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mwillems1

mwillems1
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  • Dunkin Brands (DNKN): Q4 EPS of $0.34 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $161.7M (-4% Y/Y) misses by $9.05M. (PR[View news story]
    First reaction: same story like Starbucks. Revenues are short compared to analyst expectations but EPS is slightly better probably thanks to lower commodity prices and improved productivity.
    Jan 31, 2013. 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Green Mountain An Attractive Takeover Target? [View article]
    The acquirer of Caribou Coffee and Peet's Coffee (Joh A Benckiser)has also a stake of about 15% in DE Master Blenders (the coffee business spun off from Sara Lee).
    I am sure that they are serious about being in the coffee industry and that a consolidation battlle is underway.
    I cannot understand that Mondelez would be interested in GMCR as they are focusing mainly on the market outside of the USA with their coffee brands Jacobs and Carte Noire or did I overlook something?
    Dec 21, 2012. 05:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Starbucks For The Long Term [View article]
    Hi Mathias,

    In other aticles on Seeking Alpha, it appears that Verismo does not score well due to the milk pods.
    Consumers prefer fresh milk to be added to their espresso.
    Nov 17, 2012. 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Starbucks For The Long Term [View article]
    Hi Mathias,
    As usual you have done a good analysis and research and this is much appreciated.
    My "best guess" is that you are too optimistic regarding the following:
    - the evolution of the operating margin of GCPG as I believe that the proposition of Verismo in Single Serve is inferior to Nespresso and GMCR/Lavazza
    - the evolution of the opearating margin of the region CAPAC as I expect the OPM% to decrease once SBUX is expanding more and more in 2nd and 3rd cities.

    What could be the impact of both elements on the valuation of SBUX?
    Nov 14, 2012. 04:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Swings Back At Starbucks [View article]
    Based on my coffee experience of living in Australia where "fresh milk based espresso coffees" are liked, I do not think that Rivo will compete against Verismo. The main competitor for this niche market in the single serve coffees will be Nespresso from Nestle.
    Nov 8, 2012. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) start to pick up steam, now up 4.1% premarket. In the Rivo vs. Verismo debate it looks like the company has at least one advantage it can push with its machine using fresh milk instead of the powdered milk used by its rival's product. [View news story]
    The "real" espresso lovers will indeed go for the Nespresso and GMCR/Lavazza single serve solutions.
    Here in Australia (an espresso drinking country next to instant), Nespresso is the leader followed by Lavazza.
    New players entered the market in the last month with L'Or Espresso (compatible with Nespresso machines) and Gloria Jeans with the Caffitaly machine while there is also a "value" proposition from Expressi (sold by Aldi)
    Nov 8, 2012. 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A plan by Starbucks (SBUX +0.6%) to successfully grow from 600 stores to 1.5K stores in China by 2016 hinges on its ability to adapt the tastes of consumers to "bitter" coffee and come up with fruitier varieties. Other major challenges the company is taking on in the nation is how to appeal to the middle class with its restaurants considered expensive as well as creating a takeout business from ground zero. [View news story]
    The challenges for SBUX going forward will be:
    -the profitability of the stores being opened in the second and third tier cities
    -the expansion of boutique coffee shops (Lavazza, Illy) and the more premium international coffee chains like Costa Coffee
    Nov 7, 2012. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Attractive Valuation, And Several Positive Catalysts Yet To Come [View article]
    Hi Sabina,
    I would like to share 2 remarks with you, being:
    - I do not think that the Verismo machine will be a success in Europe and Australia where Nespresso, Lavazza, Senseo, Aldi's Expressi and others have a strong position
    - The expansion in China by setting up stores in the second tier and third tier cities will result in a decrease of the operating margin%

    Looking forward to your comments
    Nov 7, 2012. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coffee wars: While Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR +1.2%) maintains a healthy market share advantage in the U.S. at the moment and Nestle (NSRGY.PK) is a force to be reckoned with in Europe, the battle for China is wide open. Though the consumption rate in the tea-drinking nation is still low, the prospect for lush growth is too enticing for Starbucks (SBUX +0.1%), Nestle, and new entrant Mondelez International (MDLZ) to ignore. The big question still to be answered is if Chinese consumers will skip drinking filtered coffee to jump right into the single-serve and store-bought varieties. [View news story]
    Dear Songyu,

    I would appreciate if you could reply on the following questions:
    - which are the most important coffee companies selling roast & ground coffee in the super/hypermarkets in China?
    - which are the most important coffee companies selling instant (soluble and mixes) in the super/hypermarkets?

    Thanks a lot,
    Marcel
    Nov 4, 2012. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR -3.5%) will drop the prices on its Keurig brewer in order to stay competitive. A new Keurig Vue model will launch at $209.99, while the original Vue model is lowered by $20 to $229.99. Starbucks (SBUX -0.8%) has its single-serve brewing machine, the new Verismo 580 model, listed at $199 on its website. [View news story]
    Thanks a lot for the comparison Verismo/Expressi.
    The Expressi is quite popular here in Australia and I will buy one very soon.
    Douwe Egberts Master Blenders launched their L'Or Espresso capsules 2 weeks ago to be used in the Nespresso machines
    Sep 29, 2012. 05:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks (SBUX +1.8%) says it will offer a 2-for-1 deal on K-Cup packs this weekend in another indication that the company plans to see its Verismo machine and pods make K-cups obsolete in the future. The heat is now on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR +5.4%) to make a strong play of its own to stop Verismo from building up too much momentum in front of the holiday season. [View news story]
    Hi Josef,
    1 capsule with Aldi in Australia costs Aud 0.37
    L'Or Espresso from DE Master Blenders was launched 2 weeks ago at Aud 0.60 per capsule (normal price)
    Sep 27, 2012. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) CEO Larry Blanford tries to draw a distinction between the espresso single-serve system of rival Starbucks with its products as a counter to the argument that the company faces a serious competitive threat in the segment. He notes GMCR is in the filtered coffee business, while Starbuck delves in the "very small" espresso market. GMCR +0.9% premarket. (Previous: Blanford on GMCR growth[View news story]
    The single serve "espresso" market is worldwide not a ...."very small" market as it represents about 45% of the total single serve market.
    Nespresso is the market leader but others like DE Master Blenders and Lavazza are entering this market
    Sep 20, 2012. 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain (GMCR) CEO Larry Blanford gives an upbeat interview to the WSJ, pointing out that while sales growth is falling, it's still going to be 15%-20%, which few other companies in GMCR's sector achieve. Blanford's also not worried about Starbuck's (SBUX) single-serve brewing machines, as they're espresso products while GMCR's are for filtered coffee. [View news story]
    The predicted growth of GMCR (15 to 20%) is lower than the estimated growth worldwide of the Single Serve market (around 30%) and the growth achieved by Nespresso.
    Sep 20, 2012. 02:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks And Commodity Costs: What Analysts Are Not Aware Of [View article]
    Hi Mathias,
    Do you know whether SBUX increased the price of the cup to the consumer in order to manage their gross profit and operating margin?
    If so by which percentage?
    Sep 18, 2012. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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