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Nessuno

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  • 8 Reasons Why 3D Systems Is A Short Candidate [View article]
    ECapo....Automobiles, air flight, light bulbs, vessels for space travel have all been with us a long time, but, have they been good investments? The auto industry in North America had to be bailed out, in 2008, by taxpayers to survive. Their respective stock prices have recovered lately but they have not been a good investment in the long term? GM is facing significant head winds. Auto parts suppliers have done comparatively much better as an investment in this sector. As for air flight, the major carriers have gone through many Chapter 11 scenarios and consolidations. Their stock values have only recently outperformed. They will revert to their mean values. As for light bulbs, I don't really know but GE has faced many challenges in this sector. GE is now a multi faceted and diversified company, not reliant on light bulbs. The discussion about space vessels is irrelevant. Tax payers finance NASA, the EU Space Agency, and so on. An investor in a supplier to NASA may have made a bit of money. As for 3D printing, I did believe in the hype up until six months ago. I had skin in that game and more than double my investment. I no longer have a position because I think the hype is unwarranted imho. Good luck to all who have a position in the 3d printing industry.
    Apr 2 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why 3D Systems Is A Short Candidate [View article]
    JimJonmo...Extremely low volume production, extremely complex parts and early stage prototypes are suitable endeavourers for 3d printing, no question about it. Is this enough to justify the predictions that 3d printing will become a multi billion dollar insdustry by a certain point in time? From my perspective, the most suitable application is early stage prototypes, which I've always maintained to be the case. The conundrum as I see it, is to justify the predictions by analysts and pundits that 3d printing will become a multi billion dollar industry by the year 2018 or whenever, when 3d's primary purpose is to print prototypes and fulfill hobbyist's needs. When you factor in the low threshold to entry into the 3d industry, setting the stage for competitive forces to drive down the prices for printers and consumables, thereby eroding margins, you end up with a commoditized business model. From an investor's perspective, the above reality simply can not justify the hype and stock price valuations associated with the 3d printing industry as a whole. Let's keep in mind that 3d printing has been with us for thirty years or so. It has not disrupted traditional manufacturing yet and is unlikely to do so.
    Apr 2 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why 3D Systems Is A Short Candidate [View article]
    Spent two hours with a 3d printer today. It was a monumental waste of time imo. It was a demonstration of 3d printing capability. They had hundreds of printed figurines that only a five year old would be impressed with. The printer took ninety minutes to print a figurine measuring 3x3x7 in. high. The original figurine was scanned on a rotating scanner. It took about thirty minutes for the scan. I just can't see how 3d additive manufacturing can be a disruptive technology that will revolutionize manufacturing. The process is just too slow and expensive. The printer was a MakerBot model and cost $ 2,900. Each cartridge cost $ 60.00. Someone, anyone help me understand why this is disruptive technology.
    Apr 1 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Is A Great Short And Here's Why [View article]
    bernard K50

    If one is going to buy puts on DDD, one would buy them one or two strike prices in the money (ITM). The Delta value is to be .70 or higher....the higher the better. Open interest to be at least 1000. Lastly, buy more time than you think you will need. The more time you buy, the more expensive the put contracts will be, but the rewards will be greater PROVIDED the stock price drops below the strike prices you buy by the expiration date. Of course, the more the stock price drops below the strike price the greater your profit will be. From a risk management perspective, do not risk more than 1 to 1.5% of your trading account on such a trade.
    Feb 26 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Is A Great Short And Here's Why [View article]
    Wildeweasel,

    Perhaps you may want to enlighten me on "there is a lot more to it than that and a lot of things you can't do with CNC milling machines that you can do with 3D printing". Tell me what one can do with 3D printing aside from making novelty items and prototypes. Tell me where the exponential growth will come from to justify the valuations of the 3D companies. Believe me, I want to embrace the positive narrative being perpetuated by analysts and pundits. I just can't see it. Convince me otherwise.
    Feb 25 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Is A Great Short And Here's Why [View article]
    Well, HPQ is a better bet in the 3D printing space than DDD, in my estimation.
    Feb 25 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Is A Great Short And Here's Why [View article]
    hhess

    I don't think there is as much growth potential as the analysts, pundits, boiler room promoters and A. Reichental claim there is.

    Why is HPQ entering the market? I don't know why. I do know that they have enough financial resources to dip their toe in the water without getting hurt. If HPQ enters and stays in this space for an extended period of time, the reverberations will be felt throughout the industry. I don't see a moat filled with gators around the 3D printing castle. The machines are relatively simple to make. The fact that there is no moat will lead to excessive competition, margin and profitability erosion in short order.

    We all know that human emotions, primarily fear and greed, play a large roll in the equity markets. My view is that the valuations for the 3D space have been driven by greed in response to the excessive hype in the 3D printing space.


    DDD reports this week. Let's wait for the results and statement of future guidance. I hope Ponzi or the ghost of Ponzi in the form of Avi Reichental doesn't show up to give us the guidance.


    By the way, I have no position in any company in the 3D printing space. I used to have positions and got out with a two bagger. I basically got lucky. This was before I recognized the hype. However, I'm considering buying long term puts after the annoucement because I think the long term prospects are not bright.
    Feb 25 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems Is A Great Short And Here's Why [View article]
    Additive manufacturing is simply the three dimensional version of computer assisted design (CAD) two dimensional cutters. I worked with CAD cutters for years. Both 3d printers and 2d cutters are wonderful tools for making prototypes of objects you might want to produce using conventional subtractive manufacturing equipment. 3D printing will never replace subtractive manufacturing simply because the 3D printing process is much too slow and much too expensive for mass manufacturing purposes. And, the quality of the end product is suspect at best. 3D printed is also an ideal process for making worthless novelty trinkets like bracelets, earrings, phone cases etc. The stock analysts don't seem to comprehend the inherent limitations of the 3D printing process when they say the industry will grow by X amount by the year 2018 or whenever.

