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Corporate Bully of the Day: Hertz

This is clearly frivilous and is dangerous encroachment on freedom of speech. The lawsuit will surely be dismissed and if were Audit I would move for sanctions. If I were the judge, I would impose massive sanctions on Hertz even if Audit did not ask for any.

Internet-Enabled TVs Threaten DVDs, Physical Formats

no no no - redbox makes money from first sale doctrine -re-rent the same disc - for digital files, they have to pay for EVERY single download - this kills the redbox, netflix business model

On Aug 26 09:03 AM casey00001 wrote:

> You are missing a key player Redbox. The ability to go to a local
> kiosks and get a movie for a buck. They are at McDonalds, Walgreens,
> Walmarts among other locations. They could easily switch to downloadable
> format where you insert your own USB. I am not going to rely on Microsoft
> nor my Internet provider for telling me what I can watch and when
> (including advertisements). Both microsoft and internet service providers
> will hose me every chance they get.

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

very well written - it is not getting better but worst - the better than expected earnings are mostly the result of cost cutting which is merely a link in the vicious depressionary cycle we are in. at least in my household, it is getting worse as we are pulling back more and more as wife still cannot find a decent job and unemployment is to run out soon.

I would also think that between the baby boomers, retirees, and close retirees would pull out of the market and never look back once they get back a decent portion of the vast wealth that they have lost over the last two years. Because of this, I cannot imagine a V recovery - but more of a crash burn and a decade or two slow recovery. I just took advantage of this rally and put our 401(k)s into case today. I would rather give up 20% gains than see 50%+losses at this time.

Why Netflix Is a Short

this write up is clearly coming from a big short that expects good numbers from netflix but wants to try to stifle the stock price advance. one that really wanted to take a future short position, would be silent, watch the stock price advance and short at the higher levels

Why Netflix Is a Short

netflix is a cheap alternative to premium channels with an occasional new release here and there - that plus the streaming for an added bonus at a very low price. I just dumped my premiums channels and saving $41 a month - the three out plans is less than half that and I get the movies I want to watch not what HBO is showing and watch when I want to. HBO and showtime have a lock now under agreement but they could lose this going into the future and netflix streaming, with its loyal sub base, brand recognition and ever increasing scale, could easily become the go to company for the release windows that the premium channels currently occupy-also at current rate of growth netflix could double its subs and income in 2-3 years, and still move up from there. Plus with USPS in dire straights, they will continue to work in partnership with netflix to push up sub levels and bring more mail to service. You should be considering riding this one up and not waiting 5-10 years in the hopes of riding it down.

Netflix: Cover Alert on Short Position

you should have stuck to your guns - netflix is going down - you panick you lose - zero subscriber growth so far this quarter - not something that should be coming out of a growth company priced as such and a "recession proof" company

Netflix: High Flier or Falling Star?

I am suspect of its recession proof status - Netflix subs were falling significantly into October 2008 and bounced big after the Xbox streaming was enabled - as many people signed up to try this service - thus lowering SAC significantly - the streaming hype has appeared to fade per Alexa.com reach charts for Netflix -

Blockbuster's Troubles, And What They Mean for Netflix

and NFLX will end up going the route that blockbuster after the masses convert to digital streaming devices- uh and please dont tell me that NFLX will dominate the digital streaming market - it is just not going to happen (either it will follow cd music model where everyone can sell the movies/tv and pay based on views - or there will be very long windows between a la cart rentals going into the all you can watch subscription service)

The Rise of Digital Media (non physical)

first with Blockbuster and mom and pop B&Ms declining, Redbox will explode with kiosks popping up everywhere (as it is already) and .99 cents dvd rentals will become the norm in the industry (further killing the B&Ms).

while this is happening NFLX dvd by mail is eroding

next digital rentals start going at .99 cents as the norm (amazon and itunes already has a few of these) - cheaper easy streaming devices replace the DVD and blu-ray players - bly-ray rentals $1.99

while this happens Redbox will start eroding

next comes the boom in Digital Movie Collections - with cheaper portable (or not so portable) harddrive storage and ability to stream throughout house to any tv - this is the ultimate destination

while this happens, physical DVDs sales are falling off a cliff and digital movies sales and downloads overtake physical DVD sales on revenue

I give the complete timeline of this to be between 4-7 years.

Netflix Competitors Can Only Play Catch-Up

sorry - streaming is a deadend for NFLX (they could be easily priced out by cable through tweaking internet prices and cable setting up own streaming service)- they are losing money in streaming right now and they are better off not pushing into this area to keep the dvd alive longer - and they are about to get hit by a redbox explosion in the physical area (coinstar making a big move here) - the only thing that made NFLX streaming any good was Starz Play - look at the Alexa.com page views since that deal was announced - the hook up with xbox helped compund that deal - but Starz Play is not cheap - $5.99 per subscriber the cheapest only if you have Verizon - even if NFLX got a better deal say $2 bucks pur user - this is going to add up - and Starz Play will have to increase fees cause they are going to lose fees from cable companies for trying to cut them out - Starz is probably going to shoot itself in foot here (they might not have realized the amount of people that would be streaming to TV - even Starz's website only wanted Stars Play downloads to go to handheld and protable devices, not to TVs) - HBO wont sign on with NFLX - they dont want to compete with themselves and they make to much money from cable to risk changing the game - hence NFLX sent out notice to customers if they would be will to pay $10 bucks more a month for HBO -

