DavyJ

S&P 500 Priced in Gold

Yawn. What difference does it make? Either you invested in one or the other or both. The past is past.

Now you're asking a question about the future. The truth is that I don't know and since you're asking I guess you don't know either. Yawn.

Economic Data Showing Signs of Negative Trends

Why is it that we need two negative quarters to declare a recession has begun and only one positive quarter to declare a recession has ended?

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

$787,000,000,000 stimulus created 650,000 jobs so far. That $1,210,769 per job.

But it's on track for 3,500,000 jobs created by the end of the year so that will only be $224,857 per job.

Well, we'll see.

What Crash? Greenspan’s ‘Black Monday’ Blooper

Greenspan records the same conversation on page 105 of his book "The Age of Turbulence"

Looking Back at Fiscal 2009

Personal income tax revenue was approximately 4 times the corporate tax revenue in 2008. So 20% of $1,425 billion is $285 billion and 54% of $354 billion is $191 billion using 2008 figures. FICA is also reported in the same chart. There may be more up-to-date monthly reports available on the website. Sorry, I don't have the time to research further.

www.irs.gov/pub/irs-so...

Excellent point about using FICA data to determine employment, by the way. Monthly data would be THE defining number. Much more accurate than some survey of a small percentage of the population.

On Oct 11 09:25 AM Pat C wrote:

> To what extent in actual dollars is the 20% personal income tax decline
> compared to the 54% for corporate? Also does the government report
> somewhere a comparison of FICA (Social Security) contributions? It
> would seem to me that comparing FICA contributions would be an excellent
> indicator of the employment situation rather than the BLS estimates.
> Personal income tax has been subject to alot of manipulation so I
> don't think it would be a good measurement, but FICA should be.

Why Eliminating Earnings Guidance Is a Bad Idea

Re: "Research studies show that ending guidance not only reduces the amount of information disseminated to shareholders, it also increases uncertainty and the disparity between actual earnings and the consensus estimate.
"In addition, it results in a statistically significant loss in shareholder wealth..."

Exactly how does it do that?

Manufacturing, Exported Goods Sharply Up: So What's the Problem?

I think you missed something very subtle in Tom's comment.


On Oct 04 10:52 AM Ricard wrote:
...
> Tom Armistead wrote:
...

Is Another October Surprise in the Works?

Re: "The interesting thing about the 1987 event was the recovery time. On a percentage basis, the loss was massive – 31% in five days for the DJIA. Yet it took just a tad under two years for the index to fully recover in nominal terms."

Another interesting thing about 1987 is that it was an up year. The DJIA finished 1986 at 1896.00 and finished 1987 at 1938.80 a 2.26% increase. Same for the S&P 500.

Is the Jobs Data a Concern?

Re: "First, don't panic. It's just normal market fluctuations. Stocks have risen for 7 consecutive months, so we're overdue for a pullback. Even the strongest of bull markets incur periodic bad days (and weeks)."

On the other hand, when there is panic, he who panics first gets the best price.

How Inflation Concealed the DJIA's Precipitous Decline over the Last Decade

Considering that GM wasn't taken out until after the damage was done, I'd say it's an accurate reflection.

And if you're using the DJIA as a benchmark against your own portfolio, surely you are making adjustments there.

Also, don't forget to add in the dividends for the DJIA as you do for the dividends you receive.


On Sep 30 08:19 AM Tony Petroski wrote:

> Mr. Hyperinflation: I think you have written an article that many
> will agree with.
>
> What language do you speak? I take it you're not an English major.
>
>
> I would add, in addition to the theme that the real value of the
> Dow is less than appears, that whenever a company, for example, GM,
> is headed to oblivion, another company heading up is substituted
> in its place. Hence, comparing the Dow of the '30's or the '70's
> to the present Dow is comparing apples to oranges.

How Much Sidelined Money Remains?

Re: "A broader measure of reserves that includes cash, bank deposits and money-market funds has climbed to $9.55 trillion this month, based on data compiled by the Fed. That’s enough to buy all of the companies in the S&P 500, which have a combined market value of $9.37 trillion, Bloomberg data show."

So suppose all of that $9.55 trillion changed hands and the old cash holders now own all of the S&P 500 and the old owners of the total S&P 500 now hold all of the cash. What has changed. Nothing! Just an exchange of assets. That's why the NYSE is called an exchange. Or the NASDAQ, AMEX, whatever.

Well yes, something will have changed. Those holding stock who wanted to get rid of it did. Now they hold the cash and will no longer be shouting that there's all this cash on the sidelines.

Think about it.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Exactly who would take the loss on the toxic assets the Federal Reserve holds should the worst happen?

Who would reap the rewards if the best happens?

Do the profits or losses just stay there forever?

Could the Federal Reserve go into conservatorship?

The Recovery Was Too Expensive

Exactly who would take the loss on the toxic assets the Federal Reserve holds should the worst happen?

Who would reap the rewards if the best happens?

Do the profits or losses just stay there forever?

Could the Federal Reserve go into conservatorship?

Options Trader: Flash Ban Friday?

Exactly who would take the loss on the toxic assets the Federal Reserve holds should the worst happen?

Who would reap the rewards if the best happens?

Do the profits or losses just stay there forever?

Could the Federal Reserve go into conservatorship?

The Best Quote of 2009

This should be the quote of the decade:

"The most recent projections from the OMB indicate that, if current policies remain in place, the total unified surplus will reach $800 billion in fiscal year 2011…The most recent projections, granted their tentativeness, nonetheless make clear that the highly desirable goal of paying off the federal debt is in reach before the end of the decade."

Alan Greenspan speaking in the 2001 Congressional Testimony