Stez's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/205610/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/178675-thursday-outlook-it-s-going-to-be-a-tricky-day?source=feed#comment-810670 810670
On the buy side we have to follow Buffett and deep value plays.

However on the sell side we have soveriegn debt.

Worries over Greece moving from a 6% budget defecit to a 12%
budget defecit has caused crisis.

Another country with a budget defecit in that area is the UK.
Then there is Spain which is linked to Latin America who are key creditors. Mexico is bundled in there.

Then we have Ukraine and Poland could get drawn in.

The printing machine is going at a furious rate now next year we hill have machine 3.0 working.

The beauty of fiat currency is that in times of crisis it is great for paper stocks.]]> Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:28:53 -0500
On the buy side we have to follow Buffett and deep value plays.

However on the sell side we have soveriegn debt.

Worries over Greece moving from a 6% budget defecit to a 12%
budget defecit has caused crisis.

Another country with a budget defecit in that area is the UK.
Then there is Spain which is linked to Latin America who are key creditors. Mexico is bundled in there.

Then we have Ukraine and Poland could get drawn in.

The printing machine is going at a furious rate now next year we hill have machine 3.0 working.

The beauty of fiat currency is that in times of crisis it is great for paper stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178259-in-a-slow-market-standing-aside?source=feed#comment-807145 807145
As Jesse Livermore instructed sometimes you should just stand aside and let matters play out.

The problem is discipline and that is what always kills returns.

Right now we are waiting around the 1115 -1120 inflection point.]]> Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:25:02 -0500
As Jesse Livermore instructed sometimes you should just stand aside and let matters play out.

The problem is discipline and that is what always kills returns.

Right now we are waiting around the 1115 -1120 inflection point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175337-jacobs-engineering-cementing-a-leadership-spot-in-oil-sands?source=feed#comment-802882 802882
Personally I favour FLR last time it was trading at 40 it was throwing off $1.48 in earnings this year expected to throw off over $3.

Technically weakening all the time. Could hit mid 30's that is why I like it as a play long term.

This group is a contrarian play and one where patience is needed.

Short term it ain't going to get hot. Give's one plenty of time to accumulate over the next 6 months.]]> Sat, 12 Dec 2009 11:35:50 -0500
Personally I favour FLR last time it was trading at 40 it was throwing off $1.48 in earnings this year expected to throw off over $3.

Technically weakening all the time. Could hit mid 30's that is why I like it as a play long term.

This group is a contrarian play and one where patience is needed.

Short term it ain't going to get hot. Give's one plenty of time to accumulate over the next 6 months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170180-this-week-s-recap-goldman-s-sucker-punch?source=feed#comment-737347 737347
It then has lodged at the bottom of this year's uptrend line.

It makes an asymetrical triangle and now we wait as the lines squeeze together which way it breaks.

This should be decided in the next ten days.

We also have to remember coming to the end of the year people want to book those gains.

My bias is a downdraft to around 900.

Though it can do this slowly rising each time to the top of the yearly resistance lines (sucking in money) and then falling lower with the muti year trend.]]> Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:35:25 -0400
It then has lodged at the bottom of this year's uptrend line.

It makes an asymetrical triangle and now we wait as the lines squeeze together which way it breaks.

This should be decided in the next ten days.

We also have to remember coming to the end of the year people want to book those gains.

My bias is a downdraft to around 900.

Though it can do this slowly rising each time to the top of the yearly resistance lines (sucking in money) and then falling lower with the muti year trend.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170205-the-economy-is-bipolar-get-used-to-it?source=feed#comment-737338 737338
Gordon Brown would sell his wife into slavery for that number.]]> Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:23:35 -0400
Gordon Brown would sell his wife into slavery for that number.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169878-bemused-by-gdp-figures?source=feed#comment-736001 736001
We have the PMI figures tomorrow and the ISM index Monday.

They will provide the initial spur for either a rally back and over the previous high or a continuation of the fade.

Today was a snap back from short term oversold conditions.

The other problem is that the volume in the market has been falling from the last four to five months. We need a substantial increase in volume to smash forward.

The question is there this much vaunted cash waiting on the sidelines? Or as the volume decrease shows has it been allocated and now reaped?]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 15:43:09 -0400
We have the PMI figures tomorrow and the ISM index Monday.

They will provide the initial spur for either a rally back and over the previous high or a continuation of the fade.

Today was a snap back from short term oversold conditions.

The other problem is that the volume in the market has been falling from the last four to five months. We need a substantial increase in volume to smash forward.

The question is there this much vaunted cash waiting on the sidelines? Or as the volume decrease shows has it been allocated and now reaped?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164985-the-liquid-upside-for-energy-recovery-s-desalination-technology?source=feed#comment-710589 710589
They need some strong contracts to ignite attention. This stock has had a lot of great coverage and more disappointments for many investors.

A good company bought at the wrong price does not make a great investment.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:06:14 -0400
They need some strong contracts to ignite attention. This stock has had a lot of great coverage and more disappointments for many investors.

A good company bought at the wrong price does not make a great investment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161952-time-to-invest-in-tech-stocks?source=feed#comment-680396 680396
But in an earlier article you had it on your list of over leveraged companies.

What has made you do an about turn, if you regard it too highly leveraged?]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 07:30:58 -0400
But in an earlier article you had it on your list of over leveraged companies.

What has made you do an about turn, if you regard it too highly leveraged?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159908-jobless-claims-stuck-at-570-000?source=feed#comment-662030 662030
Then key pivot points at 1006 and 1010 taken out you know there is some incredible Kool Aid being pumped into the stock market machine.

CNBC came out with the huge positive that the 10k less then expected lost jobs showed the market was powering.

El-Erian may be a bond guy but when he talks, of the equity sugar rush on CNBC, he should be referring to the crack pipe that everyone seems to be smoking when they cheer these numbers.

The stock market has been rising on bad and selling on good.
So we should be at 1100 at the end of the month after this reaction.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:48:55 -0400
Then key pivot points at 1006 and 1010 taken out you know there is some incredible Kool Aid being pumped into the stock market machine.

CNBC came out with the huge positive that the 10k less then expected lost jobs showed the market was powering.

El-Erian may be a bond guy but when he talks, of the equity sugar rush on CNBC, he should be referring to the crack pipe that everyone seems to be smoking when they cheer these numbers.

The stock market has been rising on bad and selling on good.
So we should be at 1100 at the end of the month after this reaction.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153555-five-reasons-the-market-could-crash-this-fall?source=feed#comment-614223 614223
Take a wild guess how that was received.

He stated trading desks have made their money on the upside.
Now they will not be able to make such large sized gains here and the programs will be taking it to the downside and when they do it will be a violent sell off.

The idea was greeted with total bemusement.

October will tell the tale the key is not being the fish that got hooked.]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 08:30:52 -0400
Take a wild guess how that was received.

He stated trading desks have made their money on the upside.
Now they will not be able to make such large sized gains here and the programs will be taking it to the downside and when they do it will be a violent sell off.

The idea was greeted with total bemusement.

October will tell the tale the key is not being the fish that got hooked.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150753-the-consumer-is-not-back-but-thanks-for-the-markup-in-stock-price?source=feed#comment-599813 599813
Looking at the reports most of these superior results were created on declining sales. Right now margin management is the new mantra.

Before it was the reflation trade that was linked to the stimulus trade that went before it.

You know where we are going after that back to the stimulus trade.

The daisy chain is intact.

Bottom line it's perception that masters reality as the greatest investor of all pointed out - Gordon Gekko.

He was real and he lived unlike the wonderful Caterpillar results that burst out the page. ]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 14:34:10 -0400
Looking at the reports most of these superior results were created on declining sales. Right now margin management is the new mantra.

Before it was the reflation trade that was linked to the stimulus trade that went before it.

You know where we are going after that back to the stimulus trade.

The daisy chain is intact.

Bottom line it's perception that masters reality as the greatest investor of all pointed out - Gordon Gekko.

