David Martin

As Russia Tests the Waters, Oil and Gas Showdown Looms

There is a disconnect in your assumptions that a new great depression is unlikely but a rapid rebound in oil prices on any renewal of growth is likely.
It will rebound, and spectacularly fast as demand in China and the oil producers will not sink to anything like the extent in the West.
This rules out recovery and makes years of recession inevitable, in fact until oil and gas is substituted.
The IEA is ridiculously optimistic in it's projections for the finding and developing of new oil sources as old fields deplete.
They are projecting totally different trends to the last 30 years.
Of course, they are an agent of Governments, and hence have to 'look on the bright side of life'
The depletion rates for oil fields of around 9% are accurate though.
It boils down to sinking supplies by 2012, getting worse all the time as demand in China and elsewhere rises.
The way the two will be reconciled is by permanent depression and falling living standards in the west.
Couple that with the unwinding of the debt position and of the vastly inflated house prices and you are looking at the next 20 years at least being hard times.

Toyota's View of the Future

Switchback rises and falls in oil prices also mean that it is much more difficult to finance investment in either other energy sources or getting out the more expensive oil that remains.
The worst thing that could happen to security of supply would be for oil prices to fall to $80 or lower.

Will Crude Oil Break $100/Barrel?

The article misses the most consistent sources of rising demand - the oil exporters, where prices are often far below world prices.
With supply broadly static for the last 3 years (extraction has exceeded new discoveries for around 30 years) and rising demand in the exporters that will mean less available for export regardless of China and India.
Exports from other major areas like Mexico and Venezuela is collapsing already, and ramping up in other areas is by no means taking its place.

Just a Commodities Correction - Not the End of the Bull (Part 2)

Since oil production has remained broadly stable for the last 3 years and new discoveries have been far less than consumption since around the 70's, your thesis that oil will resume it's rise shortly should be correct.
It is so right, furthermore, that it will destroy the second part of your thesis, that falling prices will re-stimulate growth.
As growth takes off again rising oil prices will soon throttle it.

Are Oily Characters Behind Crude's Price Move?

Obviously according to the articles analysis oil and gas supplies are infinite, and geology is unimportant.
We are not going to 'run out' of oil or gas, but new supplies are increasingly expensive and flow rates low - oil may cost around $80/barrel to extract now, as against $5/barrel for the early, large fields.
In addition to this, the sour oil which is left needs sweetening with substantial amounts of natural gas.
Increased prices won't lead to greatly largere amounts of oil any more than increased prices for buffalo hides led to increased supply after too many had been shot.

Global Net Oil Exports in Decline

Not all consumption is equal. In oil exporters petrol prices are usually kept very low, and much of the oil consumed simply goes to fuel SUV's, whilst China for instance must pay much more for oil to help build solar panels, for instance, and the energy cost of fertiliser goes through the roof leading to mas starvation.
Oil consumed by the exporters is just not used very efficiently to help the world economy to grow.
As for your other point that not sufficient account is taken of those producers that are growing or are likely to grow in output, this is indeed allowed for in the models.
It is just that there are far more areas and countries where production is dropping, and although the occasional large field may be discovered most are much smaller than in the past, and more difficult to get oil from.
In reality, new discoveries have been far smaller than consumption for many years, and that shows no sign of changing.