Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View DavyJ's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Most Dangerous Assumption About Stocks And GDP [View article]

    And look at the period from 1968 to 1982. Fourteen years of growing GDP and a volatile but stagnant stock market.

    I'd say that 14 years is a reasonably long time to prove that the inverse is also true.
    Aug 12, 2013. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Of The Day: Caterpillar [View article]
    Re: "This suggests that analysts are in nearly complete agreement regarding the company's bearish outlook for both the near term and the longer term."

    No, this suggests that analysts don't do analysis but rely on headlines and then follow the crowd. Gee, I could do that too.
    Jul 29, 2013. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold may be going down on paper, but the physical market is still in high demand. Just ask Rick Harrison, co-owner of the Gold & Silver Pawn Shop and a co-star of the reality series "Pawn Stars." "I'm having a real difficult time right now getting physical metal," Harrison says. "It's the crazy world of gold and silver: Sometimes the paper market is going down but you can't find actual physical items." [View news story]
    I recall reading that the U.S. mint only uses gold and silver that is certified of U.S. origin.

    I'm not a gold bug but if I were, I would certainly want to know as that would undoubtedly affect the value of U.S. coins in the future.

    How's the price of foreign coins?
    Jun 28, 2013. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Fed Directly Subsidizes Corporate Profits And Why The Game Is Over [View article]
    In 2011, Walmart had $446.95 billion in revenues.

    In 2011, SNAP expenditures were $78 billion.

    That's not even 18% of Walmart's revenues. And not all food stamps are spent at Walmart.

    Exaggerate a little here, a little there, and soon you have some big number. Repeat it often enough, and soon the people will believe it.
    May 24, 2013. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Frequency Trading: Harmful Or Helpful? [View article]
    Well I have personally profited from HFT. Since I only use limit orders placed in round number of cents, the few times I bought at a fraction of a cent lower than I anticipated, or sold at a fraction of a cent higher I was pleasantly surprised. All told over the years, I believe I'm up almost a penny but it's not worth my time to do the actual calculations.

    And of course, there are the times when I bought more than a fraction of a cent lower and vice versa when selling.
    May 22, 2013. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The European investigation (I, II) into oil benchmark pricing raises rarely voiced questions about the appropriate way to set prices. FT notes that Platts' reporters cover 400+ wholesale energy prices everyday and the information available to them is limited to what commodities houses and Big Oil are willing to disclose. The process is complicated by the fact that myriad factors ranging from small discrepancies in quality to the type of hull on transport tankers, make the process inherently subjective. Nevertheless, the ordeal looks quite a bit like the Libor and ISDAFIX probes: a benchmark to which trillions of dollars of assets are tied is determined by key players away from the public eye. [View news story]
    For an excellent article on oil pricing, see this one by Kyle Spencer on November 2, 2012.
    May 18, 2013. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Romanian Teenager Wins Big for Low-Cost, Self-Driving Car Innovation [View article]
    No Browns, Joneses, or Smiths to be seen.
    May 17, 2013. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Sleeping Hare Win? [View article]
    Put the blame on Microsoft. The only reason I haven't updated my desktop computer from XP is because I have several DOS programs that I dearly love and use each and every every day that won't run on Windows 7 or 8 without a software addition/upgrade to W7 or W8 which is more expensive than the original program's cost.

    So in the meantime, I use my laptop for all the routine light work, and my desktop for the DOS programs and activities that are better suited for a large screen and full size keyboard. And the XP desktop works as an adequate server.

    Could I live without the DOS programs? Of course. Would I spend money to lose their functionality? Not a chance. Sorry Microsoft.

    May 15, 2013. 08:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Experiment That Is Being Carried Out In Japan [View article]
    One thing that continues to escape me is that no one ever mentions how the general population if Japan is faring after more than 20 years of deflation.

    We constantly hear of the high rate of unemployment in southern Europe, the deficits there, this crisis, that crisis, and how the people are suffering, the list goes on.

    But Japan? GDP not growing, or at least not growing up to economist's expectations, is such a horror. The evils of deflation abound and nothing seems to work!

    So someone tell me. How are the Japanese people coping after twenty-some years?
    May 14, 2013. 08:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Asset Bubble: The Difference Is... [View article]
    I don't know why some focus on quarter over quarter comparisons as I consider them pretty much useless. You wouldn't use quarter over quarter comparisons for temperature or weather would you?

    For the year ending April 30, 2012, the DJIA earnings per share trailing 12 months were $118.44 and the then current year to date were $139.77 with P/Es of 14.74 and 12.49 respectively.

    For the year ending April 30, 2013, the DJIA earnings per share trailing 12 months were 122.87 and the now current year to date were $144.80 with P/Es of 15.73 and 13.35 respectively.

    That relates to a TTM 3.74% gain and 3.59%. Not great, but certainly not declining and not an asset bubble.

    All calculations based on data from Yahoo Finance.
    May 14, 2013. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Busting Another False Myth [View article]

    I really appreciate your hard work and insight.

    But, I cringe every time I see phrases like:
    “Oh, and don't forget that Intel's transistors are much smaller than the competitions' ...”
    “Oh, and TSMC's "16nm" is really 16nm FinFETs ...”

    as it it's an afterthought. That phraseology seems to be in vogue nowadays but why not just leave off the "Oh," since we all know it's not an afterthought, just the current fad in Internet speak.

    And did I mention, I really appreciate your hard work and insight?
    May 11, 2013. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways The Dow Is Lying - What Does It Mean? [View article]
    I don't understand your analogy.

    Some people, in order to put on a negative spin, like to rewrite history by adjusting numbers to reflect inflation, reflect the price of gold, allow for currency fluctuations if they live in a foreign country, the list goes on.

    I disagree with that philosophy though it should be recognized that inflation takes it's toll on any asset, including gold if you're inclined to invest in gold. Maybe the article should have been titled "3 ways gold is lying".

    But the point of my post was that the "3 ways the dow is lying" has absolutely nothing to do with the Dow, the S&P500, gold, Apple stock, or my car.
    May 3, 2013. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Ways The Dow Is Lying - What Does It Mean? [View article]
    The DJIA is not lying. It shows the price of the 30 stocks compared to some previous point in time. Nothing more, nothing less.

    Don't blame inflation on the "Dow". It has nothing to do with it.

    Don't blame the unemployment rate on the "Dow". It has nothing to do with it.

    Don't blame the employment/population ratio on the "Dow". It has nothing to do with it.

    More and more I'm disappointed with the quality and content of articles posted on Seeking Alpha.

    The "Dow" does an excellent job for what it was designed to do. Trying to use a hammer when a screwdriver is required is a fault of the user, not the tool.
    May 2, 2013. 07:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Food Stamps: The Most Accurate Economic Indicator [View article]
    You may be right. Since March 2009 the number of recipients on food stamps has pretty much risen in lockstep with the markets.

    Now it looks to me like the increase of recipients has started to level off.

    Should the number of recipients start to decline, maybe the markets will too.

    Or did I misunderstand your article?
    Apr 25, 2013. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Demand Lifts Gold Prices, U.S. Mint Suspends Sales [View article]
    One has to ask: Is it a production problem or a supply problem?

    There seems to be more supply than demand since the price of gold had declined so much. I'd say it may be a production problem or a balancing of inventories.
    Apr 24, 2013. 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment