David Martin

Toyota's View of the Future

Switchback rises and falls in oil prices also mean that it is much more difficult to finance investment in either other energy sources or getting out the more expensive oil that remains.
The worst thing that could happen to security of supply would be for oil prices to fall to $80 or lower.

Are Oily Characters Behind Crude's Price Move?

Obviously according to the articles analysis oil and gas supplies are infinite, and geology is unimportant.
We are not going to 'run out' of oil or gas, but new supplies are increasingly expensive and flow rates low - oil may cost around $80/barrel to extract now, as against $5/barrel for the early, large fields.
In addition to this, the sour oil which is left needs sweetening with substantial amounts of natural gas.
Increased prices won't lead to greatly largere amounts of oil any more than increased prices for buffalo hides led to increased supply after too many had been shot.

Global Net Oil Exports in Decline

Not all consumption is equal. In oil exporters petrol prices are usually kept very low, and much of the oil consumed simply goes to fuel SUV's, whilst China for instance must pay much more for oil to help build solar panels, for instance, and the energy cost of fertiliser goes through the roof leading to mas starvation.
Oil consumed by the exporters is just not used very efficiently to help the world economy to grow.
As for your other point that not sufficient account is taken of those producers that are growing or are likely to grow in output, this is indeed allowed for in the models.
It is just that there are far more areas and countries where production is dropping, and although the occasional large field may be discovered most are much smaller than in the past, and more difficult to get oil from.
In reality, new discoveries have been far smaller than consumption for many years, and that shows no sign of changing.