andyn's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/204798/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/115395-steering-clear-of-stryker-larger-medical-device-cos-are-better-positioned?source=feed#comment-360775 360775 They are trying to diversify into other sectors like endoscopy, hospital comm systems but that doesnt bring in the kind of margins to keep the profit going at the levels they wanted i.e. earnings growth of 20%.
One way for them to increase profits might be to layoff workers and that might occur in 2009. The stock might languish at these levels for the next 2 years before demand picks up or management takes some aggressive action. ]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 09:52:48 -0500 They are trying to diversify into other sectors like endoscopy, hospital comm systems but that doesnt bring in the kind of margins to keep the profit going at the levels they wanted i.e. earnings growth of 20%.
One way for them to increase profits might be to layoff workers and that might occur in 2009. The stock might languish at these levels for the next 2 years before demand picks up or management takes some aggressive action. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115307-satyam-fraud-and-the-advantage-of-the-self-investor?source=feed#comment-359658 359658
Before the "fraud" was revealed, the 1st gap down was talked about my chartists as an "opportunity" since the gap needed to be filled as the reason for the fall was reversed. That's one of the reasons the stock climbed from $5 to $9.5 so almost a double there.

Now everyone is rushing to say that one should have gotten out at $9.
Even if you were nimble and watching the market like a hawk, it was impossible to get out as the gap down was so huge and there was no trading for 2 days after the news hit.
So for the innocent investor, my point is that you cannot predict all the events and if you are afraid, either buy puts with the stocks or just dont be in stocks. ]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 09:06:52 -0500
Before the "fraud" was revealed, the 1st gap down was talked about my chartists as an "opportunity" since the gap needed to be filled as the reason for the fall was reversed. That's one of the reasons the stock climbed from $5 to $9.5 so almost a double there.

Now everyone is rushing to say that one should have gotten out at $9.
Even if you were nimble and watching the market like a hawk, it was impossible to get out as the gap down was so huge and there was no trading for 2 days after the news hit.
So for the innocent investor, my point is that you cannot predict all the events and if you are afraid, either buy puts with the stocks or just dont be in stocks. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115043-mortgage-rates-fall-to-record-low-housing-affordability-surges-to-record-high?source=feed#comment-357521 357521 WHAT A JOKE... come to the Bay Area... its still way up there in the 400 and 500's to get a single family home.
And yes, I know the argument would be that the median income is also higher.
But its not double the median salary unlike the houses.

In other words, house prices have still a long way to go down.
Remember Japan had a property crash of almost 80%. We have merely touched 23% from the highs... so buyers, be patient for the ride below.]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 10:02:47 -0500 WHAT A JOKE... come to the Bay Area... its still way up there in the 400 and 500's to get a single family home.
And yes, I know the argument would be that the median income is also higher.
But its not double the median salary unlike the houses.

In other words, house prices have still a long way to go down.
Remember Japan had a property crash of almost 80%. We have merely touched 23% from the highs... so buyers, be patient for the ride below.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114217-how-immigration-can-help-fix-the-economy?source=feed#comment-353233 353233 Most people who have advanced degrees are here on legal basis, but since the backlog is so long in the US, they are either moving back to their home countries or going to Canada / Australia / UK.
The reason for that is those countries have a points system wherein people with advanced degrees / work experience get priority over others.
Hence they rather than the US are siphoning off the creamy layer.
The US needs to compete with them by creating a similar points system immediately which will also help the US economy like the author says.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 10:09:31 -0500 Most people who have advanced degrees are here on legal basis, but since the backlog is so long in the US, they are either moving back to their home countries or going to Canada / Australia / UK.
The reason for that is those countries have a points system wherein people with advanced degrees / work experience get priority over others.
Hence they rather than the US are siphoning off the creamy layer.
The US needs to compete with them by creating a similar points system immediately which will also help the US economy like the author says.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114128-satyam-shakeout-barron-s?source=feed#comment-352279 352279 But blame also lies squarely on the auditor PriceWaterhouse.
How can they miss a $1B cash hole? That too, for several years?

As an investor, you trust that the books are properly audited and that the numbers are right. Even analysts - who are supposed to be the experts in sniffing out issues with balance sheets - missed this huge issue.
If that's the case, maybe the entire accounting system needs to be thought about.]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 09:54:37 -0500 But blame also lies squarely on the auditor PriceWaterhouse.
How can they miss a $1B cash hole? That too, for several years?

As an investor, you trust that the books are properly audited and that the numbers are right. Even analysts - who are supposed to be the experts in sniffing out issues with balance sheets - missed this huge issue.
If that's the case, maybe the entire accounting system needs to be thought about.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113463-satyam-s-moment-of-truth-is-at-hand?source=feed#comment-348479 348479 1. It cant be just the chairman doing this... there are many persons with their hands in this mess / fraud.
2. Enron caused the demise of their auditors Arther Anderson, similarly this may cause a big blow to PWC, Satyam's auditor (were they sleeping all these years?)
3. How about the banks? Lots of banks had to pay huge fines due to their complicity with Enron. There are many banks who supposedly had Satyam's "5500 crore" rupees...wonder who would be hit the most?
4. Board of directors.... the less said of them, the better.
All in all, this might bring about a lot of skeletons from the closet. The true losers are the shareholders as well as employees.

Doesn't mean that all companies are bad though... there might opportunities to pick up INFY, WIT when they are sold off with this.]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:59:15 -0500 1. It cant be just the chairman doing this... there are many persons with their hands in this mess / fraud.
2. Enron caused the demise of their auditors Arther Anderson, similarly this may cause a big blow to PWC, Satyam's auditor (were they sleeping all these years?)
3. How about the banks? Lots of banks had to pay huge fines due to their complicity with Enron. There are many banks who supposedly had Satyam's "5500 crore" rupees...wonder who would be hit the most?
4. Board of directors.... the less said of them, the better.
All in all, this might bring about a lot of skeletons from the closet. The true losers are the shareholders as well as employees.

Doesn't mean that all companies are bad though... there might opportunities to pick up INFY, WIT when they are sold off with this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113016-india-faces-a-long-bear-market-barron-s?source=feed#comment-345268 345268 And that bubble has been deflated.

But looking ahead, recognize India is different from other emerging markets in that its a intensely domestic focused economy and still a largely protected one.
Which means that what the shrewd investor needs to see is what is going on internally in India and whether the growth of 5-7% can be sustained.

That seems to be likely since inflation is coming down which means the govt can finally cut interest rates and spur growth. This is doubly beneficial for the ruling Congress party as the elections loom since inflation under 5% bodes well for them in retaining their rule which is extremely bullish for stocks.

India should maintain their 5-7% growth and that is key when compared to the rest of the world (apart from China) which will barely grow. Relatively speaking, investing in India through IBN, HDB, SLT or just a index fund like EPI / PIN would be good.]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 09:57:26 -0500 And that bubble has been deflated.

But looking ahead, recognize India is different from other emerging markets in that its a intensely domestic focused economy and still a largely protected one.
Which means that what the shrewd investor needs to see is what is going on internally in India and whether the growth of 5-7% can be sustained.

That seems to be likely since inflation is coming down which means the govt can finally cut interest rates and spur growth. This is doubly beneficial for the ruling Congress party as the elections loom since inflation under 5% bodes well for them in retaining their rule which is extremely bullish for stocks.

India should maintain their 5-7% growth and that is key when compared to the rest of the world (apart from China) which will barely grow. Relatively speaking, investing in India through IBN, HDB, SLT or just a index fund like EPI / PIN would be good.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112914-pengrowth-energy-gold-miners-etf-value-in-commodities?source=feed#comment-344052 344052 Moreover,they have consolidated by buying other properties around their acerage.

Their dividend has been safe so far... of course, if oil keeps dropping, all bets are off. But I think oil will settle around $55 this year.

So PWE here at around $10 with a dividend yield of 20+% is a great investment.]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 08:42:08 -0500 Moreover,they have consolidated by buying other properties around their acerage.

Their dividend has been safe so far... of course, if oil keeps dropping, all bets are off. But I think oil will settle around $55 this year.

So PWE here at around $10 with a dividend yield of 20+% is a great investment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112936-are-home-prices-still-too-high?source=feed#comment-344050 344050 Baby boomers actually will now start getting out of the houses that they have and trade down as that's the only real asset they have to keep them going in their golden years.
That means LOTS of second-hand home supply in the market going forward.
Stock prices have crashed to almost 2001 levels.
I dont see why house prices are still at 2005 levels.
So yes, there is a lot more to go... remember Japan's case of 70% decline.
Maybe the US is not as bad, but I can definitely down 50% from peaks.
So I agree, there is no need to rush into get a house on "bargain".]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 08:38:24 -0500 Baby boomers actually will now start getting out of the houses that they have and trade down as that's the only real asset they have to keep them going in their golden years.
That means LOTS of second-hand home supply in the market going forward.
Stock prices have crashed to almost 2001 levels.
I dont see why house prices are still at 2005 levels.
So yes, there is a lot more to go... remember Japan's case of 70% decline.
Maybe the US is not as bad, but I can definitely down 50% from peaks.
So I agree, there is no need to rush into get a house on "bargain".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111406-icici-bank-bellwether-emerging-market-short?source=feed#comment-344043 344043 Inflation is plummeting and with that interest rate margins are increasing.
IBN is still in a market that will grow atleast 5% if not more.
also in India most loans need substantial down payments unlike the US.

for a long term investor, its a great entry point to ride the Induan growth,]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 08:29:53 -0500 Inflation is plummeting and with that interest rate margins are increasing.
IBN is still in a market that will grow atleast 5% if not more.
also in India most loans need substantial down payments unlike the US.

for a long term investor, its a great entry point to ride the Induan growth,]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112863-india-unraveling-stay-short-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-343209 343209
Yes, sectors which depend on exports will suffer along with the rest due to the global slowdown.

But I think companies such as the banks (HDB, IBN) and construction firms will benefit hugely due to the lowered inflation and resultant interest rates.

Good time to buy into the Indian market now and ride the other side of the hill.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 08:48:09 -0500
Yes, sectors which depend on exports will suffer along with the rest due to the global slowdown.

But I think companies such as the banks (HDB, IBN) and construction firms will benefit hugely due to the lowered inflation and resultant interest rates.

Good time to buy into the Indian market now and ride the other side of the hill.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112889-after-tsx-drops-35-in-2008-canada-hopes-for-a-better-new-year?source=feed#comment-343206 343206 If oil starts going back up to even say $60 and stays relatively stable there, the tar sands projects will still be profitable (although less so).

Other commodities have just fallen off a cliff and are way oversold due to the credit freeze. As that thaws, the TSX will rise alongwith it.

Good time to just buy the market and sit back for the next 6-9 months.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 08:44:18 -0500 If oil starts going back up to even say $60 and stays relatively stable there, the tar sands projects will still be profitable (although less so).

Other commodities have just fallen off a cliff and are way oversold due to the credit freeze. As that thaws, the TSX will rise alongwith it.

Good time to just buy the market and sit back for the next 6-9 months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112606-indian-banks-still-interesting?source=feed#comment-341382 341382 This is good for the Indian economy since its still mostly a domestic one (exports as % of GDP is low in sharp contrast to the others like China, Russia).

Also, there is a lot of development going on in infrastructure which should bode well to bridge over the recessionary tendencies the world over.
The stock market unfortunately was in the hands of foreign institutions and hence suffered along with the rest of the world. But the fundamentals of the Indian companies have not changed much.

