andyn

Steering Clear of Stryker; Larger Medical Device Cos Are Better Positioned

Agree...SYK is heavily dependent on ortho products as its cash cow and that will slow down massively in the next 2 years.
They are trying to diversify into other sectors like endoscopy, hospital comm systems but that doesnt bring in the kind of margins to keep the profit going at the levels they wanted i.e. earnings growth of 20%.
One way for them to increase profits might be to layoff workers and that might occur in 2009. The stock might languish at these levels for the next 2 years before demand picks up or management takes some aggressive action.

Satyam Fraud and the Advantage of the Self-Investor

Wait a minute... this is totally in hindsight by chartists to fit the news to the chart.

Before the "fraud" was revealed, the 1st gap down was talked about my chartists as an "opportunity" since the gap needed to be filled as the reason for the fall was reversed. That's one of the reasons the stock climbed from $5 to $9.5 so almost a double there.

Now everyone is rushing to say that one should have gotten out at $9.
Even if you were nimble and watching the market like a hawk, it was impossible to get out as the gap down was so huge and there was no trading for 2 days after the news hit.
So for the innocent investor, my point is that you cannot predict all the events and if you are afraid, either buy puts with the stocks or just dont be in stocks.

Mortgage Rates Fall to Record Low, Housing Affordability Surges to Record High

median-priced existing single-family house is "$181,000".
WHAT A JOKE... come to the Bay Area... its still way up there in the 400 and 500's to get a single family home.
And yes, I know the argument would be that the median income is also higher.
But its not double the median salary unlike the houses.

In other words, house prices have still a long way to go down.
Remember Japan had a property crash of almost 80%. We have merely touched 23% from the highs... so buyers, be patient for the ride below.

How Immigration Can Help Fix the Economy

The US should seriously think about its "LEGAL" immigration, rather than focusing on illegals.
Most people who have advanced degrees are here on legal basis, but since the backlog is so long in the US, they are either moving back to their home countries or going to Canada / Australia / UK.
The reason for that is those countries have a points system wherein people with advanced degrees / work experience get priority over others.
Hence they rather than the US are siphoning off the creamy layer.
The US needs to compete with them by creating a similar points system immediately which will also help the US economy like the author says.

Satyam Shakeout - Barron's

No doubt the company founders and maybe a few insiders are responsible.
But blame also lies squarely on the auditor PriceWaterhouse.
How can they miss a $1B cash hole? That too, for several years?

As an investor, you trust that the books are properly audited and that the numbers are right. Even analysts - who are supposed to be the experts in sniffing out issues with balance sheets - missed this huge issue.
If that's the case, maybe the entire accounting system needs to be thought about.

Satyam's Moment of Truth Is at Hand

India's Enron... so what lessons can one take from that.
1. It cant be just the chairman doing this... there are many persons with their hands in this mess / fraud.
2. Enron caused the demise of their auditors Arther Anderson, similarly this may cause a big blow to PWC, Satyam's auditor (were they sleeping all these years?)
3. How about the banks? Lots of banks had to pay huge fines due to their complicity with Enron. There are many banks who supposedly had Satyam's "5500 crore" rupees...wonder who would be hit the most?
4. Board of directors.... the less said of them, the better.
All in all, this might bring about a lot of skeletons from the closet. The true losers are the shareholders as well as employees.

Doesn't mean that all companies are bad though... there might opportunities to pick up INFY, WIT when they are sold off with this.

India Faces a Long Bear Market - Barron's

India and the BRIC countries were indeed in a stock market bubble.
And that bubble has been deflated.

But looking ahead, recognize India is different from other emerging markets in that its a intensely domestic focused economy and still a largely protected one.
Which means that what the shrewd investor needs to see is what is going on internally in India and whether the growth of 5-7% can be sustained.

That seems to be likely since inflation is coming down which means the govt can finally cut interest rates and spur growth. This is doubly beneficial for the ruling Congress party as the elections loom since inflation under 5% bodes well for them in retaining their rule which is extremely bullish for stocks.