i would say follow the cd music model to see where streaming is going in the future (anyone can use it but must pay royalties based on views); DVD has lagged a bit behind, but with better compresion techniques, more broadband, bit torrents usage is growing especially in this economy - and is following the napster MP3 path. But there is one wrench here - and this is what cable/telco companies are doing now - (before with MP3 they did not care because they were not losing rev from movies and VOD) they are montioring users for illegal downloads and sending warning letters and bandwidth caps to stop bit torrent from spreading - this will allow hollywood to charge more through limited pipeline and this is good for NFLX dvd physical

Two Growth Stocks for a Dismal Economy

yeah netflix - the poor mans cable - watch all the movies you want when the picture stutters constantly and looks like crap - go for it - i'll stick with my HD subscriptions from cable thanks - cannot believe all the pumping of a rhapsody wannabe for movies and tv - streaming is not a profitable future for the middleman (it will be srpread out to much like music)- the only thing NFLX streamings got going for it is its Starz deal, which NFLX got some sort of special deal on but dont expect that to last as subs grow on streaming (is people really disconnecting Starz cable to get cheap Starz streaming Starz no like that) - NFLX is still all about the DVD mail rental - peeps still need internet - they can get that Starz Play streaming for only $5.99 if they are with Verizon Fios. NFLX charge what $7.99 for Starz only streaming - looks like being priced out already

Streaming Service Did Not Drive Netflix's Increased Earnings

I disagree - the Starz Play is a significant benefit for NFLX subscribers - alone it is $9.99 from Staz website - although NFLX sells it for $7.99

Netflix Earnings Show Accelerating Move to Digital: Can Others Keep Apace?

caution -NFLX will be priced out in streaming - More broadband caps coming - caution

increased broadband fees for heavy users plus the tiered premium packages for streamers - it is difficult to see how NFLX can compete on price in the future of streaming

see here time warner expanded its bandwidth caps because of online video streamers - possibly coming to a city near you
www.cbsnews.com/storie......

i wouldnt bet against the cable/telcom companies

although NFLX will most likely fail at trying to become a media content distributor over the internet- streamers are still going to get a huge choice of online subscription plans to sign up to, plus with discounts through cable companies and an exemption from bandwidth caps for streaming. (see Starz Play is available to FIOS cusomters for $5.99 see here - www.starz.com/channels...; Lions Gate with others is coming out with a monstor online subscripton streaming plan (the Epix channel)- see here news.cnet.com/8301-102...... ; also HBO is coming out with its own streaming subscription plan - and free to Time Warner customers - see here www.hbo.com/events/hbo...... (this is what NFLX wants to add for $10 more a month)

I may even partake in some of these plans if cable does not get up to speed with their VOD subscription offerings. Many of the new TVs are also allowing connection to the internet so you could stream the plans. Also sure that all the game consoles, and other boxes will allow for these plans in near future.

so although NFLX is spending alot of mail rental profits on streaming as an added benefit to subscribers with no additional costs currently - and this is clearly good for them so to gain customers and not to lose customers to other DVD rental competitors - it appears that NFLX will be priced out of any full transition to streaming in the future - and this is so even if broadband caps are not put into place cause cable telcom could easily tweak broadband and online streaming packages to price out NFLX

the studios hate NFLX redbox blockbuster and similar services and are trying to figure ways out of this area - and with DVD sales down significantly a transition to all digital may come alot sooner than later

maybe that is why insiders are selling like crazy cause they know NFLX is doomed

very exciting stuff happening though with digital media over the next year -

Is Netflix the Next Apple?

do a search on bandwidth caps and you will see where the industry is going to prevent NFLX streaming video and the like from riding their pipeline to take business. NFLX umlimited download steaming is a crappy selection right now - this is because the studios will not allow all you can eat for the good titles.

I would only buy NFLX if you think that their DVD rental business will last long enough to provide a good ROI (which I do not think it will at current multiples) - i would not bet on it for streaming video as to easy to get into and to much competition already - and the killer being the industry wide conversion to bandwidth caps

I am short NFLX - see my post here for reasons why I think the company will not survive

messages.finance.yahoo...

Yahoo/Microsoft: Dead Deal Talk Replaced with New Buzz

how is it a win for msft either way?? they are not going to increase their search share significantly anytime soon - same goes for Yhaoo at this pace - IMO it is in both companies best interest to team up so that they could market their combined search share and take rev away from goog

Which Is the Better Investment, Apple or Research In Motion?

Apple is probably a better investment as it is more diversified and safer. Another advantage RIMM has though (at least for the short term), and I have noticed this with at least 2 family members will gain those who will not switch carriers for the iphone. I have two family members who love the iphone, but have since purchased the blacberry because they would never leave verizon.