DavyJ

Manufacturing, Exported Goods Sharply Up: So What's the Problem?

I think you missed something very subtle in Tom's comment.


On Oct 04 10:52 AM Ricard wrote:
...
> Tom Armistead wrote:
...

Is Another October Surprise in the Works?

Re: "The interesting thing about the 1987 event was the recovery time. On a percentage basis, the loss was massive – 31% in five days for the DJIA. Yet it took just a tad under two years for the index to fully recover in nominal terms."

Another interesting thing about 1987 is that it was an up year. The DJIA finished 1986 at 1896.00 and finished 1987 at 1938.80 a 2.26% increase. Same for the S&P 500.

Is the Jobs Data a Concern?

Re: "First, don't panic. It's just normal market fluctuations. Stocks have risen for 7 consecutive months, so we're overdue for a pullback. Even the strongest of bull markets incur periodic bad days (and weeks)."

On the other hand, when there is panic, he who panics first gets the best price.

How Inflation Concealed the DJIA's Precipitous Decline over the Last Decade

Considering that GM wasn't taken out until after the damage was done, I'd say it's an accurate reflection.

And if you're using the DJIA as a benchmark against your own portfolio, surely you are making adjustments there.

Also, don't forget to add in the dividends for the DJIA as you do for the dividends you receive.


On Sep 30 08:19 AM Tony Petroski wrote:

> Mr. Hyperinflation: I think you have written an article that many
> will agree with.
>
> What language do you speak? I take it you're not an English major.
>
>
> I would add, in addition to the theme that the real value of the
> Dow is less than appears, that whenever a company, for example, GM,
> is headed to oblivion, another company heading up is substituted
> in its place. Hence, comparing the Dow of the '30's or the '70's
> to the present Dow is comparing apples to oranges.

How Much Sidelined Money Remains?

Re: "A broader measure of reserves that includes cash, bank deposits and money-market funds has climbed to $9.55 trillion this month, based on data compiled by the Fed. That’s enough to buy all of the companies in the S&P 500, which have a combined market value of $9.37 trillion, Bloomberg data show."

So suppose all of that $9.55 trillion changed hands and the old cash holders now own all of the S&P 500 and the old owners of the total S&P 500 now hold all of the cash. What has changed. Nothing! Just an exchange of assets. That's why the NYSE is called an exchange. Or the NASDAQ, AMEX, whatever.

Well yes, something will have changed. Those holding stock who wanted to get rid of it did. Now they hold the cash and will no longer be shouting that there's all this cash on the sidelines.

Think about it.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Exactly who would take the loss on the toxic assets the Federal Reserve holds should the worst happen?

Who would reap the rewards if the best happens?

Do the profits or losses just stay there forever?

Could the Federal Reserve go into conservatorship?

The Recovery Was Too Expensive

Exactly who would take the loss on the toxic assets the Federal Reserve holds should the worst happen?

Who would reap the rewards if the best happens?

Do the profits or losses just stay there forever?

Could the Federal Reserve go into conservatorship?

Options Trader: Flash Ban Friday?

Exactly who would take the loss on the toxic assets the Federal Reserve holds should the worst happen?

Who would reap the rewards if the best happens?

Do the profits or losses just stay there forever?

Could the Federal Reserve go into conservatorship?

The Best Quote of 2009

This should be the quote of the decade:

"The most recent projections from the OMB indicate that, if current policies remain in place, the total unified surplus will reach $800 billion in fiscal year 2011…The most recent projections, granted their tentativeness, nonetheless make clear that the highly desirable goal of paying off the federal debt is in reach before the end of the decade."

Alan Greenspan speaking in the 2001 Congressional Testimony

Weekly ETF Rewind: Back in Overbought Territory

Over-bought or not, look at this almost perfect inverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

It's odd that I see no other mention of this, considering how much the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart was in the news 5 or 6 weeks ago.

Kind of scary if one is bearish.

Or is this another setup to catch the technical analysts off guard?

Start of the Shorting Season?

I'm a little leery. Look at this almost perfect inverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

For fun look at the same chart of DOG, the inverse of DIA. Notice how we're now below the neckline. For more fun look at DXD or SDS.

Kind of scary if one is bearish.

Or is this another setup as was the daily head and shoulders of 4 or 5 weeks ago?

Which Historical Period Does this Market Resemble?

Excluding the current rally,4 of the previous 5 top performers were significantly higher at the end of their rallies than at the 45% point.

The 5th was still up 48%.

Momentum builds on momentum?

Confidence Games and Ponzi Schemes: No Way to Run the World's Largest Economy

As I was reading I highlighted this paragraph and was going to say that this says it all:
"But, what doesn't make sense is when we are told that an enduring economic rebound will require these now-thriftier Americans to "regain their confidence" in a system that has failed them so miserably over the last few years and, during a period of declining incomes and rising unemployment, go out and spend more money."

But the more I read, the more I realized I was mistaken. I can't narrow it down to a single paragraph.

Great article!

Abby Joseph Cohen's Bullish Calls

What's the debate about?

Abby works for Goldman Sachs and on July 20th with the S&P 500 at 950, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end price target on the S&P 500 from 940 to 1060. So far, so good.

Don't fight the Fed, er, I mean Goldman Sachs. For-warned is for-armed.

Put options if you're holding inverse ETFs anyone? Or is it too late?

The Fallacy of 'Money on the Sidelines'

Gee, every time I sell a stock I check with Trim Tabs to insure that my proceeds are reflected in their numbers. But it seems that whoever bought my stock made a corresponding withdrawal so the net amount in the money market funds remains the same.

One of life's mysteries, I suppose.