David Martin

Opportunity to Sell Into China's Illusory Stimulus Package

The package is said to include social stimulus programs too, which could presumably be front-loaded as they are an easy way of disbursing money.
An interesting question, I would have thought, is that if these funds are disbursed, taking China from a position of budget surplus to slight deficit, that would mean that around $300 billion a year would no longer be available to buy US Treasury bonds.
Any expert comment on the consequences of this?

The Chickens of Irresponsibility Come Home to Roost Under Obama's Reign

The 'fantastically deep pool of talent' Obama has to draw on includes most of the people who created this mess, and who are deeply implicated in the Ponzi schemes involved.
When he has people like Roubini who actually predicted this coming then perhaps we can make some attempt at a rational assessment of the situation.
At the moment banks are not even being made to be transparent on their holdings, and all is quiet whilst Paulson gets on with his job of the unsupervised and extra-legal looting of the economy to the benefit of his cronies and at the cost of the taxpayer.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Just a prelude to a September or October crash.
The market is overvalued by 2/3rds.

Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel?

The article misses the most consistent sources of rising demand - the oil exporters, where prices are often far below world prices.
With supply broadly static for the last 3 years (extraction has exceeded new discoveries for around 30 years) and rising demand in the exporters that will mean less available for export regardless of China and India.
Exports from other major areas like Mexico and Venezuela is collapsing already, and ramping up in other areas is by no means taking its place.