India should maintain their 5-7% growth and that is key when compared to the rest of the world (apart from China) which will barely grow. Relatively speaking, investing in India through IBN, HDB, SLT or just a index fund like EPI / PIN would be good.

Pengrowth Energy, Gold Miners ETF: Value in Commodities

PWE also seems to be good, as they have also locked in the high oil rates for 09 and 2010.
Moreover,they have consolidated by buying other properties around their acerage.

Their dividend has been safe so far... of course, if oil keeps dropping, all bets are off. But I think oil will settle around $55 this year.

So PWE here at around $10 with a dividend yield of 20+% is a great investment.

Are Home Prices Still Too High?

Agree with MauiJeff's comments.
Baby boomers actually will now start getting out of the houses that they have and trade down as that's the only real asset they have to keep them going in their golden years.
That means LOTS of second-hand home supply in the market going forward.
Stock prices have crashed to almost 2001 levels.
I dont see why house prices are still at 2005 levels.
So yes, there is a lot more to go... remember Japan's case of 70% decline.
Maybe the US is not as bad, but I can definitely down 50% from peaks.
So I agree, there is no need to rush into get a house on "bargain".

ICICI Bank: Bellwether Emerging Market Short

I will gladly buy IBN here at $18.
Inflation is plummeting and with that interest rate margins are increasing.
IBN is still in a market that will grow atleast 5% if not more.
also in India most loans need substantial down payments unlike the US.

for a long term investor, its a great entry point to ride the Induan growth,

India Unraveling: Stay Short Emerging Markets

India is actually better than China and Russia since its such a domestic oriented economy, unlike the others.

Yes, sectors which depend on exports will suffer along with the rest due to the global slowdown.

But I think companies such as the banks (HDB, IBN) and construction firms will benefit hugely due to the lowered inflation and resultant interest rates.

Good time to buy into the Indian market now and ride the other side of the hill.

After TSX Drops 35% in 2008, Canada Hopes for a Better New Year

Canada's fortunes are tied in with commodities.
If oil starts going back up to even say $60 and stays relatively stable there, the tar sands projects will still be profitable (although less so).

Other commodities have just fallen off a cliff and are way oversold due to the credit freeze. As that thaws, the TSX will rise alongwith it.

Good time to just buy the market and sit back for the next 6-9 months.

Indian Banks Still Interesting

Rates will / are coming down rapidly in India since inflation has reached 6% from double digits and is predicted to go down further.
This is good for the Indian economy since its still mostly a domestic one (exports as % of GDP is low in sharp contrast to the others like China, Russia).

Also, there is a lot of development going on in infrastructure which should bode well to bridge over the recessionary tendencies the world over.
The stock market unfortunately was in the hands of foreign institutions and hence suffered along with the rest of the world. But the fundamentals of the Indian companies have not changed much.

IBN, HDB are good vehicles to ride the India story from here.
IBN in particular has been unduely punished with rumours and should return back to the mid-20's from here.

Is it Time to Buy Dry Bulk Shippers?

DRYS looks appetizing here in single digits, from its peak of $100+ say 6 mths back, but remember it has tripled from its lows of $3 or so.
The issue is whether all of these firms will "survive" the slowdown, which looks to be well into 2011.
So be very careful and only buy debt free companies which have good contracts locked in and not the day-rate companies.
Rather than dry-bulk shippers, a better bet would be mining/infrastructure plays which should recover from their low commodities. Like BHP, FCX and SLT.

The Uptick Rule: Mr. Cox, Is It Really That Devilish?

Shouldn't this rule change have REDUCED volatility? Atleast that's why it was removed to make the markets more "free" and hence more true.

I mean, if its easier for people to either buy or sell freely, the market should settle at the "proper true" value.

I guess theory and practice differ as we see, but u cant blame the lack of uptick rules for the selloff.

There were fundamental reasons for this bridge to collapse... huge leverage built on shaky house values. plain and simple.