David Martin's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/205283/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/106343-the-humility-of-realism?source=feed#comment-308779 308779 I would be interested in knowing what you think of the role of the yen carry trade was in this - that wall of money looking for a return not available in it's home market would have been pretty difficult to stop, I think.]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:15:13 -0500 I would be interested in knowing what you think of the role of the yen carry trade was in this - that wall of money looking for a return not available in it's home market would have been pretty difficult to stop, I think.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106475-would-we-even-recognize-a-depression-if-we-had-one?source=feed#comment-308760 308760 It will be far worse.]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:00:06 -0500 It will be far worse.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106490-general-motors-bailout-consider-other-alternatives?source=feed#comment-308756 308756 Actually, the big 3 are zombies, jsut like the banks, but that will not stop TPTB from pumping in good money after bad.]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 08:57:05 -0500 Actually, the big 3 are zombies, jsut like the banks, but that will not stop TPTB from pumping in good money after bad.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106550-a-gm-collapse-would-signal-hope-for-robin-hood?source=feed#comment-308749 308749 Massive overcapacity has to be reduced, and the US big 3 are by far the weakest and most poorly run.
Not that that will stop the Government spending taxpayers money in a vain attempt to preserve the living dead.]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 08:52:23 -0500 Massive overcapacity has to be reduced, and the US big 3 are by far the weakest and most poorly run.
Not that that will stop the Government spending taxpayers money in a vain attempt to preserve the living dead.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105730-tarp-takes-a-wrong-turn?source=feed#comment-304914 304914 Fellow grifters with Paulson, to a man.]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 08:36:14 -0500 Fellow grifters with Paulson, to a man.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105782-paulson-pulls-back-the-tarp?source=feed#comment-304892 304892 All the board was sacked and they will be lucky to escape prosecution, let alone collect bonuses.
Paulson is a grifter, and sadly Obama has surrounded himself with other grifters who created the mess in the first place and profited hugely by it.
I don't think these scam artists have got their head around the fact that if they avoid the rule of law, when the ponzi scheme crashes Judge Lynch is going to look for them and theirs.]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 08:26:26 -0500 All the board was sacked and they will be lucky to escape prosecution, let alone collect bonuses.
Paulson is a grifter, and sadly Obama has surrounded himself with other grifters who created the mess in the first place and profited hugely by it.
I don't think these scam artists have got their head around the fact that if they avoid the rule of law, when the ponzi scheme crashes Judge Lynch is going to look for them and theirs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105576-u-s-can-blame-wall-street-who-should-everyone-else-blame?source=feed#comment-303897 303897 Wed, 12 Nov 2008 09:03:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105075-couldn-t-the-new-aig-bailout-have-waited-until-january?source=feed#comment-302870 302870 The alternative is that this is an on-going scam perpetrated to benefit insiders and drain money from the taxpayer and companies outside of the favoured circle.
That seems to me to be the correct explanation.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:23:20 -0500 The alternative is that this is an on-going scam perpetrated to benefit insiders and drain money from the taxpayer and companies outside of the favoured circle.
That seems to me to be the correct explanation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105301-white-hot-mad-over-aig?source=feed#comment-302862 302862 We were told by the Senators and Congressmen that opinion subsequently changed, but were given no evidence for this.
This scam is being carried out in broad daylight, with the connivance of the whole establishment.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:19:37 -0500 We were told by the Senators and Congressmen that opinion subsequently changed, but were given no evidence for this.
This scam is being carried out in broad daylight, with the connivance of the whole establishment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105268-in-search-of-a-less-insane-u-s-auto-industry?source=feed#comment-302843 302843 The same goes for the banks, and the Fed.
They are disfunctional and irreformable.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:09:57 -0500 The same goes for the banks, and the Fed.
They are disfunctional and irreformable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105063-u-s-is-playing-financial-dominoes?source=feed#comment-302840 302840 I am a bit more doubtful though about the inevitability of inflation, as the deflationary forces are so powerful with the frantic deleveraging occurring.
