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  • The Historical P/E Of The S&P 500 May No Longer Apply [View article]

    In some ways, things were actually better in the old days. I bought my first mutual fund in 1964. They were just coming into vogue in the late 50’s, early 60’s.

    I bought my first individual stock in 1968. At that time brokers had S&P reports in loose leaf binders (individual companies were updated as new information became available, thus the loose leafs). All I had to do was call my broker and say I was interested in various companies and he would send those pages to me.

    There was Value Line which normally offered trial subscriptions at reduced rates. We would rotate trials amoung our friends so that we had reasonably continuous reports and they were also available in most libraries along with the aforementioned S&P reports. And then there buy lists published by brokers as they are today.

    Additionally there were numerous stock selection subscription services available. A common thing in the 70’s was for $5 or $10 you could get the latest issue of 5 or 10 of those services through an intermediary. I must have sampled two dozen or so before making a commitment. Not to mention Baron’s and the WSJ were available by subscription or in the libraries.

    Back then, brokerage houses used to have public areas for their customers with the real time ticker displayed in lights. Maybe ten or twenty movie theater style seats where you could just sit and watch the ticker and converse with your fellow players. Much better than sitting alone at home in front of your computer posting on sites like SA. A few trading stations were also available if you were active and wanted to day trade. A pleasant way to spend a few hours or even the whole day if your work schedule allowed. Minimum commissions were $6.00.

    Ah, those were the days.
    Oct 4, 2015. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Oil Winners: Exxon Mobil Corporation & Chevron Corporation [View article]
    I don't recall Chevron selling any more assets to raise cash like they did last quarter. Is this a good sign?
    Sep 28, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Failure Of Shiller's CAPE Shows About Stock Picking [View article]
    Re: "This putative best predictor is, of course, Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earning (CAPE) ratio, namely the current price of the S&P 500 divided by a moving 10-year earnings average, adjusted for inflation."

    I've asked this question several times before but have never received a satisfactory answer.

    If you are averaging the 10-year earnings, shouldn't you also be averaging the 10-year price? As long as the price is rising the average of the earnings will always lag. Just as the average of the price always lags the current price in a rising market. When the market is falling, the average price always lags the current price.
    Sep 22, 2015. 10:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PayPal: Should You Buy This Growth Machine? [View article]
    I'm not sure how PayPal makes ALL of their money. Since 2004 I have used PayPal using only a credit card. Twice in the past they tried to coerce me into linking my bank account and I refused. Some time later they relented and allowed me to make purchases. I continued with only my credit card for years. Then this year, they insisted I add a second credit card to complete transactions. I refused so I couldn't make the purchase. As of now, I still can't.

    I don't know about others but I refuse to allow direct access to my bank account by PayPal. I understand that credit card companies charge a percentage of the sale so who pays that? PayPal passes that on to the seller?

    I would like the convenience of PayPal but am a stubborn fool.

    Anyone else have similar problems?
    Sep 22, 2015. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Bullard: Why I argued against the Fed rate hold [View news story]
    On the other hand, raising rates would be a form of stimulus.

    For the fence sitters deciding whether to buy a new house, a new car, or anything else that would be financed over a long period of time, a trend in interest rates back to a more normal rate should spur them to act now and lock in a low rate.

    Just a thought.
    Sep 20, 2015. 02:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Apple's Publicity Events Hurting The Stock Price? A Statistical Study [View article]
    Well I don't know anything about p-values and t-tests, but wouldn't a simple graph of the average percentage change over the 60 day period have been sufficient.

    Not difficult at all using a spreadsheet with graphing capabilities. One would need to know the actual dates studied though, which weren't provided.
    Sep 8, 2015. 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Best Tasting Bear Ever? [View article]
    Regarding Cook's email to Cramer; is this normal for a CEO to contact Cramer on his own? Seems strange to me. What with all the SPAM emails I see with almost correct Internet addresses, it could be some pulled a fast one on Cramer.

    There's nothing on Apple's website that would provide confirmation of such an important release.

    Just my thoughts.
    Aug 24, 2015. 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Vs. Shale - A Game Of Chicken! [View article]
    The first part was partly in jest.

    The second part addressed the statement preceding the chart "You can't have too many of those, or you will end up like Greece." was not.

    None of the countries on the chart are members of the Euro so the comparison to Greece is not valid. They can print their currencies to oblivion to satisfy their commitments. In the long run though, I guess the end result would be the same.

    I just don't like the acceptance of an opinion (this being the chart) being repeated over and over as a fact. The author even introduced the chart as "familiar" indicating that it was not an original thought.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Vs. Shale - A Game Of Chicken! [View article]
    Noticeably missing from the breakeven chart is the U.S. What price would the U.S. need to balance the budget?

    Surely some of the countries listed have other sources of income than oil.
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Bearish Signal In Dow Jones Industrials [View article]
    For the DJIA, last week looks pretty much the same pattern as the fourth week in January.

    This week start looks like it may be the same as the first week of February.

    Why wasn't the fourth week in January marked as a "Bearish Week"? Hindsight?
    Aug 10, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Payout Ratios Predicted The Last 2 Recessions And Best Buying Opportunities [View article]
    It seems to me that you use the term "investor" when you mean "speculator". To suggest that in investor take "a more passive role in 2005 through 2007" based upon the payout ratio is total speculation, not investing.

    And to suggest that the "investor" would have the foresight to become aggressive after payout ratios have begun to normalize is again pure speculation.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple, Google, Facebook, Alibaba Or American Express Will Acquire PayPal [View article]
    I don't know about others but I refuse to allow direct access to my bank account by PayPal. From time to time they allow me to use PayPal with only one credit card. Then some time later they insist I add a second credit to complete a transaction though they say nothing about the link to my bank account. I refuse to add another credit card or link to my bank account and they don't allow me to complete the purchase. Then after some time they do allow me to use their service for a year or so. Then the cycle repeats.

    Not a way to run a railroad as they say.
    Jul 22, 2015. 08:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Shiller P/E Wrong About Valuations? [View article]
    See my post above. CAPE averages the earnings over ten years but then computes the ratio using a single day's price. Like you said "It makes no sense."
    Jul 7, 2015. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. crude sinks 7.7% to $52.53 in worst day since April [View news story]
    Commodity traders trade. Sometimes they win, sometimes the lose. Lately it seems they have lost touch with reality.

    Just for fun, remember Amaranth Advisors, among others, back in 2006.

    As long as I NEVER sell and the oil majors' dividends aren't completely cut, I have free gasoline from the dividends for the rest of my life. These ups and downs, while discouraging on a daily basis, even out over the long run. CVX, XOM, etc. will outlive me.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks hiking prices for coffee, other drinks [View news story]
    Well they had to compensate for the rise in minimum wage increases and college tuition benefits somehow.

    You didn't think those benevolent did you?
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment