PDL27

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

My partner and I were considering a paired trade of Long UNG and Short oil figuring the two should move directionally together and UNG is way below historical norms relative to oil. But then we just looked at UNG's chart and couldn't justify trying to catch the falling knife.

Good luck, doubleguns.


On Apr 14 06:21 AM doubleguns wrote:

> As always thank-you Dave for the fine charts and I like the story
> about the sugar. It made me feel better and worse since I have a
> lot of UNG. I was wondering what I would do if UNG went to 2 cents!!!!
> Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. That would be a nightmare!!!
>
> Seems perverse waiting on hurricane season.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Stoney,

You wrote to David: "Your point on TLT is that due to the promise of US buying bonds have reversed up when they should be going down?- that's how I'm taking the Chinese comment- you should flush these charts out a bit with better commentary."

I think you need to bring a little bit of your own knowledge and study to this blog: the Fed announced unprecedented purchase of Treasuries last week... the ramifications of this are rather evident: TLT and IEF have been rallying... and the Chinese have raised concerns about the potential loss of value over time in Treasuries... since they've been the largest purchasers for years, don't you think that is a concern? And now they are calling for an international currency standard to replace the dollar... Don't you think that should be a heads-up for potential investors in TLT and IEF among others?

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Very small comment, Dave... It was Willie Sutton, not John Dillinger, who made that remark about "that's where the money is". But I agree with your sentiment. Thanks for your chart analysis.

Friday Outlook: Danger on All Sides

Was that "shout-out" to "Crammer" intentionally misspelled? LOL!

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Interesting comment on Myron Scholes freezing the assets of his hedge fund... being a Nobel Laurette (sp?), I can now see why Paul Krugman was recently given this honor.

Thanks for the informative charts and commentary.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David, thanks for your commentary as usual. I hope you won't take the bait and try to respond to bosun.j -- there are elements to that screed that beg for a response but it hardly seems worth it since bosun.j seems completely immersed in ideas and opinions whose validity is not only questionable but has been proven wrong throughout history.

Anyway, for one who still believes that "Wall Street" still serves an important function in our capitalistic society and that there is nothing wrong in trying to generate decent returns from our investments and seed capital which was generated by our own labor over many years, some of which were producing widgets at a reasonable profit and not merely for the benefit of society, we appreciate your analysis of the ETFs in your universe. Unfortunately, they paint a rather dismal picture at the moment and I'm afraid that's a pretty good assessment of both the current and near-term economic situation for our beloved country and the world as a whole. Maybe Mr/Ms bosun.j should consider what your trivial graphs "tell" about the challenges facing this country and its evolving leadership.

Thanks for your work.

The Next Bubble

Jason, you seem to bemoan the exponential growth of hedge funds and the resulting "momentum investing" that they pursue -- and then you suggest the turn is coming and people can benefit from buying LEAPS. I also note that you are LONG the UUP and SHORT USO -- those are classic momentum plays for the moment. Am I missing something?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

"Putin is lootin'" ... that's a classic! May I borrow that? And you're right: they really are Soviets in their mindset and objectives... and in their souls.

Nice job, David, as always. Other than oil and a few healthcare sectors, I don't see anything close to being positive. Good time to stay on the sidelines. JMHO.

Why To Take the Rally With a Grain of Salt

Vinny, can you provide a link to that chart? Thanks.

The WSJ on Bernsetin's Gray: Inaccurate and Unfair

I agree with the two earlier comments -- I think Gigot's criticism of Fannie and Freddie is right on the mark. I don't recall the specific references to Bernstein's Jonathan Gray but I don't think they were the central point of Gigot's piece. Fannie and Freddie have had a free ride for the last couple of decades and now, the "chickens have come home to roost" -- unfortunately, at the taxpayers' expense.

Keep up the good work, Paul!