My best guess would be ongoing deflation, no matter how hard central banks push on the string, followed perhaps by hyperinflation as all the money that has been printed hits in a tidal wave.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:06:52 -0500 I am a bit more doubtful though about the inevitability of inflation, as the deflationary forces are so powerful with the frantic deleveraging occurring.
My best guess would be ongoing deflation, no matter how hard central banks push on the string, followed perhaps by hyperinflation as all the money that has been printed hits in a tidal wave.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105299-great-expectations-for-obama-but-not-the-markets?source=feed#comment-302798 302798 What is your take on the impact of the Chinese plans to spend another $300 billion a year themselves, leaving them with little budget surplus and presumably buying less US Treasury bonds?
I(t soundds bad for US funding and the dollar.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 08:36:16 -0500 What is your take on the impact of the Chinese plans to spend another $300 billion a year themselves, leaving them with little budget surplus and presumably buying less US Treasury bonds?
I(t soundds bad for US funding and the dollar.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104991-uh-oh-there-goes-the-bid-in-treasuries?source=feed#comment-301796 301796 The article is rather gnomic, if indeed a couple of sentences can be called an article.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:34:57 -0500 The article is rather gnomic, if indeed a couple of sentences can be called an article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105013-opportunity-to-sell-into-china-s-illusory-stimulus-package?source=feed#comment-301789 301789 An interesting question, I would have thought, is that if these funds are disbursed, taking China from a position of budget surplus to slight deficit, that would mean that around $300 billion a year would no longer be available to buy US Treasury bonds.
Any expert comment on the consequences of this?]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:30:27 -0500 An interesting question, I would have thought, is that if these funds are disbursed, taking China from a position of budget surplus to slight deficit, that would mean that around $300 billion a year would no longer be available to buy US Treasury bonds.
Any expert comment on the consequences of this?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104949-the-long-case-for-autos?source=feed#comment-301778 301778 The banks have agreed to alter the headline rate, but the first thing they would order on returning to their offices is to neutralise it.
For the small proportion of loans that they have to make on those terms they will seek to alter the conditions, for instance with much higher deposits and stricter credit checks.
Most mortgages do not come under those terms anyway.
It just means a bit more window-dressing for the banks, the real cost to the customer of their loans will continue to rise, whilst the Banks take money from the Treasury at favourable rates and re-capitalise from the money they have lost in sub-prime, derivatives and developing countries.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:25:16 -0500 The banks have agreed to alter the headline rate, but the first thing they would order on returning to their offices is to neutralise it.
For the small proportion of loans that they have to make on those terms they will seek to alter the conditions, for instance with much higher deposits and stricter credit checks.
Most mortgages do not come under those terms anyway.
It just means a bit more window-dressing for the banks, the real cost to the customer of their loans will continue to rise, whilst the Banks take money from the Treasury at favourable rates and re-capitalise from the money they have lost in sub-prime, derivatives and developing countries.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105002-lessons-from-the-great-depression-and-one-of-the-biggest-tax-hikes-in-u-s-history?source=feed#comment-301761 301761 Since they are busy stealing $70 billion of the funds that are given in the form of bonuses, in recognition of their fine services in bankrupting the economy, a rate of, say, 95% of bonuses paid, retrospective for 5 years, would seem more just than burdening the taxpayers who did not create this mess.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:15:56 -0500 Since they are busy stealing $70 billion of the funds that are given in the form of bonuses, in recognition of their fine services in bankrupting the economy, a rate of, say, 95% of bonuses paid, retrospective for 5 years, would seem more just than burdening the taxpayers who did not create this mess.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104862-detroit-is-hemorrhaging?source=feed#comment-301145 301145 Umpteen bail-outs later, the British car industry consists of a few small specialised companies and foreign transplants.
Sometimes the rot goes too deep to save.]]> Sun, 09 Nov 2008 11:05:06 -0500 Umpteen bail-outs later, the British car industry consists of a few small specialised companies and foreign transplants.
