DavyJ

DavyJ
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  • Hyperinflation or Deflation: Which Will Win?  [View article]
    Re: "There is about $2 trillion in actual greenbacks floating around."

    Actually, it's about half that.

    www.fms.treas.gov/bull...
    Jan 12, 2010. 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Guide to Market Valuation (Hint - It's Overvalued)  [View article]
    Nice article. Neatly presented. Logical thinking. Pretty charts.

    Pretty charts? Umm, wait a minute, shouldn't the long term charts be logarithmic? It do make a difference.
    Jan 11, 2010. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here It Comes: Consider Yourself Warned  [View article]
    For the record, the median P:E for the DJIA companies is 16.65 for 2009 and the estimated median P:E for 2010 is 14.

    Only two companies posting losses in 2009, AA and BAC and none expected for 2010.

    Couple that with a dividend yield of 2.63%, well ...
    Jan 7, 2010. 08:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here It Comes: Consider Yourself Warned  [View article]
    One thought that crossed my mind prior to the invasion of Iraq was that in some circles it was a belief that wars were good to spur the economy. Lots of increased manufacturing with no market saturation. I.e. so much of it was disposable. Very little mention of it, if any, at the time, but I that it much more plausible than defending our source or oil, disposing of a tyrant, fighting over there rather than here, and all the other reasons that were in debate.

    Of course that didn't work out very well.
    Jan 7, 2010. 08:36 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Serious Divergence: Great Depression Dow vs. Great Recession S&P 500  [View article]
    History repeats itself.

    I have been seeing this same comparison for almost six months.
    Jan 3, 2010. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News  [View article]
    Gonna spend it and pay interest for ever and ever. That's what.


    On Dec 17 11:40 AM TBill wrote:

    > Left over TARP money??? Like there is a safe full of it and it's
    > just collecting dust??
    > There's no such thing. If they spend more money, they have to go
    > out and borrow it.
    > That's like planning to borrow and buy a $200k house, finding one
    > for $150 and saying 'gee, we got $50K left over, what are we going
    > to do with it?'
    Dec 17, 2009. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 PE Ratio: Looking Ahead to 2010-2011  [View article]
    Re: "After earnings for the S&P 500 companies fell off a cliff, investors anticipated the market would recover, leading to the record high PE ratio for the S&P 500."

    Actually they did not fall off a cliff. A few financial companies had tremendous losses and that pulled down the sum of the earnings, but the vast majority of companies reported acceptable earnings considering the state of the economy.

    A prudent investor would, or should, dig a litter deeper.
    Dec 16, 2009. 08:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News  [View article]
    "With the financial industry stabilized, and many banks having or about to repay the government's aid with interest, the government is in talks with lawmakers to use unspent TARP money to offset jobs spending and aid the long-term unemployed."

    Yep, once the money is out there, there is no getting it back. $200 billion at 3.5% (~ten year bond rate) interest is $70 billion over ten years that is automatically added to the deficit with no accountability.
    Dec 3, 2009. 12:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm (Cautiously) Optimistic About the Future  [View article]
    Isaac Watts?

    You're not confusing him with James Newton are you?
    Nov 29, 2009. 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Manufacturing Stalls, Retail Sales Rise (Somewhat)  [View article]
    Re: "Retail sales were expected to grow 0.9% over the prior month, but actually grew a better 1.4%, which started fueling the market before the open."

    But the report also said: "The government also revised the September results down to a 2.3 percent decline, from the 1.5 percent drop initially reported."

    Subtract the 0.8 percent revision and sales were actually 0.2 percent less than expected!

    But nevermind. Just minor details of a fraction of a percent.
    Nov 17, 2009. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Bounce, But Big-Name Investors Aren't Convinced  [View article]
    Re: "Retail sales were expected to grow 0.9% over the prior month, but actually grew a better 1.4%, which started fueling the market before the open."

    But the report also said: "The government also revised the September results down to a 2.3 percent decline, from the 1.5 percent drop initially reported."

    Subtract the 0.8 percent revision and sales were actually 0.2 percent less than expected!

    But nevermind. Just minor details of a fraction of a percent.
    Nov 16, 2009. 09:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Priced in Gold  [View article]
    Yawn. What difference does it make? Either you invested in one or the other or both. The past is past.

    Now you're asking a question about the future. The truth is that I don't know and since you're asking I guess you don't know either. Yawn.
    Nov 4, 2009. 08:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Data Showing Signs of Negative Trends  [View article]
    Why is it that we need two negative quarters to declare a recession has begun and only one positive quarter to declare a recession has ended?
    Nov 1, 2009. 03:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News  [View article]
    $787,000,000,000 stimulus created 650,000 jobs so far. That $1,210,769 per job.

    But it's on track for 3,500,000 jobs created by the end of the year so that will only be $224,857 per job.

    Well, we'll see.
    Oct 30, 2009. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Crash? Greenspan’s ‘Black Monday’ Blooper  [View article]
    Greenspan records the same conversation on page 105 of his book "The Age of Turbulence"
    Oct 20, 2009. 01:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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