IBN, HDB are good vehicles to ride the India story from here.
IBN in particular has been unduely punished with rumours and should return back to the mid-20's from here.]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 10:12:41 -0500 This is good for the Indian economy since its still mostly a domestic one (exports as % of GDP is low in sharp contrast to the others like China, Russia).

Also, there is a lot of development going on in infrastructure which should bode well to bridge over the recessionary tendencies the world over.
The stock market unfortunately was in the hands of foreign institutions and hence suffered along with the rest of the world. But the fundamentals of the Indian companies have not changed much.

IBN, HDB are good vehicles to ride the India story from here.
IBN in particular has been unduely punished with rumours and should return back to the mid-20's from here.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112428-is-it-time-to-buy-dry-bulk-shippers?source=feed#comment-340349 340349 The issue is whether all of these firms will "survive" the slowdown, which looks to be well into 2011.
So be very careful and only buy debt free companies which have good contracts locked in and not the day-rate companies.
Rather than dry-bulk shippers, a better bet would be mining/infrastructure plays which should recover from their low commodities. Like BHP, FCX and SLT.]]> Mon, 29 Dec 2008 09:16:21 -0500 The issue is whether all of these firms will "survive" the slowdown, which looks to be well into 2011.
So be very careful and only buy debt free companies which have good contracts locked in and not the day-rate companies.
Rather than dry-bulk shippers, a better bet would be mining/infrastructure plays which should recover from their low commodities. Like BHP, FCX and SLT.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107174-the-uptick-rule-mr-cox-is-it-really-that-devilish?source=feed#comment-311601 311601
I mean, if its easier for people to either buy or sell freely, the market should settle at the "proper true" value.

I guess theory and practice differ as we see, but u cant blame the lack of uptick rules for the selloff.

There were fundamental reasons for this bridge to collapse... huge leverage built on shaky house values. plain and simple.]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:13:09 -0500
I mean, if its easier for people to either buy or sell freely, the market should settle at the "proper true" value.

I guess theory and practice differ as we see, but u cant blame the lack of uptick rules for the selloff.

There were fundamental reasons for this bridge to collapse... huge leverage built on shaky house values. plain and simple.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107078-is-the-real-estate-plunge-really-that-shocking?source=feed#comment-311593 311593 Even though, foreclosures are occurring all around them.

I think home prices need to go down almost to 1999 levels or about 60% from the peak (double of the current median price drop %).

Sellers, better get out NOW while you get the higher values
Buyers, rent till the home values come down 60%]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:03:32 -0500 Even though, foreclosures are occurring all around them.

I think home prices need to go down almost to 1999 levels or about 60% from the peak (double of the current median price drop %).

Sellers, better get out NOW while you get the higher values
Buyers, rent till the home values come down 60%]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106704-my-reconsideration-why-share-buybacks-are-pointless?source=feed#comment-309709 309709 It indicates a lack of opportunities / ideas that the company can use the money for.
Buybacks give a false bottom to stocks and doesnt allow the markets to be do their actual thing.
I think better would be to do a special one-time dividend and give the money directly to the shareholders. (I was recipient of a HUGE dividend from MSFT some years back).
I am thinking of getting back into MSFT but am worried they may now do that stupid YHOO deal.]]> Wed, 19 Nov 2008 08:56:26 -0500 It indicates a lack of opportunities / ideas that the company can use the money for.
Buybacks give a false bottom to stocks and doesnt allow the markets to be do their actual thing.
I think better would be to do a special one-time dividend and give the money directly to the shareholders. (I was recipient of a HUGE dividend from MSFT some years back).
I am thinking of getting back into MSFT but am worried they may now do that stupid YHOO deal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106517-penn-west-energy-q3-earnings-review?source=feed#comment-308754 308754 oil is not going down forever... should settle around $50 for a while.]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 08:56:27 -0500 oil is not going down forever... should settle around $50 for a while.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105763-updated-fda-decision-date-calendar?source=feed#comment-305677 305677 Is there a FDA website which lists the updates to the dates as and when it happens?]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 21:06:21 -0500 Is there a FDA website which lists the updates to the dates as and when it happens?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105788-taking-advantage-of-google-s-plummeting-lows?source=feed#comment-305007 305007
$250 might be a long way off but to think that GOOG is below $300 is already crazy. P/E contraction is happening at a scary pace and there are no signs that the economy is going to recover anytime soon.

