montyman

China's Greatest Trade Ever

Based on historical patterns, I would say that the Chinese will end up being duped by the Americans. I have no financial training, but it seems to me that the past few decades have been nothing more but a form of neo-colonialism. The Asians do all the work and ship goodies to Western consumers in exchange for paper that can be made worthless at the stroke of a pen.

The Americans will keep playing this game until it collapses, and then the Americans will simply renege on their debt. The Asian economies will be wiped out. As for the Americans, who would also be in economic trouble after such a move, all they have to do is start a program of rebuilding factories, infrastructure, etc. and not only would there be jobs for every American, but Americans would regain all the physical plant they need to continue economic dominance (remember that in the 1950's Americans were not only the biggest consumers but they were AT THE SAME TIME also the biggest producers). They will come out of all this smelling like roses! If there is competition for natural resources because of this then the Americans can call on their powerful military to ensure supply.

People like Peter Schiff say that the Asians will rebel against the West and become consumers themselves, but I question whether the Asian world can ever be "Western-style consumers". There are cultural issues that suggest that only the West can be the West.