bozak

Why Amazon Is Overvalued

The same old faulty arguments about why Amazon is overvalued that have been batted around for about 2 years now. You are correct that internet growth is saturated in the US, but you have ignored other avenues of growth for Amazon. International business, the Kindle, and cloud computing all have a lot of room for growth. Additionally, the domestic business is not just tied to "internet access" it is tied to consumer spending habits. Although these habits are trending down in aggregate, Amazon continues to get a bigger piece of the pie. This trend will likely continue for a long time. The bottom line is that Amazon has a legit chance of becoming the world's largest retailer in the next ten years through superior customer service and the best logistical controls on the planet. Then through in some high margin businesses like the Kindle, movie rentals, and computing services and the current market cap starts to look like a bargain.

Can High Options Volume Predict Future Stock Prices?

Also look at "The information in option volume for future stock prices" from The review of financial studies, June 2006

Can High Options Volume Predict Future Stock Prices?

Take a look at the journal article "Option volume and stock price: evidence on where informed traders trade" from April 1998 in The Journal of Finance.

This was a large scale study, the primary finding was: "Our main empirical result is that negative and positive option volumes contain information about future stock prices."

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

What is the symbol for Freedom Oil and Gas? MJXX appears to not work anymore.

Elan: Actionable Buy Call

I hope you guys actually sold at your stop loss levels. Down to $11 now in after hours.

Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials

Biotech bull, if all Bapineuzumab needs to do is "not kill anyone" to get approved for an unmet need, why didn't DNDN's drug get approved? They had a huge unmet need, a great safety profile and better efficacy than Bapineuzumab (primary goal met), yet they didn't get approved.

Elan: Actionable Buy Call

Biotechs always try to say that statistical significance is not that important and that not meeting the primary goal of the trial is not that bad. However, they fail to mention that drugs almost never get approved without statistical significance and without positive results from the trial's primary endpoint.

Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials

Eben, thanks for the info about the connection (or lack of) and the links.

Wyeth and Elan Take Hits on Bad Trials

Eben, nice call. Do you happen to know what the realationship is between Tysabri and Bapineuzumab? Seems like more than a coincidence that they both cause problems in the brain.

Elan: Actionable Buy Call

Are you kidding? This call is an obvious attempt by someone who was already long to prop back up the stock price. The safety profile is terrible and the Phase II did not meet the primary goal. Take a look at previous small biotechs with similar phase II results (primary goal not met, no statistical significance, minority says trial is "promising") BIOM (now ONTY), INGN, VNDA, need I go on? This stock is headed below $10.

Buying Dow for a Better Deal than Warren Buffett Got

What about the rising cost of natural gas? Isn't Dow the biggest user of natural gas in the world? Natural gas prices represent a significant headwind for DOW. If you want a better deal than Buffet buy KMX 40% lower than Buffet's latest buy.