He was real and he lived unlike the wonderful Caterpillar results that burst out the page. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149776-potash-and-agrium-possible-agriculture-shorts?source=feed#comment-595335 595335
Maybe using some option play is best.
The index etf's are obviously not anywhere near as volatile.

Buy-write's come to mind maybe a small position long term on the stock and sell the index. May not earn a lot from it but can just chip away and brings down the aggregate cost of the stock. While potential losses should be kept within discernable limits.]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 13:35:57 -0400
Maybe using some option play is best.
The index etf's are obviously not anywhere near as volatile.

Buy-write's come to mind maybe a small position long term on the stock and sell the index. May not earn a lot from it but can just chip away and brings down the aggregate cost of the stock. While potential losses should be kept within discernable limits.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148456-potash-s-negative-price-implications?source=feed#comment-586057 586057
Pick your analyst and takes your choice is the old adage.

Long term ie five year time horizon POT and AGU at these prices are interesting entry points. We have to be aware of possible further cuts in earnings.

Countering that agricultural inventories are at historical lows and they will proceed to get worse, Malthus's mathmatical formula regarding agriculture and population increases will come into play.

Within the next twenty years we have another billion mouths to feed while the agricultural land available for development even with the felling of the rainforests has decreased by over 8% in twenty year time period. It will decrease further as China and India develop.

Agriculture is most definitely the sector for the long term. It is Green Gold.]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 13:48:40 -0400
Pick your analyst and takes your choice is the old adage.

Long term ie five year time horizon POT and AGU at these prices are interesting entry points. We have to be aware of possible further cuts in earnings.

Countering that agricultural inventories are at historical lows and they will proceed to get worse, Malthus's mathmatical formula regarding agriculture and population increases will come into play.

Within the next twenty years we have another billion mouths to feed while the agricultural land available for development even with the felling of the rainforests has decreased by over 8% in twenty year time period. It will decrease further as China and India develop.

Agriculture is most definitely the sector for the long term. It is Green Gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132481-amazon-earnings-preview-how-long-before-the-jig-is-up?source=feed#comment-495202 495202 Thereby you set a stop with regard the amount of money
you have at risk. At some point they will be found out and gap lower
and you have a time frame to exploit it if you are right.

Its the method that Nick Taleb (Black Swan) uses so that when some sense returns to the market with regard this stock's valuation you make some money if correct.]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 07:58:36 -0400 Thereby you set a stop with regard the amount of money
you have at risk. At some point they will be found out and gap lower
and you have a time frame to exploit it if you are right.

Its the method that Nick Taleb (Black Swan) uses so that when some sense returns to the market with regard this stock's valuation you make some money if correct.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134918-value-your-stocks-thoughtfully?source=feed#comment-488900 488900
Like low PE stocks taken out of context they can lead to value traps.

Generally stocks with good cashflow and strong returns on Investment outperform then market.

It's important point to make isolating single metrics can lead to real problems in performance.

]]> Mon, 04 May 2009 12:58:48 -0400
Like low PE stocks taken out of context they can lead to value traps.

Generally stocks with good cashflow and strong returns on Investment outperform then market.

It's important point to make isolating single metrics can lead to real problems in performance.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133818-possible-nyse-euronext-options-trade?source=feed#comment-483623 483623
With regard the dividend is this a relatively safe one?]]> Thu, 30 Apr 2009 06:28:34 -0400
With regard the dividend is this a relatively safe one?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129910-the-slippery-slope-of-declining-petrochemical-demand?source=feed#comment-455943 455943
However the fact that exploration projects are terminated means that we will see prices increase as supply is limited. Oil sands will no longer be a viable supply source as the price of refinement is too high.

My view is the market will be range bound. However 18 months time we will return to 70 dollar oil.

Honda are doing amazing things with hydrogen cars however those developing economies like their oil and are going to retain their fossil fuels for a decade or more at the very least.]]> Wed, 08 Apr 2009 08:51:48 -0400
However the fact that exploration projects are terminated means that we will see prices increase as supply is limited. Oil sands will no longer be a viable supply source as the price of refinement is too high.

