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  • Jobless Claims as Percent of Labor Force Fall for 3rd Month in a Row [View article]
    Considering that 467,000 jobs were lost in June, 618,000 initial claims seems reasonable. The difference, 151,000, would indicate that approximately 25 percent of those were able to find another job. Or some from June, some from May, etc.

    Also, remember that there is no direct correlation between new claims and continuing unemployment. New claims could theoretically drop to zero and unemployment wouldn't necessarily have to show any decrease.

    On Jul 06 03:07 AM Steven Hansen wrote:

    > with the unemployment rate expressed as a percentage of the workforce
    > at the second highest level since WW2, how do you square this with
    > the graph you posted.
    > we need to all realize that the data is no longer correlating and
    > it should be instinctive that an analyst would immediately recognize
    > when data is not giving you the correct answer.
    Jul 6, 2009. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Official Unemployment Numbers Understate the Problem [View article]
    Disregard my comment above. I see a decimal point where before I saw a comma.
    Jul 5, 2009. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Official Unemployment Numbers Understate the Problem [View article]
    Re: "This (14.1 million jobs gained) is close to the expected number 15.2 million (95% of 15.974), but is still 1.1 million short."

    95% of 15,974 is 15,175, not 15,200,000, so strike that mystery (and the entire discussion in the paragraph).

    And although the statistics are interesting, and represents a lot of work on your part, there isn't anything surprising in your conclusions nor anything not well known. I apologize for being negative, but I did spend an inordinate amount of time digesting your analysis in addition to the above mentioned correction.
    Jul 4, 2009. 10:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worst Housing Number in Decades: What Is the Wall Street Media Smoking? [View article]
    Seasonally adjusted, Lake Erie never freezes.
    Jun 17, 2009. 11:29 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Another Day of Bad Reporting [View article]
    "May Retail Sales rose 0.5% from April to $340B, but were down 9.6% vs. a year ago, in line with consensus estimates. April's sales were revised to -0.4% from -0.2%." - Wall Street Breakfast

    So without the -0.2% April revision, sales excluding gasoline would have been flat. How convenient.
    Jun 12, 2009. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case Against Raising the Capital Gains Tax Rate [View article]
    It brings to mind this quote:

    "If you don't want a problem with taxes, just ride the stock down. No problem with taxes then!!"
    - Bob Brinker
    May 27, 2009. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday's Closing Update [View article]
    Thanks guys, I'm following this now at:

    The same questions raised and discussed.

    May 12, 2009. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday's Closing Update [View article]
    Well, I don't know who gave me the thumbs down for my previous post and I guess it doesn't matter, but I really do want to know why this makes financial sense.

    Rather than concentrating on their core business which appears to be quite profitable, Microsoft now seems as if managing the huge stockpile of cash is coming to the forefront in some obscure way.

    And rather than increasing their dividend to shareholders currently at 2.7%, they will be paying interest to bondholders which I think most likely will be greater than 2.7%

    Intelligent replies appreciated.
    May 11, 2009. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday's Closing Update [View article]
    The insanity continues. Microsoft has $25 billion in cash and until they raised $2 billion last year they had 0 debt. Now they want to raise $3.75 in a bond offering?

    If they aren't making more in interest or dividends on the cash than the interest they will pay on the bonds, someone enlighten me as to how this makes sense.

    May 11, 2009. 09:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Social Security: Bankrupt System Will Impact Markets Sooner than Expected [View article]
    Gee, first you say your "savings and 401K's have been ravaged", then you advocate "individual, self-directed retirement accounts" as being a better alternative to SS.

    On May 01 12:57 PM optionsgirl wrote:

    > Glad you are young enough to build up your portfolio and not rely
    > on the govt. For those of us born during WW2 and for the older boomers,
    > while our savings and 401K's have been ravaged, we have been paying
    > into ss and medicare at max rates most of our working lives. For
    > some of us, we are beyond our working lives. What you are seeing
    > is the ultimate impoverishment of the middle class.
    > If you care about this country and your future, you should be lobbying
    > for individual, self-directed retirement accounts within current
    > programs, or better yet, the end of SS and Medicare-- if you could
    > just keep your own money and be responsible for how it is spent or
    > invested, your future would be brighter.
    May 2, 2009. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Manufacturing: More Output with Fewer Workers [View article]
    And as productivity increases, more and more jobs will be lost. Do you think that "this" trend is desirable? I'm not a luddite, but ...

    Anyway, I seem to miss the point you are trying to make.
    Apr 26, 2009. 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will This Crisis Lead to? [View article]
    Um, methinks that Bernanke preceded Obama.

    On Apr 22 09:43 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

    > and by extension Obama's choice of Bernanke and
    > Geithner is almost certainly better than the team the other guy would have installed.
    Apr 22, 2009. 02:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Reasonable Case for Guarded Optimism [View article]
    While I appreciate your optimism, none of the "four fiscal sources (cost of living adjustments, one-off payment, reduction in withholding taxes, and tax refunds)" add up to much.

    Cost of living adjustments, while seeming generous, will be or have already been offset by the real increase in the cost of living."

    If I were to donate my "one-off payment' to one of the unemployed, it might help a family to survive one more week.

    Reduction in withholding taxes mean nothing to the unemployed.

    Tax refunds are pretty much non-existent for the half of the population that pay so little or no taxes. And for those who do receive refunds, I'd say that money has already been budgeted. Not a windfall but more like a planned income, sort of.

    All in all, not much of an economy booster and not very encouraging from an investment point of view.
    Apr 12, 2009. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF Expected to Increase Value of Toxic Assets to $3.1 Trillion [View article]
    The IMF says that toxic debt may reach $4 trillion.

    The U.S. government alone is committing over $12 trillion in one way or another to address the toxic debt problem, not to mention other countries.

    Anyone know why the discrepancy?
    Apr 7, 2009. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Recovery Here? [View article]
    I think you may have hit the nail on the head.

    You said: "While there is still enough negative news abounding in the markets, there are feint signs of stability as evidenced by the PMI, CPMI and IP."

    One can assume you meant "faint" (weak or slight)

    But "feint" (deceptive) is probably closer to the truth.

    Apr 2, 2009. 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment