Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View DavyJ's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Important Bearish Signal In Dow Jones Industrials [View article]
    For the DJIA, last week looks pretty much the same pattern as the fourth week in January.

    This week start looks like it may be the same as the first week of February.

    Why wasn't the fourth week in January marked as a "Bearish Week"? Hindsight?
    Aug 10, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Payout Ratios Predicted The Last 2 Recessions And Best Buying Opportunities [View article]
    It seems to me that you use the term "investor" when you mean "speculator". To suggest that in investor take "a more passive role in 2005 through 2007" based upon the payout ratio is total speculation, not investing.

    And to suggest that the "investor" would have the foresight to become aggressive after payout ratios have begun to normalize is again pure speculation.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple, Google, Facebook, Alibaba Or American Express Will Acquire PayPal [View article]
    I don't know about others but I refuse to allow direct access to my bank account by PayPal. From time to time they allow me to use PayPal with only one credit card. Then some time later they insist I add a second credit to complete a transaction though they say nothing about the link to my bank account. I refuse to add another credit card or link to my bank account and they don't allow me to complete the purchase. Then after some time they do allow me to use their service for a year or so. Then the cycle repeats.

    Not a way to run a railroad as they say.
    Jul 22, 2015. 08:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Shiller P/E Wrong About Valuations? [View article]
    See my post above. CAPE averages the earnings over ten years but then computes the ratio using a single day's price. Like you said "It makes no sense."
    Jul 7, 2015. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. crude sinks 7.7% to $52.53 in worst day since April [View news story]
    Commodity traders trade. Sometimes they win, sometimes the lose. Lately it seems they have lost touch with reality.

    Just for fun, remember Amaranth Advisors, among others, back in 2006.

    As long as I NEVER sell and the oil majors' dividends aren't completely cut, I have free gasoline from the dividends for the rest of my life. These ups and downs, while discouraging on a daily basis, even out over the long run. CVX, XOM, etc. will outlive me.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks hiking prices for coffee, other drinks [View news story]
    Well they had to compensate for the rise in minimum wage increases and college tuition benefits somehow.

    You didn't think those benevolent did you?
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Shiller P/E Wrong About Valuations? [View article]
    Well if you're going to average earnings over ten years, then it seems to reason that you should average prices over ten years.

    The current DJIA ten year price average is approximately 13,500. Modified CAPE PE ~20.5.

    The current S&P 500 ten year average is approximately 1,480. Modified CAPE PE ~ 19.2.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The CAPE Graph Really Shows: No, It's Not A Bubble [View article]
    I never understood how one could use a ten year moving average of earnings to compute a PE using the current stock price. A reasonable person would use the ten year average of stock prices.

    But, then again, the library is full of economic books (among others) I don't understand.
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Adding Apple To The DJIA Makes It A Good Investment [View article]

    Will anyone ever present a convincing argument that a move in the heaviest weighted component of the SPY (right now Apple) should exert almost four hundred times the effect of a move in the lightest weighted (right now Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.).

    The top 10 Holdings comprise 17.35% of Total Assets.

    The top 50 components of the SPY have roughly the same weight as the bottom 450 components. How is that rational?
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAPE Fear: Should We Brace For Below Average Returns? [View article]
    I admit to being a little slow, but if you are going to average the earnings over 10 years, wouldn't it be logical to average the index over 10 years?

    December 2014
    2058.90 Close
    $122.74 Earnings
    1,425.00 S&P 10 year moving average (eyeballed from bigcharts)
    11.61 10 year averaged PE
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things could get interesting overnight [View news story]
    And software only costs the price of a CD to distribute it on.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Jones Today Shows Warning Signs [View article]
    Re: "The best analogy I've heard for bubbles and why they ultimately burst is the example of dropping grains of sand that build a mound. It gets steeper and steeper until one grain of sand causes an avalanche."

    But the avalanche doesn't destroy the mound. It builds a new base and additional grains of sand build the mound to new heights. Just like the stock market and inflation. Temporary setbacks, then on to new highs.
    Oct 9, 2014. 08:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trying To Follow The Dow [View article]
    Just another example of selling call options to increase income doesn't work in an up market. Stocks get called away and the seller has to buy back at a higher price than the strike plus the premium received.
    Aug 24, 2014. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Religion Of Doom And Gloom [View article]
    Just a quick peruse of your website doesn't seem to have an archive of your series of articles entitled "The Perfect Financial Storm - Part 1 - 10" which were the epitome of "doom-and-gloom "financial-tainment" industry".

    The logic in that series cost me dearly. Glad to see that you have been born again.

    But where are the archives?
    Aug 16, 2014. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Investors About To Get Fleeced Again [View article]
    It's all in the interpretation of the chart. The way I see it is that at market bottoms retail investors having a lot of cash start putting that cash to work, and continue to do so all the way up. So at the top they are naturally heavily in stocks and not cash. Then as the market starts falling, they sell stocks and build cash and the cycle repeats again. It's not like they went to cash all at once at the bottom or suddenly bought stocks at the top. T'was a gradual process according to the chart. As I said, it's all in the interpretation.

    On the other hand, there were, and still are, many articles on Seeking Alpha written by semi-professionals that stressed they were going to cash all during the rise from the lows of 2009, the most hated bull market of all time. A good many commenters agreed.
    Aug 11, 2014. 12:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment