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DavyJ

DavyJ
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  • Market Seasonality Revisited [View article]
    Re: "That's because in years when the market makes more gains in the unfavorable season when a seasonal investor is out, the seasonal investor doesn't suffer a loss, but merely misses out on additional gains."

    Well if you sold 100 shares in May and received x dollars and now want to buy back in November after missing out on additional gains, your x dollars won't buy as many shares. You have less shares than before, so I call that a loss.
    Oct 7 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This 'Tech' ETF Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
    When I was reading your article, I kept saying "well duh" until I got to the last two paragraphs.

    Two thumbs up! Excellent idea.
    Oct 6 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report: Conspiracy, Reality, And A Nation Of Part Time Workers [View article]
    How about the DavyJ calculation of jobs?

    1. Number of people paying FICA last month.
    2. Total amount of FICA reported last month.
    3. Year over year comparison only. No seasonal adjustments allowed.

    Two numbers, too simple, too many theorists out of a job!
    Oct 6 09:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How My Family And I Overcame Obstacles To Be Better Off Than 4 Years Ago [View article]
    Total net worth I'm down a few percent.

    Net income (retired) I'm up a few percent.

    Optimistically I'm up more than a few percent.

    Just bought a new car. Still living within my budget.

    I enjoyed your article. Things aren't all bad for many (the majority?) of us.
    Oct 1 09:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials; Devastating Your Dividend Growth Portfolio Since 2009 [View article]
    To quash any accusations of cherry picking before they are posted, the DJIA had three bank stocks at the beginning 2008. BAC was added in February 2008 bringing the total to four. AXP, BAC, C, and JPM. As we know C (Citigroup) was removed in 2009 so there are still three. Maybe we should also include 1/2 of GE just to be complete. And GE did cut their dividend.

    Dividends for the SPDR DIA were:
    2008 $2.93
    2009 $2.81
    2010 $2.77
    2011 $2.97
    2012 $2.11 through August. $3.14 trailing 12 months.

    How's that for an unbiased actual example?
    Sep 9 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Closest Thing To Guaranteed - My 'Non-Dirty' Dozen [View article]
    Re: "The CAT web site historical price lookup shows CAT closing at $19.03 on Sept 7 2000."

    Notice the "Split Adjustment Factor" and "Actual Price".

    Closing Price $19.03
    Volume 4,777,600
    Split Adjustment Factor 2.0000:1
    Open $19.50
    Day's High $19.53
    Day's Low $19.03
    Actual Price $38.06
    Date Requested 09/07/00
    Sep 9 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Closest Thing To Guaranteed - My 'Non-Dirty' Dozen [View article]
    Most charts I've seen are adjusted for dividends, in addition to stock splits. Yahoo makes this clear in their historical data page.

    http://yhoo.it/S0kD7K

    Still don't believe it, check out Caterpillar's own web page.

    http://bit.ly/Qt2eWj

    Sep 9 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Closest Thing To Guaranteed - My 'Non-Dirty' Dozen [View article]
    Oops! The share price gain in your table DOES include dividends. The actual closing price of CAT on September 7, 2000 was $38.06. $14.16 was the closing price adjusted for dividends and the split in 2005. So the share price gain including the split but not dividends was 363%, not 522% as in your table.

    Still that amounts to a nice 7.245% compounded annually excluding dividends. I don't normally reinvest dividends in the same stock.
    Sep 8 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Chart Republicans Do Not Want You To See [View article]
    The chart is missing all of the second terms of a sitting president. Without that, the chart is meaningless since if Obama wins a second term, that is what the country will be faced with. And that is what investors will have to make decisions on.
    Sep 7 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keeping Your Dividend Growth Options Open [View article]
    Or you could have invested in Research in Motion. The outlook was just as bright in 2003. And 2004, and 2005, and 2006, and 2007, and 2008.

    Full disclosure. I actually lost money on AAPL. I never invested in RIMM.
    Aug 29 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi Media Statement on Citigroup Common Stock Class Action Suit [View article]
    So the members of the class action suit get the equivalent of a special dividend at the expense of (penalty to) the rest of the shareholders. Where’s the justice in that?

    It seems to me that management should be the ones penalized.
    Aug 29 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The debate about whether or not raising taxes on the rich would increase government revenue, is "beside the point," writes John Carney on CNBC. The real reason to hike taxes is to fight inflation, but if and when it exists, the measure possibly wouldn't cure that problem either. "The proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy just don’t add up," Carney writes. [View news story]
    Make each citizen dig according to the amount of water used.
    Aug 26 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Lose Money While Waiting For Market Plunge [View article]
    I'll bet that Nassim Talib regrets to having ever introduced "black swan" to the world of investing. Never suspected that there were so many.
    Aug 24 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 20,000 And The Coming Economic Collapse: Forecasts Wildly At Odds, Or Are They? [View article]
    "Dow at 20,000 within five years."

    That's easy. From 13,000 at 9% per year compounded equals 20,002. Not at all unreasonable.
    Aug 4 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Sees Dumb People [View article]
    Re: "The market is taking a much more practical approach and is trending lower, just not in big enough chunks to alarm the general public."

    Huh? It looks to me that it's been up quite a bit in the last 8 weeks. And it's higher than it was one year ago, and two years ago, and three years ago.

    I'll pass on buying your book.
    Jul 18 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
402 Comments
572 Likes