If you want to put in cash into this market, just buy a high-yielding one so that atleast you get something in return while you wait for the recovery in stocks.]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 09:38:48 -0500
$250 might be a long way off but to think that GOOG is below $300 is already crazy. P/E contraction is happening at a scary pace and there are no signs that the economy is going to recover anytime soon.

If you want to put in cash into this market, just buy a high-yielding one so that atleast you get something in return while you wait for the recovery in stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105513-insider-buying-at-corning-stock-shouldn-t-go-much-lower?source=feed#comment-303948 303948
I think people are going to nest more and that means more home entertainment like LCD tvs, video games etc.

Also, remember that the analog TVs are going off air in 2009 which should also help the replacement cycle of TVs.

All in all, bullish for GLW... buy here and get a 30% return in 3 months.]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 09:37:08 -0500
I think people are going to nest more and that means more home entertainment like LCD tvs, video games etc.

Also, remember that the analog TVs are going off air in 2009 which should also help the replacement cycle of TVs.

All in all, bullish for GLW... buy here and get a 30% return in 3 months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105284-tempted-to-buy-google?source=feed#comment-302878 302878 A risk of $10 but a upside of atleast $100 in say 6 months.

Good trade especially since their competitors, YHOO and MSFT, might be mired in a bear hug by then.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:32:42 -0500 A risk of $10 but a upside of atleast $100 in say 6 months.

Good trade especially since their competitors, YHOO and MSFT, might be mired in a bear hug by then.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105272-is-goldman-sachs-heading-to-20?source=feed#comment-302875 302875 In fact, risk diversification was one of the reasons to go public in the first place.

GS still has a marquee name and can attract equity investment from across the world. Yes, there might be dilution of existing shareholders but still the risk will be spread amongst them.

Their next earnings release should inform us of their status.
I will buy GS if its relatively stable.
]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:30:53 -0500 In fact, risk diversification was one of the reasons to go public in the first place.

GS still has a marquee name and can attract equity investment from across the world. Yes, there might be dilution of existing shareholders but still the risk will be spread amongst them.

Their next earnings release should inform us of their status.
I will buy GS if its relatively stable.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105131-is-india-s-economy-about-to-blast-off?source=feed#comment-302874 302874 What people need to understand is that India is still a "controlled" economy as the author has pointed out.
Moreover, there are many economic activities that are NOT captured by official figures and I think the rate of growth is being understated due to that. (for example, the slums of Dharavi is estimated to have a $1B economic output which is largely unregulated).
My point is that India is more resilient than the numbers indicate and over the long run (say 3-10 years) it should out-perform others.
Good time to buy into PIN, EPI, IBN, HDB at these low levels.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:26:37 -0500 What people need to understand is that India is still a "controlled" economy as the author has pointed out.
Moreover, there are many economic activities that are NOT captured by official figures and I think the rate of growth is being understated due to that. (for example, the slums of Dharavi is estimated to have a $1B economic output which is largely unregulated).
My point is that India is more resilient than the numbers indicate and over the long run (say 3-10 years) it should out-perform others.
Good time to buy into PIN, EPI, IBN, HDB at these low levels.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105010-giving-yahoo-stock-one-last-chance-with-a-bull-call-spread?source=feed#comment-301817 301817 This company is going down the drain FAST.

