andyn

Is the Real Estate Plunge Really That Shocking?

What is surprising is that home sellers are still thinking they are going to get their high watermark prices!!!
Even though, foreclosures are occurring all around them.

I think home prices need to go down almost to 1999 levels or about 60% from the peak (double of the current median price drop %).

Sellers, better get out NOW while you get the higher values
Buyers, rent till the home values come down 60%

Fibonacci Unhinged

this is stupid technical analysis... if things were predictable where it would bounce up or down (60%, 30% etc), it looses its very predictability.
Sure, it will turn somewhere and I can come up with my own retracement levels of 25, 50, 75%....I will get it right someday!!!
The key thing to understand is this is a fundamental change in financial markets and if the govt doesnt interfere, the bottom would be found faster and we will stabilize. Step back and take a deep breath.

Risk Management in Trending Markets

Good analysis in the article. With all the liquidity that the Fed has injected, inflation is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
Energy and financials would be meandering for the next 6-9 months trying to find a direction.
Long inflation plays like GLD, DBA and short dollar is the way to go.