lance sjogren

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy

sethmcs:

Hubbert predicted peak oil for the US, and his prediction, universally considered the rantings of a lunatic at the time, proved to be dead on accurate.

By using the same methodology, peak oil has been predicted on a global level, but of course the precise date is subject to some dispute, some say it occurred in 2005 while others contend it has yet to occur; extreme optimistst predict it will be 10-20 years before it occurs.

Real bell curves don't tend to be perfectly smooth mathematical functions so the actual date of peak oil could vary by a few years depending on glitches in the oil supply curve.

Anyone like you who does not believe in peak oil is today's version of a flat earther.

While Natural Gas Production Increases, Company Stock Prices May Not

As a NG investor, the ideal scenario is that enough new gas comes online to keep the price reasonable (avoiding boom/bust cycles, demagogic attacks from the politicians, etc), while the amount that gets into production is modest enough that the price stays stable (including a gradual rise for inflation).

Unfortunately, commodities prices don't tend to follow such ideal scenarios.

Natural Gas & Wind Power - The Pickens Plan

jack:

You are absolutely right, that is a flaw in Pickens' plan.

Wind power goes together best with natural gas power, because wind is unreliable and natural gas is the fuel used for "dispatchable" power for times when demand peaks above supply.

Wind and baseload plants like coal and nuclear don't "play together" nearly as well.


Personally, I think because of this we shouldn't tinker with the mix of electric power plants, in fact, it may make sense for new plants to be natural gas rather than coal.

However, we can rely heavily on natural gas power plants and not necessarily use up a whole lot of natural gas.

The key is to build LOTS of renewable plants as Pickens proposes. Then, MOST of the time we should be able to get power from those. Solar in the day, wind at night. We still need the natural gas plants to to "fill in the gaps", but the point is if we have a lot of renewable plants then the natural gas plants can be shut off a lot more of the time, and thus even though we still need those power plants, we can cut down on the amount of natural gas we are burning in them.

Natural Gas & Wind Power - The Pickens Plan

wirth:

The US has a pretty good natural gas supply situation in my view. Look at the large discoveries of unconventional natural gas in the various "shales" around the country by companies like Chesapeake and XTO. Beyond the proven reserves, there are staggering amounts of natural gas that they view as "possible", which in my opinion are likely to largely turn out to be real.

Yes it will run out as well, but we have more than we thought, thus allowing us a little more time to make the transition to renewables.

Right now the industry debate is whether we have a GLUT of domestic natural gas.


I believe peak oil is real, and it is now. I believe peak natural gas is not very far down the road. But I also believe that just because one recognizes the peak fossil fuel problem does not mean that one should always accept uncritically the very most pessimistic forecast for the timeline of the decline of the various fossil fuels.

Take James Kunstler for example. I love his writings, he is extremely witty and much of his dire forecasting is probably right on target. But clearly he always proposes the absolutely most dismal forecast on every detail of the death of the fossil fuel era.

Natural Gas & Wind Power - The Pickens Plan

Fitzman:

You are correct, Pickens' plan will only deal with our energy predicament for the next 10-20 years or so.

Making a complete switch to renewables will, in my view, take the entire 21st century, and will be 100 times as difficult as dealing with the first 10-20 years.

Pickens has identified the "low hanging fruit" in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables and proposed that we go forward with those measures that are to anyone who has some understanding of the energy situation the obvious measures to be taking at this time.

In the longer-term, we are going to have to deal with:

1). How to match the energy demand profile as a function of time with the production profile of intermittent renewable sources.

2). How to get the energy from renewable sources, which are sited where the resource is availalbe, to the places where the energy is needed.

3). How to generate enough biofuels to meet the energy needs of applications that can't run on electricity. (e.g. aircraft)


1 and 2 combined could be termed "how to match renewable energy sources with demand in time and space".

I believe that will be the biggest technical challenge ever undertaken by mankind. It will make the development of renewable energy SOURCES such as wind and solar look like childs play in comparison.