shootpar2001

Preferreds Up 100%, On Verge of Breakout

100%!!!!
Is that all?????
They are going higher! With replacement strategies in place and growing, with conversions to common. Look for another 50% from here. Check out the Blackrock Preferred (PSY), not as concentrated in the financials.

Disclosure: (PSY)

The Junk (Debt) Hits the Fan

High yield bonds and bond funds have an even higher default rate factored in. Look at the prices and thus corresponding yields. As the
Fed bids up your Treasuries; slowly take profit and slowly move up the risk scale. This is exactly what the Fed wants and will reward those who do. It will be a slow process; and sometimes volitile (British downgrade), but with a slow and steady recovery will come a nice return for those who get-paid-to -wait.

Disclosurers: (PTY), (ACG), (PSY), (FT).

According to OECD, U.S. GDP Fell by -1.6% in Q1

No real story here; those who follow the 'data' closely already know this. "watch" the hype when we rise 1%; which will then be trumpted as a 4% annual increase, thus the world is alright again. The 'pols' will be all over this and the market will run.
Those of us using this site correctly, will sell to the lemmings and have a great weekend (probably this fall sometime).
I say thank you very much to gov't manipulation of data.

No Risk, No Volatility, No Economy

Switzerland has the greatest gun ratio than anyone!!!
Yes, greed can and has gotten out of hand. Happened before, will happen again; but without creative destruction you would not be blogging!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



On May 14 06:34 PM theobannion wrote:

> So, I take it that for you, Ronald Reagan was right - greed really
> IS good.
>
> Greed on the one hand leads to desperation on the other. Desperation
> leads to revolution.
>
> I can think of better ways to spend my retirement than ducking bullets.
> The US has the greatest number of firearms per capita in the world.
> Unfortunately, too many people don't realize how bad things can get.
>
>
> Best,
> SOB.

No Risk, No Volatility, No Economy

Greed!!! Never left the room, but has been badly beaten to the back of the room. The article rightly implies that without risk taking; a sustained upswing is a long way off.
I am an entreprenuer and risk taker, until the 'new' rules of the game are written and I believe that they will not be changed on me; I am not spending (investing) much at all.
I am not alone in this position, I have many upper middle-class clients and friends who are acting the same way. We as a group pay the majority of the taxes and do a majority of the spending in this country!!!
The GDP and tax collection numbers tell the story.



On May 14 12:40 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> With the S&P 35% from its lows it looks like greed may be making
> a comeback.
>
> ----------------------...
> The only way to get an economy moving out of a stall of this magnitude
> is animal spirits. Greed has to flicker in the cowardly hearts of
> investors and get them out of their holes. But that is not going
> to happen, for greed is a bad thing.

April's Negative Revenue Surprise

You think April was bad; wait until the yearly totals get added up (correctly). I am predicting a $2.5 Trillion deficit!!!
Yes, you read that right.
Many investors will still have capital losses, even if we go another 20% higher. Corporate losses and mandated right-offs (market-to-market) will continue to cost the treasury funds.
Higher social costs (welfare, unemployment ins., etc.) are only a guess, but will continue sky-ward with the job cuts.
The gov't has not factored in about 500,000 auto related jobs that are going bye-bye.
I am sorry to be so negative; but not having an agenda, I may be able to see the forest through the spending.

Tax-Free Muni Bonds: Respect the Yield Curve

Seeking Alpha has had several informational articles on muni's as of late. With the ability to raise taxes (some states already have), besides cost cuts; the low default rate will probably continue.
Next, congress is talking about authorizing the Fed to implictly back
Muni's; saving the cost sent to the ratings agencies.
I would not fight the Fed.

Disclosurers: (MFM) (MVF) (ATAX).

Buy Ford Shares on the Stock Dilution

May I recommend looking at their preferreds.
F.S or KSK
As bad as it has been; Ford has made all the payments.
Look at the charts; these things also got crushed, get paid to wait.

Disclosurers: (KSK)



On May 15 07:17 AM lbator wrote:

> Ford will soar in the short run. While Chrysler and GM make their
> way through bankruptcy the government will pass some form of the
> cash for clunkers program. Although I totally disagree with the legislation
> some form of it will pass. When it does millions of Americans will
> have cash vouchers in hand looking for new automobiles. You could
> not dream up a more perfect scenario for Ford. I started buying Frod
> at a 1.28 and continued forward. By summer I see this stock back
> at its 52 week high. Then and only then will I consider taking my
> profits and heading for a more fundamentally sound company

ECRI: Recession Likely to End This Summer

This recession is not ending soon; and it should not!!!
This took years to build up; artifically proping up the economy with
low rates and stimuli, etc.
With societal debt at almost $70 Trillion; it will take years to work off
enough to where growth will be a driver again.
The sooner we bounce off the bottom (a v-shaped recovery) the sooner we will drop right back down. A slow gradual recovery would be best for all (except the politicians) concerned.
Paying off debt, acquiring capital to invest more wisely and timely and patience will do the most good.