Sometimes the rot goes too deep to save.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104886-the-chickens-of-irresponsibility-come-home-to-roost-under-obama-s-reign?source=feed#comment-301138 301138 When he has people like Roubini who actually predicted this coming then perhaps we can make some attempt at a rational assessment of the situation.
At the moment banks are not even being made to be transparent on their holdings, and all is quiet whilst Paulson gets on with his job of the unsupervised and extra-legal looting of the economy to the benefit of his cronies and at the cost of the taxpayer.]]> Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:54:12 -0500 When he has people like Roubini who actually predicted this coming then perhaps we can make some attempt at a rational assessment of the situation.
At the moment banks are not even being made to be transparent on their holdings, and all is quiet whilst Paulson gets on with his job of the unsupervised and extra-legal looting of the economy to the benefit of his cronies and at the cost of the taxpayer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104947-the-reagan-counterrevolution?source=feed#comment-301131 301131 I suggest you emigrate, but leave behind the money you have looted from the system in your association with the gangster capitalism that has been the current practise for many years.
BTW, I speak as someone who has been a conservative all my life.
Capitalism though bears only a passing resemblance to the pillaging which has occurred, with vast sums taken by fraud whilst real wages stagnated.]]> Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:47:07 -0500 I suggest you emigrate, but leave behind the money you have looted from the system in your association with the gangster capitalism that has been the current practise for many years.
BTW, I speak as someone who has been a conservative all my life.
Capitalism though bears only a passing resemblance to the pillaging which has occurred, with vast sums taken by fraud whilst real wages stagnated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104698-what-obama-s-victory-means-for-the-defense-sector?source=feed#comment-301123 301123 How come they bombed Palestinians in the heart of their own country for many years before they were hit back?
Don't be naive.]]> Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:37:04 -0500 How come they bombed Palestinians in the heart of their own country for many years before they were hit back?
Don't be naive.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104954-as-russia-tests-the-waters-oil-and-gas-showdown-looms?source=feed#comment-301117 301117 It will rebound, and spectacularly fast as demand in China and the oil producers will not sink to anything like the extent in the West.
This rules out recovery and makes years of recession inevitable, in fact until oil and gas is substituted.
The IEA is ridiculously optimistic in it's projections for the finding and developing of new oil sources as old fields deplete.
They are projecting totally different trends to the last 30 years.
Of course, they are an agent of Governments, and hence have to 'look on the bright side of life'
The depletion rates for oil fields of around 9% are accurate though.
It boils down to sinking supplies by 2012, getting worse all the time as demand in China and elsewhere rises.
The way the two will be reconciled is by permanent depression and falling living standards in the west.
Couple that with the unwinding of the debt position and of the vastly inflated house prices and you are looking at the next 20 years at least being hard times.]]> Sun, 09 Nov 2008 10:31:27 -0500 It will rebound, and spectacularly fast as demand in China and the oil producers will not sink to anything like the extent in the West.
This rules out recovery and makes years of recession inevitable, in fact until oil and gas is substituted.
The IEA is ridiculously optimistic in it's projections for the finding and developing of new oil sources as old fields deplete.
They are projecting totally different trends to the last 30 years.
Of course, they are an agent of Governments, and hence have to 'look on the bright side of life'
The depletion rates for oil fields of around 9% are accurate though.
It boils down to sinking supplies by 2012, getting worse all the time as demand in China and elsewhere rises.
The way the two will be reconciled is by permanent depression and falling living standards in the west.
Couple that with the unwinding of the debt position and of the vastly inflated house prices and you are looking at the next 20 years at least being hard times.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104698-what-obama-s-victory-means-for-the-defense-sector?source=feed#comment-300620 300620 Fortunately Cheney is leaving office.
The US will be unable to afford it's present wars to seize oil and dominate the Middle East through Israel.]]> Sat, 08 Nov 2008 05:53:11 -0500 Fortunately Cheney is leaving office.
