David Martin

As Russia Tests the Waters, Oil and Gas Showdown Looms

There is a disconnect in your assumptions that a new great depression is unlikely but a rapid rebound in oil prices on any renewal of growth is likely.
It will rebound, and spectacularly fast as demand in China and the oil producers will not sink to anything like the extent in the West.
This rules out recovery and makes years of recession inevitable, in fact until oil and gas is substituted.
The IEA is ridiculously optimistic in it's projections for the finding and developing of new oil sources as old fields deplete.
They are projecting totally different trends to the last 30 years.
Of course, they are an agent of Governments, and hence have to 'look on the bright side of life'
The depletion rates for oil fields of around 9% are accurate though.
It boils down to sinking supplies by 2012, getting worse all the time as demand in China and elsewhere rises.
The way the two will be reconciled is by permanent depression and falling living standards in the west.
Couple that with the unwinding of the debt position and of the vastly inflated house prices and you are looking at the next 20 years at least being hard times.