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  • U.S. crude sinks 7.7% to $52.53 in worst day since April  [View news story]
    Commodity traders trade. Sometimes they win, sometimes the lose. Lately it seems they have lost touch with reality.

    Just for fun, remember Amaranth Advisors, among others, back in 2006.

    As long as I NEVER sell and the oil majors' dividends aren't completely cut, I have free gasoline from the dividends for the rest of my life. These ups and downs, while discouraging on a daily basis, even out over the long run. CVX, XOM, etc. will outlive me.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks hiking prices for coffee, other drinks  [View news story]
    Well they had to compensate for the rise in minimum wage increases and college tuition benefits somehow.

    You didn't think those benevolent did you?
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Shiller P/E Wrong About Valuations?  [View article]
    Well if you're going to average earnings over ten years, then it seems to reason that you should average prices over ten years.

    The current DJIA ten year price average is approximately 13,500. Modified CAPE PE ~20.5.

    The current S&P 500 ten year average is approximately 1,480. Modified CAPE PE ~ 19.2.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The CAPE Graph Really Shows: No, It's Not A Bubble  [View article]
    I never understood how one could use a ten year moving average of earnings to compute a PE using the current stock price. A reasonable person would use the ten year average of stock prices.

    But, then again, the library is full of economic books (among others) I don't understand.
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Adding Apple To The DJIA Makes It A Good Investment  [View article]

    Will anyone ever present a convincing argument that a move in the heaviest weighted component of the SPY (right now Apple) should exert almost four hundred times the effect of a move in the lightest weighted (right now Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.).

    The top 10 Holdings comprise 17.35% of Total Assets.

    The top 50 components of the SPY have roughly the same weight as the bottom 450 components. How is that rational?
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAPE Fear: Should We Brace For Below Average Returns?  [View article]
    I admit to being a little slow, but if you are going to average the earnings over 10 years, wouldn't it be logical to average the index over 10 years?

    December 2014
    2058.90 Close
    $122.74 Earnings
    1,425.00 S&P 10 year moving average (eyeballed from bigcharts)
    11.61 10 year averaged PE
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things could get interesting overnight  [View news story]
    And software only costs the price of a CD to distribute it on.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Jones Today Shows Warning Signs  [View article]
    Re: "The best analogy I've heard for bubbles and why they ultimately burst is the example of dropping grains of sand that build a mound. It gets steeper and steeper until one grain of sand causes an avalanche."

    But the avalanche doesn't destroy the mound. It builds a new base and additional grains of sand build the mound to new heights. Just like the stock market and inflation. Temporary setbacks, then on to new highs.
    Oct 9, 2014. 08:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trying To Follow The Dow  [View article]
    Just another example of selling call options to increase income doesn't work in an up market. Stocks get called away and the seller has to buy back at a higher price than the strike plus the premium received.
    Aug 24, 2014. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Religion Of Doom And Gloom  [View article]
    Just a quick peruse of your website doesn't seem to have an archive of your series of articles entitled "The Perfect Financial Storm - Part 1 - 10" which were the epitome of "doom-and-gloom "financial-tainment" industry".

    The logic in that series cost me dearly. Glad to see that you have been born again.

    But where are the archives?
    Aug 16, 2014. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Investors About To Get Fleeced Again  [View article]
    It's all in the interpretation of the chart. The way I see it is that at market bottoms retail investors having a lot of cash start putting that cash to work, and continue to do so all the way up. So at the top they are naturally heavily in stocks and not cash. Then as the market starts falling, they sell stocks and build cash and the cycle repeats again. It's not like they went to cash all at once at the bottom or suddenly bought stocks at the top. T'was a gradual process according to the chart. As I said, it's all in the interpretation.

    On the other hand, there were, and still are, many articles on Seeking Alpha written by semi-professionals that stressed they were going to cash all during the rise from the lows of 2009, the most hated bull market of all time. A good many commenters agreed.
    Aug 11, 2014. 12:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reasons Why Warren Buffett Is Rich!  [View article]
    Re: "I am not saying there is anything wrong with this if money is earned honestly, all I am saying is that extravagant spending today takes it away from your wealth, as I will demonstrate shortly. These are the reasons why some of the richest today in society will never attain the wealth equal to Warren Buffett's not because they are not smart, but because they under estimate the future value of present spending."

    1. What is the point of attaining wealth if you don't use some of it to enjoy life? If attaining wealth is the only thing that you enjoy, then you don't have much of a life.

    2. If I personally don't attain the wealth equal to Warren Buffett's, it's not that I underestimate the future value of present spending, it's that I chose to do something else with my life. Maybe I just don't care. Or maybe I want to enjoy my beach house in California.

    3. When is enough enough?
    Aug 7, 2014. 09:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Need To Know About Rising Interest Rates  [View article]
    Re: "Inflation=increase in supply of money/credit."

    That's the economic definition. Then there is the common definition of price inflation, an increase in the price level of goods and services, which was clearly the definition used in the article. "Price inflation" is generally shortened to "inflation" as in "adjusted for inflation ...".

    One only has to look at the number of articles that start with "Adjusted for Inflation" to know that inflation simply is indeed happening.
    Jul 11, 2014. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What You Need To Know About Rising Interest Rates  [View article]
    Re: "As far as inflation goes... it simply isn't happening, either".

    Actually it is in a subtle way. Prior to 2000, millionaires were considered rich. Now we commonly talk about billionaires.

    Prior to 2008, the public debt was measured in billions. Now we commonly talk about trillions. And targeting a low trillion deficit is a good thing.

    We talk about raising the minimum wage by 50% in two or three years.

    How many articles have you seen about how much more does one need to retire comfortably compared to just 10 years ago?

    What about ...?
    Jul 10, 2014. 09:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hetty Green: The Grandmother Of Value Investing  [View article]

    Well if they only bought Polaroid, Eastman Kodak and Digital Equipment and never bought Apple, Microsoft, or any of the Dow Industrials, you may have a point.

    But what if you had only bought 100 shares of every stock you have ever owned and never sold. I sure wish I would have done that. I've bought a bunch of losers, but I have sold more winners much to my regret.
    Jun 29, 2014. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment