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DavyJ

DavyJ
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  • A Reasonable Case for Guarded Optimism [View article]
    While I appreciate your optimism, none of the "four fiscal sources (cost of living adjustments, one-off payment, reduction in withholding taxes, and tax refunds)" add up to much.

    Cost of living adjustments, while seeming generous, will be or have already been offset by the real increase in the cost of living."

    If I were to donate my "one-off payment' to one of the unemployed, it might help a family to survive one more week.

    Reduction in withholding taxes mean nothing to the unemployed.

    Tax refunds are pretty much non-existent for the half of the population that pay so little or no taxes. And for those who do receive refunds, I'd say that money has already been budgeted. Not a windfall but more like a planned income, sort of.

    All in all, not much of an economy booster and not very encouraging from an investment point of view.
    Apr 12, 2009. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF Expected to Increase Value of Toxic Assets to $3.1 Trillion [View article]
    The IMF says that toxic debt may reach $4 trillion.

    The U.S. government alone is committing over $12 trillion in one way or another to address the toxic debt problem, not to mention other countries.

    Anyone know why the discrepancy?
    Apr 7, 2009. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Recovery Here? [View article]
    I think you may have hit the nail on the head.

    You said: "While there is still enough negative news abounding in the markets, there are feint signs of stability as evidenced by the PMI, CPMI and IP."

    One can assume you meant "faint" (weak or slight)

    But "feint" (deceptive) is probably closer to the truth.

    Apr 2, 2009. 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner's Plan for Bad Assets: Part of a Master Program [View article]
    As if Social Security didn't have enough trouble, we get suggestions like this:

    "Galbraith proposes a payroll tax holiday: "This is a particularly potent suggestion, because it is large and immediate," and puts income in the pockets of working families, he says. For me a key to recession-busting as it also is for development aid to poor developing countries, how to productively put money into the pockets of the poor, including poor pensioners especially, who all have the virtue that they spend what they get."

    Well read this news from yesterday's Market Currents:

    "Monday, March 30, 2009 12:40 PM
    This While Americans were busy yelling about outrageous bonus payments and federal bailouts, the Social Security surplus quietly slipped away."

    www.bloomberg.com/apps...
    Mar 31, 2009. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    We need "thumbs up" and "thumbs down" buttons for articles as we have for comments. You can't rely on a article being on the most read list as often the title will lead you astray and even though you didn't like the article, just by reading it you are endorsing it. Complimentary comments don't help since they aren't available until you have committed to read the article.

    In particular, this article comes to mind:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    By the way, I looked for a more appropriate place for suggestions didn't readily find one.
    Mar 27, 2009. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed, Treasury Propose the Dissolution of Capitalism [View article]
    Good article. Thumbs up!
    Mar 27, 2009. 11:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When America Ruled the World (Part 2) [View article]
    James,

    You said: "The English Parliament reacted to the crisis exactly the way our current clueless bunch of moron Congressmen are reacting to the AIG debacle. The estates of the directors of the South Sea Company were confiscated and used to relieve the suffering of the victims, and the stock of the South Sea Company was divided between the Bank of England and East India Company."

    Huh! What am I missing? I can't seem to make the connection.

    Mar 25, 2009. 08:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When America Ruled the World (Part 2) [View article]
    James,

    I imagined all that you asked me to, and all that I could imagine afterwards was more violence then you can imagine.
    Mar 25, 2009. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sideline Cash Headed Back into Stocks? [View article]
    I just don't understand it. Every time I put my sidelined money into the market, someone on the other side of the trade takes that money out of the market and puts it on the sideline. So there seems to be no change.

    One of life's mysteries, I guess.
    Mar 23, 2009. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not a Day to Dive Back In [View article]
    By the way, how do you know that "Most of the buying so far has been due to short covering"?
    Mar 15, 2009. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did the Market Show Capitulation? Not Exactly [View article]
    To paraphrase the movie title, what if they gave a capitulation party and no one came?

    Mar 15, 2009. 08:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not a Day to Dive Back In [View article]
    Re: "As someone just said on CNBC, no one becomes rich by buying on the 4th up day!"

    So is the trick to buy on down days? There has been no shortage of them this year.



    Mar 15, 2009. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor Capitulation: What to Watch Now [View article]
    Can I get a refund on my textbook if the market doesn't perform like the book says?
    Mar 11, 2009. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grand Illusion: The Federal Reserve (Part 3) [View article]
    I'm a little skeptical of the numbers published by shadowstats.com. According to their calculations, consumer inflation has increased 160% since 1995 (eyeballing the chart you published). With the exception of house prices and maybe medical costs, I can't think of a single category that even comes close to that number.

    We know what has happened to house prices, and by the way, rents didn't follow house prices nor did the cost of ownership if you already owned a house.

    And much of the increase in medical costs has to do with improved diagnostic technology and it's related costs. I.e., bump you head and you end up with a multi-thousand dollar CAT scan. But it's not mandatory that you get the CAT scan that wasn't available not so long ago.

    Not even transportation costs, to round out the top three household expenditures, have increased that much (160%).

    This is not to say that there is no price inflation, only that I disagree with their numbers.
    Mar 10, 2009. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Grand Illusion: The Federal Reserve (Part 3) [View article]
    James, for future reference when calculating percentages, the equation is (x/y-1) x 100.

    So 211.1/10.0 - 1 equals 20.11 or 2,011%.
    Maybe not much difference from your 2,111%

    But 211.1/30.9 -1 equals 5.83 or 583%.
    That's a difference 100% from your 683%.

    And if in some future article you want to show that something has doubled, it will be 200/100-1 or a 100% increase not 200% which would be a tremendous difference.

    Still maybe the "average American", or "Regular Joe", wouldn't catch the mistake.
    Mar 10, 2009. 07:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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