Think-About-It

U.S. Dollar: The Best of Times, The Worst of Times

To: American in Paris,

This is an investment website. Please take your ratical political views elsewhere.

Potash Stocks Sinking on Uralkali News

Can you estimate how much of the price drop is due to reduced shipping costs?

Don't Short the Fed Yet

I can understand not shorting thresuries today but for technical and short-term reasons only. At some point the treasury bubble will be ready to pop and when it does it will be a great opportunity for shorting.

Let the Gov try to lower long-term rates over the comming months and let the deleveraging play out a little longer, then start building your position in TBT.

The author sates the following which I dissagree with:

"The Chicken Littles love to tell stories about how the Chinese are crazy for buying 30 Year Treasury Bonds at 3.5% and will soon take their money home for domestic investment for higher returns. This logic is flawed for two reasons. 1) A purchase of Treasuries increases in return if a government believes that its currency could possibly devalue versus the USD in some point in the future. In such case, the USD denominated Treasuries provide a highest quality hedge against any internal stability risk and also against lagging relative performance for China versus the US economy. 2) Besides the Fed Discount rates, the Fed also has the ability to control rates by choosing where on the yield curve it issues debt..."

It is the USD that will weaken moreso than the Renminbi which will provide further motivation for China and other countries to divest away from US treasuries.

China Cooks Its Books? I'm Shocked!

Why did you bother to write an "article" with no information whatsoever?

Caterpillar on Mining and Commodities

Thanks for the post.

Why Did Peter Schiff Think the U.S. Dollar Would Collapse?

My opinion of Schiff is that he is an excellent economist but only an ordinary investor. His economic analysis was spot on but he was unable to translate it into successful investment strategies. At least not yet.

Listen to Shiff for economics but follow Jim Rogers for investment strategies.

The Inflation Time Bomb

Investing in the inflation theme (whether shorting L-T treasuries, buyin Gold or commodities) offers a good cost-benefit ratio because the cost of getting in a little to early is low as alternative investments offer low returns, while the benefit of preserving purchasing power if/when inflation builds up or spikes is enormous.

In other words if you are wrong and inflation does not kick in you lose little but if you don't invest to protect yourself or benefit from inflation and it hits us hard than you win big time.

Disclosure: Long DGP, TBT

James Grant Wants to Know: Who Will Buy Our Greenbacks?

"For all of the elegance and simplicity inherent in a hard currency, it is also a straight jacket. There is much to be said for the modern method. If the people who we choose to administer that system showed more wisdom..."

Tom, you are dreaming. Wake up!! Human nature is what it is, not what you wish it to be. Therefore, the best system is the one that works best when people blunder and the human element is minimized. There is only one system that does this and has stood the test of time -- a hard (usually Gold) currency system. End of story.

Goldman Sachs: Perils in the Fine Print

Rakesh,
Thank you for your thoughtful overview of GS. Now I will have to do some digging.

Do you think there a better short candidate in the financial space?

Fast Money Investment Advice: Turn the Volume Down

I like your short piece and would offer an adendum; turn CNBC's FastMoney off. Just more noise.

The Double Case for Shorting Middle East ETFs

Is there an inverse (bear mareket) ETF for this?

Citigroup Report Further Fuels Debate About the Future of Gold

"Socialism cannot Compete"... very true. Therefore a good long-term investment must be shorting U.S. equities because we are rapidly becoming France.

There are three long-term inevitables (not two): Dealth, Taxes & Inflation.

Service-Based Economy Is Progress? Show Me the Money

!RulesNoRules
"The free market is always right. Capital and investment flow to where the market is the most free. Oddly, that is China and India... "

I urge readers to reread this guys comment because his conclusions are spot on. The article starts off fine but the author's conclusions are off base. Today's glaring failures of the U.S. are the tipping point from getting off the "free-markets" path decades ago. We have been gradually adopting socialist principles as we keep moving closer to the French economic model at an accelerating rate. At this critical time we should go back to adopting a Hong Kong economic model but that is as likely as snow in South Africa.

And you can be damn sure that future history books will teach us the wrong lessons (that this is a failure due to greed, capitalism run amok and lack of regulatory oversight).

Ludwig Von Mises... we need you more than ever!

The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3)

<The last remaining bubbles of American finance - Treasuries and the US Dollar - will burst and like all burst bubbles,it will be a mess.>

You hit the nail on the head. Short the USD by buying Gold (and at a later date other commodities) and short long-term treasuries by buying TBT.

The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part II)

the professor is good at saying nothing.