Better to buy GOOG below $350 which will no doubt benefit, whether microsoft comes back or not.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:51:59 -0500 This company is going down the drain FAST.

Better to buy GOOG below $350 which will no doubt benefit, whether microsoft comes back or not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104798-yahoo-analyst-focus-turns-to-microsoft-search-deal?source=feed#comment-300673 300673
Anecdotally, I can tell of many friends who are fleeing this sinking ship.

Also, GOOG is benefiting both from engineers and clients shifting to it.

GOOG is the winner in this and should be bought at this cheap level under $350.]]> Sat, 08 Nov 2008 09:23:09 -0500
Anecdotally, I can tell of many friends who are fleeing this sinking ship.

Also, GOOG is benefiting both from engineers and clients shifting to it.

GOOG is the winner in this and should be bought at this cheap level under $350.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104772-playing-the-baby-boomer-trade-jpm-s-aging-population-index?source=feed#comment-300670 300670
There are few other companies left out above which should benefit:-
Reconstructive surgery - Stryker (SYK), Zimmer (ZMH), SNH
Geriatric drugs - Gilead (GILD)

Buy these stocks at these low levels today and sit back for the next 20 years.

]]> Sat, 08 Nov 2008 09:19:53 -0500
There are few other companies left out above which should benefit:-
Reconstructive surgery - Stryker (SYK), Zimmer (ZMH), SNH
Geriatric drugs - Gilead (GILD)

Buy these stocks at these low levels today and sit back for the next 20 years.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104792-free-market-healthcare-falling-victim-to-recession?source=feed#comment-300667 300667
USA actually spends 14% of its GDP on healthcare, but doesnt reap the benefits.

About 1/3rd is due to indirect administrative costs and not direct costs such as drugs (which everyone loves to hate).

Its projected that in 10-15 years, healthcare will eat up around 25% of GDP, primarily due to growing baby boomer medical care.

The "free market" solution will be unaffordable to more than 90M americans (including 50M uninsured).

So the writing is clear on the wall.
Even if everyone hates a "socialist" healthcare system like in Canada, US will be forced to go down that path, more for economic reasons than for ideological reasons.
The earlier the system is reformed, the better it would be.]]> Sat, 08 Nov 2008 09:15:28 -0500
USA actually spends 14% of its GDP on healthcare, but doesnt reap the benefits.

About 1/3rd is due to indirect administrative costs and not direct costs such as drugs (which everyone loves to hate).

Its projected that in 10-15 years, healthcare will eat up around 25% of GDP, primarily due to growing baby boomer medical care.

The "free market" solution will be unaffordable to more than 90M americans (including 50M uninsured).

So the writing is clear on the wall.
Even if everyone hates a "socialist" healthcare system like in Canada, US will be forced to go down that path, more for economic reasons than for ideological reasons.
The earlier the system is reformed, the better it would be.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104493-salesforce-likely-to-be-below-15-by-year-s-end?source=feed#comment-299995 299995
But in the coming months, growth rate should slow both because of law of larger numbers and a recession.

The only question is by when it would be cut in half to $15....
I think it would take atleast next 2 earnings release to do that. ]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:59:50 -0500
But in the coming months, growth rate should slow both because of law of larger numbers and a recession.

The only question is by when it would be cut in half to $15....
I think it would take atleast next 2 earnings release to do that. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104647-sterlite-industries-taking-advantage-of-the-dip?source=feed#comment-299989 299989 I thought that was off the table when SLT paid that $50M breakup.

This stock is a steal down here, but then again Mr. market is not wrong generally to leave dollars on the road.

Anyway, I will get in once the mediation over Asarco is over.]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 08:54:47 -0500 I thought that was off the table when SLT paid that $50M breakup.

This stock is a steal down here, but then again Mr. market is not wrong generally to leave dollars on the road.

Anyway, I will get in once the mediation over Asarco is over.]]>