next 5 years and want some protection from falling parices.

Also, you are young, don't have lots of $$ and want to invest in RE property UMM can provide similar benefits without the transaction costs or assumption of a mortgage.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145882-is-smart-money-betting-on-inflation?source=feed#comment-567957 567957
Bigmoney asked: "Where will inflation show up" My guess is that it will be all around you but more-so in non-durable goods such as Oil, agriculture and precious metals. Yes, healthcare and education will continue growing faster than the CPI but not sure how to invest in those two sectors purely on an inflation theme. Areas sensitive to higher interest rates like housing and stocks (in general) will not experience the same inflation boost as others mentioned.

]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:44:25 -0400
Bigmoney asked: "Where will inflation show up" My guess is that it will be all around you but more-so in non-durable goods such as Oil, agriculture and precious metals. Yes, healthcare and education will continue growing faster than the CPI but not sure how to invest in those two sectors purely on an inflation theme. Areas sensitive to higher interest rates like housing and stocks (in general) will not experience the same inflation boost as others mentioned.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145806-u-s-government-spending-on-social-benefits-is-rising?source=feed#comment-567948 567948
I have an open question. Does anyone know of a decent sized country that is currently moving away from socialism towards capitalism? Please don't say China as they are undoing much of the opening that took place in the 80s.]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:21:05 -0400
I have an open question. Does anyone know of a decent sized country that is currently moving away from socialism towards capitalism? Please don't say China as they are undoing much of the opening that took place in the 80s.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145892-a-look-at-china-s-top-five-adrs-by-market-cap?source=feed#comment-567945 567945 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:13:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145094-a-complete-guide-to-agriculture-etfs?source=feed#comment-562680 562680 If you have to ask which commodities to concentrate on then you should stay diversified across the entire ag sector.

Personally, I own three (ag, oil and precious metals) and am looking to add base metals once I believe the global recover has staying power... not there yet, in my opinion.]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:41:03 -0400 If you have to ask which commodities to concentrate on then you should stay diversified across the entire ag sector.

Personally, I own three (ag, oil and precious metals) and am looking to add base metals once I believe the global recover has staying power... not there yet, in my opinion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145296-starve-the-economic-beast-part-3?source=feed#comment-562371 562371
Good article but weak "solution." Moving money from 'bad big banks' to 'good small banks' will not solve our systemic financial problems.

I propose that a grass roots effort to end central banking in America would strike at the source of the problem. Hopefully Ron Paul's latest book "End the Fed" will have an impact beyond the libertarian niche. If we eliminate the Federal Reserve System and fractional banking, thereby returning to a pre-1913 banking system, we would experience sounder economic growth (based on fundamentals not credit stimulation) and mild business cycles similar to our 19th century results.

For anyone interested in trying to figure out what the next few years might look like for the U.S. I recommend reading "America's Great Depression" by Murray Rothbard. You will not be dissapointed in the content, analysis or applicability to our current situation.
]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 13:45:08 -0400
Good article but weak "solution." Moving money from 'bad big banks' to 'good small banks' will not solve our systemic financial problems.

I propose that a grass roots effort to end central banking in America would strike at the source of the problem. Hopefully Ron Paul's latest book "End the Fed" will have an impact beyond the libertarian niche. If we eliminate the Federal Reserve System and fractional banking, thereby returning to a pre-1913 banking system, we would experience sounder economic growth (based on fundamentals not credit stimulation) and mild business cycles similar to our 19th century results.

For anyone interested in trying to figure out what the next few years might look like for the U.S. I recommend reading "America's Great Depression" by Murray Rothbard. You will not be dissapointed in the content, analysis or applicability to our current situation.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143216-why-we-re-short-haverty-furniture?source=feed#comment-549785 549785 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 02:01:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142158-top-10-etfs-for-a-rising-china?source=feed#comment-539941 539941
Question:
Was there any reason you did not mention an agriculture ETF or Brazil via EWZ to go along with your theme?

]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:00:34 -0400
Question:
Was there any reason you did not mention an agriculture ETF or Brazil via EWZ to go along with your theme?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141594-china-s-economic-ascendancy-part-2?source=feed#comment-535353 535353 Thank you for your perspective. I think you nailed it but you know there is always the chance that given a taste of capitalism/prosperity the masses may eventually get a better form of government but I would require a bloody revolt. If anything like the U.S.'s civil war, that would be the buy of a life time.

Ques: Does anyone know if Hong Kong's GDP is included in China's figure?

FYI: I think Taiwan may be a better and safer play on China's growth.]]> Sun, 07 Jun 2009 02:08:46 -0400 Thank you for your perspective. I think you nailed it but you know there is always the chance that given a taste of capitalism/prosperity the masses may eventually get a better form of government but I would require a bloody revolt. If anything like the U.S.'s civil war, that would be the buy of a life time.

Ques: Does anyone know if Hong Kong's GDP is included in China's figure?

FYI: I think Taiwan may be a better and safer play on China's growth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139178-will-china-stay-the-capitalist-course?source=feed#comment-516119 516119 Sun, 24 May 2009 12:08:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137551-looking-to-buy-bric-the-abc-s-are-better-part-i?source=feed#comment-503718 503718 ]]> Thu, 14 May 2009 11:40:57 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131970-when-expecting-a-40-total-decline-in-housing-is-practically-bullish?source=feed#comment-475813 475813 ]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:30:44 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132588-inverse-and-leveraged-etfs-use-with-care?source=feed#comment-474444 474444 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:11:26 -0400