Chipstocktrader

Semiconductors: Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full?

Ahh...the words of a true LDKer...so unmistakable.

Semiconductors: Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full?

You mentioned LDK. In all my years of stock trading I have never found a group of stock devotees for a stock like this one - a following akin to early Scientologists, or maybe a quasi-religious Islamic cult threatening non-believers who lampoon their devotion. I don't know anyone who hasn't lost thousands of dollars (on balance) in the stock, or who wishes they hadn't gotten involved in the circus constantly surrounding it. With all the other great names happening in solar - and the fact that the sector seems to travel as a group anyway - I haven't felt the need for further involvement in LDK. I put whatever remaining LDK money I had in Rene Solar (SOL) at $8/share (pretty much the same business model as LDK - except with great analyst support), and in YGE, AKNS, TSL, ESLR, and STP, and have never looked back.

Semiconductors: Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full?

What signs do you look for when its time to bail?

Small caps - 100-200% up from the lows of the cycle. Large caps - 75-100%. Major tops in Semiconductor seem to run in Februaries and sometimes Julys. Bottoms in August, October, and April. When to sell? Always the hardest to pick.