Stez

This Week's Recap: Goldman's Sucker Punch

Looking at the weekly S+P charts the market hit it's head on the top of the yearly downtrend line.

It then has lodged at the bottom of this year's uptrend line.

It makes an asymetrical triangle and now we wait as the lines squeeze together which way it breaks.

This should be decided in the next ten days.

We also have to remember coming to the end of the year people want to book those gains.

My bias is a downdraft to around 900.

Though it can do this slowly rising each time to the top of the yearly resistance lines (sucking in money) and then falling lower with the muti year trend.

Bemused by GDP Figures

As David Rosenberg pointed out the OECD survey states that the stimulus increased GDP by 5%. Work out the sums from there when looking at GDP.

We have the PMI figures tomorrow and the ISM index Monday.

They will provide the initial spur for either a rally back and over the previous high or a continuation of the fade.

Today was a snap back from short term oversold conditions.

The other problem is that the volume in the market has been falling from the last four to five months. We need a substantial increase in volume to smash forward.

The question is there this much vaunted cash waiting on the sidelines? Or as the volume decrease shows has it been allocated and now reaped?

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

Enzio Von Pfiel was putting forward precisely this proposition on CNBC.

Take a wild guess how that was received.

He stated trading desks have made their money on the upside.
Now they will not be able to make such large sized gains here and the programs will be taking it to the downside and when they do it will be a violent sell off.

The idea was greeted with total bemusement.

October will tell the tale the key is not being the fish that got hooked.

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

Ther will be a ban on short selling till January or beyond.
There is no way they will allow it to come back in October.

Putting all the bad debt on the taxpayer is a fantastic way to help China
gain financial pre-eminance even if their economy is more dodgy than the US.

The only thing one can say is that when JP Morgan went on his huge buying spree and the short sellers were nobbled financial stability was regained.

The best trade in this case is to short that result occurring again But now I can't.