My view is the market will be range bound. However 18 months time we will return to 70 dollar oil.

Honda are doing amazing things with hydrogen cars however those developing economies like their oil and are going to retain their fossil fuels for a decade or more at the very least.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127322-here-we-go-again-another-u-s-bad-bank-plan?source=feed#comment-437064 437064
You can fool some of the people some of the time.
But it's better when you try to fool all of the people
all of the time.]]> Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:08:31 -0400
You can fool some of the people some of the time.
But it's better when you try to fool all of the people
all of the time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127016-the-rally-is-at-a-crossroads?source=feed#comment-433855 433855 mark to market accounting.

They need to get more investment bucks into the system they are looking for others to do the heavy lifting.

Stimulating the markets is the key stimulus for now and probably rightly so as perception is the key reality.

]]> Fri, 20 Mar 2009 14:19:26 -0400 mark to market accounting.

They need to get more investment bucks into the system they are looking for others to do the heavy lifting.

Stimulating the markets is the key stimulus for now and probably rightly so as perception is the key reality.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126302-trends-in-stocks-remain-down?source=feed#comment-429585 429585
What we have to see is whether we are at a real inflection point.
We will find that out over the next couple of months.

Investing with the long term trend whichever the direction is the most profitable form of trading. ]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:56:26 -0400
What we have to see is whether we are at a real inflection point.
We will find that out over the next couple of months.

Investing with the long term trend whichever the direction is the most profitable form of trading. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114549-using-sector-weight-analysis-to-identify-the-next-bubble?source=feed#comment-354305 354305
Interesting article and something well worth monitoring as time goes by.
I think updates for weighting would be appreciated.

In a previous article you were hopeful for fertilizer stocks right now very tricky to predict how they will react. Corn prices are weak. Any thoughts?

All the best


Stez]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:34:53 -0500
Interesting article and something well worth monitoring as time goes by.
I think updates for weighting would be appreciated.

In a previous article you were hopeful for fertilizer stocks right now very tricky to predict how they will react. Corn prices are weak. Any thoughts?

All the best


Stez]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111579-helmerich-payne-winning-a-rigged-game?source=feed#comment-333935 333935
HP makes an interesting trade since they are noted land drillers.
There rigs are cheaper to operate than the offshore group so should see greater robustness in terms of avoiding cancelled contracts and cancelled expansions.

Key is when Oil recovers that is why I find your trades stimulating.]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 11:03:09 -0500
HP makes an interesting trade since they are noted land drillers.
There rigs are cheaper to operate than the offshore group so should see greater robustness in terms of avoiding cancelled contracts and cancelled expansions.

Key is when Oil recovers that is why I find your trades stimulating.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104689-investing-in-steel-just-plain-good-sense?source=feed#comment-300187 300187
Thanks]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 11:51:18 -0500
Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96369-options-trader-friday-outlook?source=feed#comment-259205 259205 There is no way they will allow it to come back in October.

Putting all the bad debt on the taxpayer is a fantastic way to help China
gain financial pre-eminance even if their economy is more dodgy than the US.

The only thing one can say is that when JP Morgan went on his huge buying spree and the short sellers were nobbled financial stability was regained.

The best trade in this case is to short that result occurring again But now I can't.

]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 12:44:18 -0400 There is no way they will allow it to come back in October.

Putting all the bad debt on the taxpayer is a fantastic way to help China
gain financial pre-eminance even if their economy is more dodgy than the US.

The only thing one can say is that when JP Morgan went on his huge buying spree and the short sellers were nobbled financial stability was regained.

The best trade in this case is to short that result occurring again But now I can't.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92019-hedge-fund-tracking-lone-pine-capital-steven-mandel?source=feed#comment-236745 236745 Fri, 22 Aug 2008 15:30:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90903-two-stocks-that-are-likely-to-double?source=feed#comment-230462 230462
As another investor who has followed LMC what are your thoughts at present?]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:17:31 -0400
As another investor who has followed LMC what are your thoughts at present?]]>