    The hype and outright misrepresentations propagated by Avi Reichental, CEO of 3D Systems, when he said 3D Systems "already made ninety different engine airplane parts for Boing" only serves to warn investors that 3D printing is a house of cards. This statement is simply not true. The 3D printing house of cards will collapse with the slightest breeze.

    Reichental does not rhyme with Madoff, but he sure walks and talks like a Madoff. Reichental doesn't rhyme with Pozzi either, but.........
    Feb 25 12:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Beginning Of The End Of The 3D Printing Bubble [View article]
    Is there any way to determine what the adoption rate is by end users? If sales are mostly to an ever increasing number of unwitting distributors without a congruent adoption rate by end users, we basically have an industry that is filling a finite pipeline. The pipeline can only increase by adding more unwitting distributors who may have been seduced by the hype associated with the 3D printing industry.

    I suspect that end user adoption may not be keeping up the distribution network that has been and is being created. I would love to hear from a distributor or two to find out how sales are progressing at their level. For example, Staples carries a line of consumer printers. How are sales of 3D printers at Staples advancing? For the professional lines of 3D printers, what is the adoption rate by end users?


    The adoption rate by end users at the consumer and professional level will tell us more conclusively the long term prognossis of the 3D printing industry, not sales to distributors.
    Feb 8 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Analyzing The Bear Thesis [View article]
    Does anybody know how many 3D printers and how much consumable products are sold to distributors and how many 3D printers and how much consumable products are bought by end users? I think the answer to these two questions is critical in understanding the true state of the 3D printing industry.

    If the number of distributors is increasing and are buying printers and consumables because they bought into the growth hype of the 3D printing industry and end users are not increasing their rate of 3D printer and consumables purchases, we may have an industry who's growth rate is fueled by the hype associated with this industry.

    Let's determine what the adoption rate is for 3D printers and consumables by end users. Clearly, if end user adoption is increasing in step with sales to distributors, the long term growth projections may have merit for the 3D printer industry. If the adoption rate by end users is not congruent with sales to distributors, we have an industry that is merely filling the pipeline in response to either real or perceived irrational exuberance that may exist in this industry.


    I suspect that end user adoption may not be keeping up with sales to distributors. This would explain the decreasing growth rate guidance. Afterall, the pipeline has a finite capacity unless the pipeline is increased with more unwitting distributors.
    Feb 8 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Beginning Of The End Of The 3D Printing Bubble [View article]
    Hello 3D printing aficionados. I'm back. You may recall my posts in late 2011 and early 2012, warning everyone that 3D printing was and is nothing more than a scam. The consumer versions could only "print" trinkets then, can only print trinkets now, and will only ever print trinkets in the future. The industrial versions are far too slow to ever replace subtractive manufacturing processes. All versions are too slow to be economically viable. This is the Achele's heel of 3D printing.....lack of speed. Throw in a bit of creative accounting and hype, which was masterfully executed primarily by DDD, the result is the mess we have today.

    I applaud Whitney Tilson today and applauded Whitney Tilson over a year ago when he was one of the few voices of reason. I'm now glad I took Whitney's and other's advice and got out with a healthy gain, while still missing out on a lot of the upside.

    If I were to hold up a convenience store and make off with $ 300.00 and get caught, I would spend time in jail and have a criminal record for the rest of my life. The 3D sand baggers, Wall St. analysts/boiler room promoters who have and are stealing millions are going to get off Scot free and laugh all the way to the tax haven bank located on an island somewhere. I love unfettered capitalism. Don't you?


    The people who perpetrated this scam should be in a cockroach infested jail. How about Guantanamo? Naw, probably no cockroaches there.
    Feb 6 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Salesforce.com Be Fudging Their Sales Numbers? [View article]
    Brooklyn....there is clearly a gap between Benioff's real and declared aims. Amazing and phenomenal are definitely exhausted idioms used extensively by Beinoff, the CRM cuttlefish. Thanks for your perspective. It's as if George Orwell knew Beinoff personally.
    Dec 31 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Salesforce.com Be Fudging Their Sales Numbers? [View article]
    So, CRM started out as amazing and became more amazing in the second round of venture funding and the business plan calls for "phenomenality" to be achieved in 2015. Looks like Benioff is well ahead of schedule. Since I'm a relatively small retail investor. I've placed an order for 5,000 at market price. May double my stake on Friday, Jan 3rd. I'm certain CRM will be one of my better holdings. It's all about being phenomenal.
    Dec 30 11:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Salesforce.com Be Fudging Their Sales Numbers? [View article]
    Convert....thanks for clarifying....makes perfect sense. Just one more thing to clear up.....what preceded amazing? Was it fantastic by any chance? Or was amazing the starting point? And yes, CRM has a heavy burden of being amazing and phenomenal concurrently. Didn't think it was possible to toggle between amazing and phenomenal. If anyone can, Benioff can.
    Dec 23 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Salesforce.com Be Fudging Their Sales Numbers? [View article]
    ConvertClassic. Your post confused me. I thought CRN was transitioning from phenomenal to amazing, not the other way around. Live and learn something new every day.
    Dec 18 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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