montyman

A Breakdown or a Bear Trap? Will There Be a Rally on Wednesday?

Let me put my money where my mouth is as I write this on Tuesday. Since TraderMark is expecting an upside or downside event to happen on Wednesday or thereabouts, I believe that it will be a significant downside event.

My reasoning is thus: stimulus is petering out, and the markets need another shot soon. A downside event will prompt more stimulus. And then we're off to the races again. We'll know by the end of the week ;)

Is the Dow Starting to Stall?

El-Erian is a bond-man. He's talking his book.

This Market's Rising Tide Isn't Lifting All Boats

Yeah, but it's "options expiry week" so any plans will have a wrench thrown into them. BTW, didn't it used to be "options expiry day" if you know what I mean?


On Jun 13 04:48 PM ReppinFreedom wrote:

> We closed "one" point above the 200 day EMA on Friday on the S&P.
> We have a pretty good chance of breaking out to the upside for early
> mid next week in my opinion.
>
> (I am short (Long SDS), ha...)

Jim Welsh on the Economy: Past the Point of No Return

WTF is this poetry or something?


On May 06 03:42 PM Gem Hudson wrote:

> The money that does not pay off the debt buy none of their gold and
> the Chinese keep on loaning out the loans to keep the dollar value
> on the foreign dollar index exchange rate up or President Hu can
> uncouples the dollar as the world reserve currency and buys all the
> gold he wants in his own oriental reserve currency.
>
> The day the Chinese can back their wane on their gold stander. The
> day the Chinese will no longer buy out the debt and die hard, losers.

Jim Welsh on the Economy: Past the Point of No Return

I do find it a strange coincidence that the Taliban have suddenly and out-of-the-blue scored advances in Pakistan, just at the same time that markets look set up for some big downside pain. Hmmmmm?


On May 06 12:44 PM carey_jim wrote:

> Well-reasoned, excellent presentation.
>
> Other aspects of our American malaise might be even more important,
> such as our seeming need to fight wars of expansion.
>
> America was founded with a violent revolution, perpetuated with a
> civil war and expanded with imperialistic wars against Spain and
> Mexico.
>
> We rose to world economic dominance after victories in World War
> I and II and then defeated the Soviet Union, the only rival left
> on the world stage, in the cold war that lasted for several generations.
>
>
> One of Mohammad's favorite sayings was "Happiness is found under
> the shadow of swords" so maybe it's more than simple chance that
> America finds itself engaged in a life and death struggle with Islam.
>
>

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Yes, and what did they get instead?


On May 03 02:27 PM WAKEUP wrote:

> Big Jake still can't believe the U.S.A.'s voters REJECTED any more
> years of Bush-like rule.

Potential High/Low Targets for the Dow

Give it a rest already. Nothing to back-up your statement. I've been hearing comments like this for weeks now.


On Apr 28 09:13 AM TheFounder wrote:

> The party is over. We are heading down to retest.

In the Eye of the Banking Hurricane

Cetin is at his strongest when he mentions cultural sentiment in the U.S. (and the West by extension). My previous posts have pointed out that those who think that China will become an economic leader (such as Peter Schiff) miss this crucial point.

John Hussman: Wishful Thinking

Why is everyone bashing Cetin? He has been right so far. That's the only criterion I use for judging somebody!

Bleeding Indicators: Not Out of the Woods Yet

Cretin must be getting rich - you bears sure as heck aren't.

After the Rally, Now What?

And when will this next downleg happen? 15 years from now? So far Cetin H. seems to have nailed it better than anyone else.


On Apr 21 06:53 PM WAKEUP wrote:

> Nope. This rally will soon be forgotten. These things can be, and
> in this case was, engineered. It's a sucker ploy, plain and simple;
> don't bite.

Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold

Yes Rhett but WHEN??? 2 weeks? 2 months? 2 years?


On Nov 05 09:47 AM Rhett wrote:

> Nobody but nobody can come close to projecting the price of anything
> in 2012. But for now, gold is about to jump. You heard it here first.

Market Tales Get Taller

Based on historical patterns, I would say that the Chinese will end up being duped by the Americans. I have no financial training, but it seems to me that the past few decades have been nothing more but a form of neo-colonialism. The Asians do all the work and ship goodies to Western consumers in exchange for paper that can be made worthless at the stroke of a pen.

The Americans will keep playing this game until it collapses, and then the Americans will simply renege on their debt. The Asian economies will be wiped out. As for the Americans, who would also be in economic trouble after such a move, all they have to do is start a program of rebuilding factories, infrastructure, etc. and not only would there be jobs for every American, but Americans would regain all the physical plant they need to continue economic dominance (remember that in the 1950's Americans were not only the biggest consumers but they were AT THE SAME TIME also the biggest producers). They will come out of all this smelling like roses! If there is competition for natural resources because of this then the Americans can call on their powerful military to ensure supply.

People like Peter Schiff say that the Asians will rebel against the West and become consumers themselves, but I question whether the Asian world can ever be "Western-style consumers". There are cultural issues that suggest that only the West can be the West.

In other words: the EM's will have to keep playing along with whatever game the U.S. conjures up.

1929 All Over Again?

Yes, the political and cultural tendency in America is clearly towards fascism and not towards communism...

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Well Manistee, world currencies aren't doing so great either. The Euro is in trouble.... The real question is why gold isn't exploding to the upside.