foobah

Despite Economic Headwinds, Gold Will Outperform

Since the outlier possibility of confiscation of gold assets exists, I wonder why GTU and CEF are not recommended instead of GLD.

The Start of a Run for Gold

I'm writing this to clarify my own thinking. Inflation of discretionary items is yesterday's news, but it still has a few months to run. When the drying up of credit takes hold the prices of things -- read housing, electronics, cars -- will drop in the US. The demand for oil and base metals from the developing world will diminish a bit easing the prices, but not enough to cause the prices to collapse. The price of agricultural commodities will continue to increase as may the prices of materials and equipment needed for agriculture. While all this is going on what will the dollar be doing? If it continues to fall relative to important currencies (Swiss franc, Yuan, Yen) gold priced in dollars will go up. If the bottom should fall out of the dollar -- heaven forbid -- gold priced in dollars will go up. Whether gold mining stocks increase in price when all this is going on will depend as much on the level of the DJIA as it does on the price of gold.