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DavyJ

DavyJ
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  • Hetty Green: The Grandmother Of Value Investing [View article]
    jrnpanther

    Well if they only bought Polaroid, Eastman Kodak and Digital Equipment and never bought Apple, Microsoft, or any of the Dow Industrials, you may have a point.

    But what if you had only bought 100 shares of every stock you have ever owned and never sold. I sure wish I would have done that. I've bought a bunch of losers, but I have sold more winners much to my regret.
    Jun 29 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biggest Story Of 2014 - The Return Of The Inflation Trade [View article]
    Re: "where is inflation going to come from?"

    ArthurK: As pointed out in the article, housing.

    I would very much like to sell my current place and buy something equivalent in the area. But all the equivalents seem to be rising faster than mine even though mine has appreciated nicely in the last year.

    And with the proposed minimum wage increases, demand will increase all through the wage scale. Increasing demand and buying power equates to inflation.
    Jun 22 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Minimum Wage: The Facts [View article]
    mobyss,

    Also consider: The median Social Security benefit is approximately $1275 per month which works out to be $7.35 per hour. With over 40 million people receiving Social Security, 20 million will fall further behind the new minimum wage.

    And with everyone you mentioned trying to keep up, or actually keeping up, the poverty level threshold will naturally rise so anyone who doesn't participate in the insanity will remain in or fall below the threshold. What's changed?
    Jun 18 08:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hot Button Issue: Rant Warning [View article]
    Rant as much as you like. I'll still read what you write. I recently replaced my 13 year old car for only 17% over the original cost. Considering the technological improvements and accessories, I actually consider it cheaper.

    Phone bills are another story though. :)
    May 20 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Were Starting All Over Again [View article]
    Re: "Your plan worked great in this bull market, but how would you feel if you started this in 2007, or 1999."

    It would have been even better. Dollar cost averaging all the way down would have been great when the market recovered as it did.
    May 20 08:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rates Make Stock Bubble Bigger Than In 2000 And 1929 [View article]
    Re: "If the economy were to strengthen enough to move the 10-year yield up to 4.8% the stock decline should be fairly mild."

    If the 10-year yield goes up to 4.8%, I, and I think some others, just might sell some equities and buy some 10-years. The more that think that way, the greater the decline. I would expect.
    May 20 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wage Inflation? [View article]
    Since wages are not equal across the board, and inflation is also not equal across the board, and those on fixed income don't receive wages, a general 10% increase in wages will not affect everyone equally. The haves receiving the increase will push down the relative worth of the wages and fixed income of the have-nots and therefore those have-nots will indeed see inflation. Or to put it another way, they'll see a lack of purchasing power which amounts to the same thing.
    May 2 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price Set To Resume Its Long-Term Upward Trend [View article]
    Re: "U.S. investors making changes to their asset allocation this year are increasingly opting for precious metals based on the recent reversal from net outflows to net inflows for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). The GLD trust added 1.5 tonnes last week following an addition of 10.5 tonnes in February, the first month of inflows since late-2012, and GLD holdings have risen during six of the last eight weeks. These inflows are not yet large, but it is the change in trend that is important here as GLD is widely considered to be a good gauge of gold sentiment in the West."

    I'm confused. If inflows to GLD are increasing, doesn't that mean that holders of bullion are actually selling their bullion to GLD? They then can either sell their GLD shares and are out of the gold market which could be considered a negative, or they could hold their GLD shares which would be considered neutral. Neither case is a positive.

    Anyone care to explain?
    Mar 9 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Is Not A Danger [View article]
    Ba1k3es,

    Re: "Debtors should rejoice inflation as their debts become less burdensome rather than more burdensome under deflation."

    Only true if you're rich enough to be eligible for relatively long term debt.

    Not true if "you are referring to the lower incomes and wealth groups of society."
    Mar 8 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting On Cash, Debunking The Sacred Cow Of Investing [View article]
    Re: "Investors who had bought the S&P500 at the peak of 2000 would have needed to wait an excruciating 7 years before they broke even. An additional 6 years was needed after the 2008 crisis should the investor continue to hold."

    But the investor who was dollar cost averaging was buying all the while and did very well. Buying in 2002 and 2009. Who says you can't buy at the absolute bottom!
    Feb 27 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Business Model, Valuation And Minimum Wage Legislation [View article]
    Re: "If the minimum wage had been raised on an annual basis since it was last increased,
    ...
    Adjusted for inflation it would be more like $15 an hour."

    Probably more like $20 because CPI would have increased at a greater rate. I am in the camp that inflation is not a good thing.

    Also consider: The median Social Security benefit is approximately $1275 per month which works out to be $7.35 per hour. With over 40 million people receiving Social Security, 20 million will fall further behind minimum wage. In other words they definitely won't be contributing to a more robust economy.
    Feb 27 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Is Not A Risk, It Is A Necessity [View article]
    Re: "If the entitlements were all funded by taxes, every taxpayer would have to ante up a bit more than $21,000 to pay for the 2010 entitlements, an amount which would rise to something like $29,500 by 2030 (in constant 2010 dollars). The average household income in the United States today is $53,046. Since there are 115 million households, you can infer that average income per employed person is $45,187 (115/135 x $53,046).

    "Taxing $45,000 annual income to pay for $21,000 in entitlements (as of 2010) requires an average 47% income tax rate. Assuming incomes grow in real terms by 3% a year through 2030 the average income in 2030 will be about $49,300. A tax rate of 60% would be needed in that year to fund entitlements."

    But we have a progressive tax structure so an employed person earning $45,000 is not paying anywhere neat 47% income tax rate.

    And if inflation is adding to the burden of funding the entitlements, then more inflation is not going to ease the burden.

    The masses are being brainwashed that inflation is necessary. Repeat it long enough and more of the masses become to believe it.

    This is not to say there isn't a problem, but inflation is not a solution to the problem.
    Jan 2 09:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Minimum Wages - The Most Vulnerable Sector And Company [View article]
    Only if you're rich enough to be eligible for relatively long term debt.
    Jan 2 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Minimum Wages - The Most Vulnerable Sector And Company [View article]
    Well inflation may be running below the Fed's target rate for several years, but it's above my target rate.

    As an octogenarian, you should know how inflation affects the poor much more than the rich, and suggesting an increase in inflation to go along with a minimum wage increase hurts the very people you are touting to help.
    Jan 2 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Minimum Wages - The Most Vulnerable Sector And Company [View article]
    I was referring to the comment that the employers should go out of business (or improve their business plan). That smacks of "if you are unskilled and can only be employed for minimum wage, then you should get an education and therefore command a higher wage" which is not only practically, but theoretically impossible.

    In the end, the "few lost jobs" are still lost.
    Dec 31 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
409 Comments
582 Likes