The US will be unable to afford it's present wars to seize oil and dominate the Middle East through Israel.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103814-the-economy-s-worst-is-still-ahead-of-us?source=feed#comment-297951 297951 The Alt-A mortgages have to be so far underwater that they are submarines, as most mortgages which do not carry over interest are well below sale value.
From the figures you give, on a $600k house with interest you might owe $750k for an asset with $450k of value.
That takes down the mortgagee, the bank and the derivative market, together with the bail out plan scam.]]> Tue, 04 Nov 2008 09:31:17 -0500 The Alt-A mortgages have to be so far underwater that they are submarines, as most mortgages which do not carry over interest are well below sale value.
From the figures you give, on a $600k house with interest you might owe $750k for an asset with $450k of value.
That takes down the mortgagee, the bank and the derivative market, together with the bail out plan scam.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102691-15-more-thoughts-on-the-current-crisis?source=feed#comment-294156 294156 Here is a further not-so-cheery thought:
Check out the Financial Times for details of the IEA's report on oil prospects. Add in the fact that present low prices mean that the investment in things like the oil sands just are not happening, and in any case the costs will be vastly more than present low oil prices from easy to exploit fields, and it is clear that oil availability will be greatly restricted.
This means that any sort of recovery will almost immediately bang up against an oil price going through the roof, bringing the recovery to a grinding halt.
A real, sustainable recovery will need both present levels of debt to be unwound, together with the jailing of the criminals who have lied and lied again about asset valuations to keep their ponzi schemes going, or they will continue to pillage the system instead of undertaking any real investment in productive assets, and also the replacement of present energy systems.
We are looking at a 20 years, at minimum. ]]> Thu, 30 Oct 2008 09:26:55 -0400 Here is a further not-so-cheery thought:
Check out the Financial Times for details of the IEA's report on oil prospects. Add in the fact that present low prices mean that the investment in things like the oil sands just are not happening, and in any case the costs will be vastly more than present low oil prices from easy to exploit fields, and it is clear that oil availability will be greatly restricted.
This means that any sort of recovery will almost immediately bang up against an oil price going through the roof, bringing the recovery to a grinding halt.
A real, sustainable recovery will need both present levels of debt to be unwound, together with the jailing of the criminals who have lied and lied again about asset valuations to keep their ponzi schemes going, or they will continue to pillage the system instead of undertaking any real investment in productive assets, and also the replacement of present energy systems.
We are looking at a 20 years, at minimum. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102913-have-the-markets-put-the-cart-before-the-horse?source=feed#comment-294138 294138 The only inaccuracy is in an expectation of a recovery.
Check out the Financial Times for details of the IEA's report on oil prospects. Add in the fact that present low prices mean that the investment in things like the oil sands just are not happening, and in any case the costs will be vastly more than present low oil prices from easy to exploit fields, and it is clear that oil availability will be greatly restricted.
This means that any sort of recovery will almost immediately bang up against an oil price going through the roof, bringing the recovery to a grinding halt.
A real, sustainable recovery will need both present levels of debt to be unwound, together with the jailing of the criminals who have lied and lied again about asset valuations to keep their ponzi schemes going, or they will continue to pillage the system instead of undertaking any real investment in productive assets, and also the replacement of present energy systems.
We are looking at a 20 years, at minimum.]]> Thu, 30 Oct 2008 09:11:01 -0400 The only inaccuracy is in an expectation of a recovery.
Check out the Financial Times for details of the IEA's report on oil prospects. Add in the fact that present low prices mean that the investment in things like the oil sands just are not happening, and in any case the costs will be vastly more than present low oil prices from easy to exploit fields, and it is clear that oil availability will be greatly restricted.
This means that any sort of recovery will almost immediately bang up against an oil price going through the roof, bringing the recovery to a grinding halt.
A real, sustainable recovery will need both present levels of debt to be unwound, together with the jailing of the criminals who have lied and lied again about asset valuations to keep their ponzi schemes going, or they will continue to pillage the system instead of undertaking any real investment in productive assets, and also the replacement of present energy systems.
