montyman

Long Dollar, Short Oil, Hold Gold?

If you think this is a counter-trend trade, for how long do you expect to hold DRR? BTW, was that a typo when you said " I still think it will cost two Euros to buy a buck sometime in the foreseeable future" (or did you mean two bucks to buy a Euro). Thanks.


On Jul 05 11:43 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> You nailed it. The stage is now set for the dollar. With the US 20
> months into a recession, it’s just a matter of time before the Fed
> pull us back from zero interest rates. With the ECB late to the funeral,
> European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet, last week reaffirmed
> his commitment to keep their benchmark rate at 1% to restore the
> economy. There’s your trade. The next move in the euro/dollar spread
> will be in favor of the greenback, as the US will be the first out
> of recession. On top of that, you can pile a fading US stock market
> and a back off in commodity prices, which are also dollar positive.
> Thus, you can expect the euro to trade down to the low $1.30s. Mind
> you, this is still a counter trend trade, which I generally try to
> avoid. I still think it will cost two Euros to buy a buck sometime
> in the foreseeable future. For those hardy few willing to scoop up
> some pennies in front of a steam roller, look at the 200% short euro
> ETF (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), which has backed off 34%
> from $63 to $42 since November.

Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold

Yes Rhett but WHEN??? 2 weeks? 2 months? 2 years?


On Nov 05 09:47 AM Rhett wrote:

> Nobody but nobody can come close to projecting the price of anything
> in 2012. But for now, gold is about to jump. You heard it here first.

Gold and Silver Sparkle During Rough Week for Markets

And even if it is a false start, that just means the real ascent will be that much bigger!!

'Gold as Money' Means a Potentially Massive Rise in Valuation

Yes the fundamentals agree with this article. The only thing that frustrates me is that this article mentions five years out. Other analysts give a similar viewpoint but different timeframes. And so on and so on. Not knowing the timing makes it very difficult to profit even if you know that something is definitely going up!