Tsunami of Cash Just Waiting to Be Invested

Yes, the author was being sarcastic.
However, they may not believe in Sir Timothy, but they love his boss... the Messiah. These idealists will help drive the markets higher until reality shows up; when the prudent will take their profits.........saying Thank You....thank you very much.



On May 04 10:04 PM Missing_Link wrote:

> On May 04 04:31 PM Tom Armistead wrote:

Tsunami of Cash Just Waiting to Be Invested

They are idiots!!!
The past proves this, the general public are lousy investors (traders). Now we have the 'Obama-maniacs' who will drive this thing much higher than is deserved. I am not a genius! It happens; I am just smart enough to realize it.
The Jones' just do not want to be left behind.
"TRADE".....accordingly.



On May 04 08:12 PM prudentinvestor wrote:

> I don't get it. You are assuming that people with cash who thought
> the market was expensive at S&P 700, should suddenly now discover
> it is cheap and jump in at S&P 900 !? This implies that these
> mythical people who have cash are idiots, a rather dubious assumption.
>
>

Tsunami of Cash Just Waiting to Be Invested

Your comments about there being a buyer and seller for every trade is correct of course, but the assumption that the seller then goes on vacation is stupid. He/She usually rests and searches for the next investment. Just like inflation; if more investors show willingness to move to an asset from 'cash', the prices pais will rise.
The thought process that states that having 'sizable' cash available for buying assets is not flawed; (Thus, provides for an increase in prices) but needs to be tempered.



On May 04 03:39 PM wdhalgren wrote:

> Just to make sure I have your scenario straight, let me summarize
> what you said. People will take some of their money out of that tsunami
> of money market cash and "put it to work" in the market. For every
> dollar they "put to work" by buying a stock, the seller takes a dollar
> out of the market and "puts it on vacation", most likely into a money
> market fund. Voila, the tsunami has stayed exactly the same size,
> completely unaffected by the transaction.
>
> And just to be fair, the exact same thing happens whether the market
> is rising, falling, or flat. Money "on the sidelines" is not impacted
> by stock market transactions, because every buyer has a seller and
> every seller has a buyer. Money market funds are not used up, or
> accreted by the level of stock prices, because money cannot "flow
> into" the market. If we woke up with a cure for death tomorrow, and
> the Dow opened at 100,000 on the first trade, no money need have
> changed hands, or "flowed in from the sidelines".
>
> Your impregnable floor is a fantasy and "sideline cash" is a mythical
> construct of the wall street marketing machine. Now, go do your bottoms
> up homework and you might get lucky and pick a winner or two.

Want a Pension Over $100,000? Be a Government Worker in California

FRont-line workers deserve the money because they put their lives on the line!!! Not because of cost-of-living. The remaining are generally useless gov't beaucrats, sucking the system dry.



On May 04 03:44 PM Karen Consumer wrote:

> Ok TraderMark, I put my foot down and disagree with you on this.
> You got a cop working 20-30 years and he retires with a pension of
> $100k. Sounds like alot, unless he has to pay his own health insurance
> upon retirement (anywhere from $500 to $1,500). Guessing he has to
> still pay taxes on that pension (CA state income tax, federal income
> tax, any municipal tax, I'm gonna be stingy and say $15,000 a year).
> Suddenly that $100k a year living in an expensive state like CA doesn't
> seem so much.
>
> You don't want cops, fire fighters, or prison guards getting $100k
> a year pensions upon retirement, fine, pay them a higher wage up
> front instead of promises of a good retirement (assuming they live
> to retirement age and don't die in the line of duty), ok?
>
> As for the other guys (DA's, Judges, City Managers), we do agree
> there. They get it on the front end and the back end and usually
> off the top even when there are layoffs. They need a pension haircut.
> Funny though, polititians don't like to rock the boat against the
> people who could put their behinds behind bars.

What if Chrysler Holdouts Overhedged with CDS?

Even Idiots at AIG could have made this mistake.....
They could have sold CDS's on long term debt from 10 years ago.
Remember CDS's are not something magically new; because you have not heard about them before. They have been around longer than you think. This question is much more relevant to GM and the mortgage securities that the gov't is trying to get the banks to sell.
Why can't the gov't get the banks to sell their 'toxic' debt for 40 cents- on-the-dollar?
Because they bought insurance from AIG; which is now backed by the gov't. The IDIOT politicians are trying to negotiate with themselves and do not even realize it!!!!!!!!



On May 05 08:16 AM hoffman23 wrote:

> Who wrote CDS's on Chrysler? AIG? Even those idiots weren't that
> stupid. Anyone in the car business knows why they held out. They
> would have to admit to a loss instead of having "the good fight".
> they overplayed their cards. More morons in charge of someone else's
> money.

Chrysler vs. Debtholders: Who Will Win?

If that is all they invested.
Remember; somebody had to originally pay the entire dollar at first issuance. The pension funds (maybe yours) are long term holders
(mostly to maturity) and usually buy at issuance.



On May 01 07:35 PM ex GM emp wrote:

> "Debtholders which are fund managers were only doing their fiduciary
> duty, which is to maximize returns for their investors." Yeah, we
> sure wouldn't want them to get less than a dollar on the dollar for
> the quarter on the dollar they invested. Gimme a break.