Think-About-It

Re-Entering China: A Plan Comes Together

China is assendant in every way possible. They can't be stopped externally. Only a shift back to a closed society would reverse their current course and that does not look like it is in the cards.

Their economic growth will be messy, lumpy and cause many social upheavals within their borders but if the government maintains its current economic/fiscal policies China will blossom into an ecomomic giant.

FXI or other broad Chinese stocks market indicies can only be called overvalued by someone with a very short-term time horizon. Don't invest in China for short-term gains. The big money will be made by those who can hold shares for a decade or more.

Disclosure: Long MCHFX, FEED, HOGS, MPEL

The Great Bubble of China: Next to Pop?

Jim Rogers vs. Frank Rong. Sorry Frank, but I can't see you winning this one. When Rogers makes a major long-term call as he has done with China (even moving there from U.S.) you sure as hell had not bet against him. His track record is 2nd to none.

There are risks in every country & market and plenty in China as Howard9 pointed out. However, any serious global investor seeking growth should have some China investments for the long haul. It is that simple.

All China's current problems (with the possible exception of desertification) will pass and be replaced by different problems but the overall momentum and drive will continue to push China forward.

How do you think the U.S. looked to outsiders as an investment during our civil war circa 1863? How did we look during great depression etc... Don't let the problems of the day prevent you from investing in China long bull run.

The Case for Buying China Now

I think a better way to invest in China is to:

A) buy MCHFX Matthews China Fund which is very well managed and gives you much broader exposure than FXI with plenty of upside.

B) buy RJI (commodities Index Fund)

These can be your core "china investment" which you can augment with individual stocks that are either in China or will benefit from china's assent.

There are many risks to investing in China that the author glances over or simply ommits, however, I agree with him that long-term (10+ years) offers a great risk/reward for investors. It takes time for people to wake up to "game changers" [similar to what Michael Porter refers to as "disruptive technologies" in his Competitive Strategy books]. China's assent is a global game changer in many ways and any serious long-term investor must consider making investments that benefit from this.

Discloser: Own MCHFX, RJI, FEED, MPEL (watching BIDU, CHL, CTRP, LFC)

China's Impending Financial Crisis

Where is the long-term thinking?

China is assendant and can continue increasing their standard of living and global competitiveness for decades. The RNM will follow right along as the government stays fiscally conservative. There are no risk-free investemnts but I just don't see much downside risk for a long-term investor that is long the RNB.

Disclosure: long CYB

Good Time to Buy Chinese Currency: Follow the 'Hot Money'

James V, thanks for the explanation. Now I can easily see how the Chinese Governments balance sheet is affected by trade between private companies. Does trade between free market governments (say Canana & U.S.) work the same way?

Also, does it work the same way in the Euro zone even though they use the same currency?

Good Time to Buy Chinese Currency: Follow the 'Hot Money'

Answer: Buy CYB or CNY. I own CYB which pays a money market rate plus or minus any change in exchange rates between $USD & Yuan.

I have a dumb question. Everyone says that if there is a trade imbalance then one government adds to its current account while the other draws down their current account (lowering reserves or adding to their debt ala USA). But isn't that only true if the trade happens directly between governments? If if happens between private enterprises how does that translate to the government's respective reserves or current accounts?