We are looking at a 20 years, at minimum.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102925-depression-s-all-talk-so-far?source=feed#comment-294125 294125 You may not have any sense of what is occurring, but others certainly do, and your 'buy now' advice is ludicrous.
The liquidity being dished out may result in hyper-inflation in the long run, but at the moment it is somewhat staving off the inevitable collapse, but it will not succeed because it cannot, as it is trying to cure a problem caused by too much debt by taking on still more.]]> Thu, 30 Oct 2008 08:55:06 -0400 You may not have any sense of what is occurring, but others certainly do, and your 'buy now' advice is ludicrous.
The liquidity being dished out may result in hyper-inflation in the long run, but at the moment it is somewhat staving off the inevitable collapse, but it will not succeed because it cannot, as it is trying to cure a problem caused by too much debt by taking on still more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102413-is-too-big-to-fail-also-too-big-to-save?source=feed#comment-293411 293411 Wed, 29 Oct 2008 10:33:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102569-will-volatility-be-embedded-in-the-system-for-a-generation?source=feed#comment-293405 293405 As the recession hits and people are thrown out of work, mortgage defaults will soar and house prices and commercial real estate prices crash.
This leaves the banks no collateral, and means another bail out, further depressing the credit worthiness of many Governments around the world.
As interest rates of Treasury bonds soar, the US and UK Governments in particular may have no option but to institute brutal cut backs.
The weight of money they have already created may still lead to hyperinflation in the nominal money supply, but the underlying deflation should be profound.
In some Western economies there may be little need to worry about coming out of recession and forcing up commodity prices, as the mechanism to come out of recession is difficult to see.
This is beside from the fact that many raw materials and in particular oil and gas are entering a stage of depletion where more energy is required to extract them, at a time of decreased ability to muster the funds to pay for this.
I'm not sure if the result will be continued deflation or hyperinflation, but either way we won't like it.]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 10:29:53 -0400 As the recession hits and people are thrown out of work, mortgage defaults will soar and house prices and commercial real estate prices crash.
This leaves the banks no collateral, and means another bail out, further depressing the credit worthiness of many Governments around the world.
As interest rates of Treasury bonds soar, the US and UK Governments in particular may have no option but to institute brutal cut backs.
The weight of money they have already created may still lead to hyperinflation in the nominal money supply, but the underlying deflation should be profound.
In some Western economies there may be little need to worry about coming out of recession and forcing up commodity prices, as the mechanism to come out of recession is difficult to see.
This is beside from the fact that many raw materials and in particular oil and gas are entering a stage of depletion where more energy is required to extract them, at a time of decreased ability to muster the funds to pay for this.
I'm not sure if the result will be continued deflation or hyperinflation, but either way we won't like it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102263-housing-is-doing-its-own-thang?source=feed#comment-292770 292770 Do try to make some sense, this is whistling in the dark not analysis.]]> Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:58:15 -0400 Do try to make some sense, this is whistling in the dark not analysis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102264-the-real-cause-current-account-deficit?source=feed#comment-292763 292763 The bonus structure biased towards short term performance did not lead to a total disregard of the long term health of their companies?
That it is right that bankers should still be collecting huge bonuses courtesy of the taxpayer after wrecking the economy?
These guys are grifters playing a shell game, and should be in prison, after confiscation of their passports and assets.
Instead of which, of course, they are charging huge sums to 'manage' the loot that Paulson has brought home to them , in a bail out which cannot and will not work, as the housing market has much further to fall.
Nevermind, it gives more time to complete the gutting of their companies and shareholders.
]]> Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:53:34 -0400 The bonus structure biased towards short term performance did not lead to a total disregard of the long term health of their companies?
That it is right that bankers should still be collecting huge bonuses courtesy of the taxpayer after wrecking the economy?
These guys are grifters playing a shell game, and should be in prison, after confiscation of their passports and assets.
Instead of which, of course, they are charging huge sums to 'manage' the loot that Paulson has brought home to them , in a bail out which cannot and will not work, as the housing market has much further to fall.
Nevermind, it gives more time to complete the gutting of their companies and shareholders.
]]>