Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View DavyJ's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF Is Better Than Social Security [View article]
    Reference my post above. The contributions after 40 years should have been $92,759 and $185,518. I was playing around with the spreadsheet to see what would have been after 50 years and inadvertently posted those numbers.

    Sorry if I confused anyone who decided to check my calculations.
    Nov 26, 2015. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF Is Better Than Social Security [View article]

    Re: "half a million into dividend growth champions over 40 years".

    Well I assume your math is correct, but your assumptions are not. For someone who started contributing to SS 40 years ago AND paid the maximum per the payroll cap, that someone would have only contributed $157,543.

    Even allowing for employer contributions of an equal amount the total would be $315,086. Finding an employer generous enough to match 100% of an employees contribution to a 401K plan containing SCHD would be tough. My employer only matched 3% of my salary no matter the percentage I set aside.

    In making comparisons of this type, I find it very useful to step back and see if the initial assumptions are reasonable.

    As you can see via the below links, the maximum contribution in 1965 was but $174.

    Re: "(assuming equal investments each year)".

    I calculate the equal investment would be $12,500 per year. Way out of a average persons ability in 1965. Just for fun, why not run the numbers using the actual payroll tax numbers and your 7% compounding?
    Nov 26, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF Is Better Than Social Security [View article]

    Thanks for setting the issue straight. I took a look at my contributions of working life and doubled the amount to account for my employer's contributions and came up with less than $250,000. Just for fun, I calculated how much I would have contributed had I worked until age 75 and still it would have been less than $300,000.

    It really irritates me when people just throw out numbers without any thought behind it because of their biases.

    In 1954, the cap on earnings was $3,600. The cap didn't reach $10,000 until 1973.
    Nov 25, 2015. 02:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 4% Dividend Yield Portfolio: A Postmortem After One Year [View article]
    Not to be a spoil-sport but having a goal of a 50% increase in dividends ($4000 to $6000) over a 10 year span sets the bar quite low at a 4.15% cumulative gain. Most DGI fans shoot for much higher.

    In November 2005, DIA paid $2.17 trailing 12 month dividends. This year it's $4.08, an 88% increase in dividends.
    Nov 25, 2015. 12:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's call: Chinese iPhone sales, forex, iPad, Android switching discussed [View news story]
    In front of every silver lining there is a dark cloud. Less than 50% of Chinese iPhone buyers were repeat buyers. :)
    Oct 27, 2015. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Life (And Death) Of A Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]

    I don't mean to speak for Buyandhold 2012, but for the small percentage (or even if it was a larger percentage) of stocks that bit the dust, the most that one would have lost is 100% of the original investment and considering dividends may have been profitable in the long run.

    On the other hand, never selling ever means that the winners that increased by thousands of percent would have made those loses miniscule in comparison. Who would care if a fraction of one percent of one's portfolio went to zero?

    I wish I had that foresight when I started chasing alpha decades ago.
    Oct 12, 2015. 09:16 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Historical P/E Of The S&P 500 May No Longer Apply [View article]

    In some ways, things were actually better in the old days. I bought my first mutual fund in 1964. They were just coming into vogue in the late 50’s, early 60’s.

    I bought my first individual stock in 1968. At that time brokers had S&P reports in loose leaf binders (individual companies were updated as new information became available, thus the loose leafs). All I had to do was call my broker and say I was interested in various companies and he would send those pages to me.

    There was Value Line which normally offered trial subscriptions at reduced rates. We would rotate trials amoung our friends so that we had reasonably continuous reports and they were also available in most libraries along with the aforementioned S&P reports. And then there buy lists published by brokers as they are today.

    Additionally there were numerous stock selection subscription services available. A common thing in the 70’s was for $5 or $10 you could get the latest issue of 5 or 10 of those services through an intermediary. I must have sampled two dozen or so before making a commitment. Not to mention Baron’s and the WSJ were available by subscription or in the libraries.

    Back then, brokerage houses used to have public areas for their customers with the real time ticker displayed in lights. Maybe ten or twenty movie theater style seats where you could just sit and watch the ticker and converse with your fellow players. Much better than sitting alone at home in front of your computer posting on sites like SA. A few trading stations were also available if you were active and wanted to day trade. A pleasant way to spend a few hours or even the whole day if your work schedule allowed. Minimum commissions were $6.00.

    Ah, those were the days.
    Oct 4, 2015. 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Oil Winners: Exxon Mobil Corporation & Chevron Corporation [View article]
    I don't recall Chevron selling any more assets to raise cash like they did last quarter. Is this a good sign?
    Sep 28, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Failure Of Shiller's CAPE Shows About Stock Picking [View article]
    Re: "This putative best predictor is, of course, Shiller's Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earning (CAPE) ratio, namely the current price of the S&P 500 divided by a moving 10-year earnings average, adjusted for inflation."

    I've asked this question several times before but have never received a satisfactory answer.

    If you are averaging the 10-year earnings, shouldn't you also be averaging the 10-year price? As long as the price is rising the average of the earnings will always lag. Just as the average of the price always lags the current price in a rising market. When the market is falling, the average price always lags the current price.
    Sep 22, 2015. 10:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PayPal: Should You Buy This Growth Machine? [View article]
    I'm not sure how PayPal makes ALL of their money. Since 2004 I have used PayPal using only a credit card. Twice in the past they tried to coerce me into linking my bank account and I refused. Some time later they relented and allowed me to make purchases. I continued with only my credit card for years. Then this year, they insisted I add a second credit card to complete transactions. I refused so I couldn't make the purchase. As of now, I still can't.

    I don't know about others but I refuse to allow direct access to my bank account by PayPal. I understand that credit card companies charge a percentage of the sale so who pays that? PayPal passes that on to the seller?

    I would like the convenience of PayPal but am a stubborn fool.

    Anyone else have similar problems?
    Sep 22, 2015. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Bullard: Why I argued against the Fed rate hold [View news story]
    On the other hand, raising rates would be a form of stimulus.

    For the fence sitters deciding whether to buy a new house, a new car, or anything else that would be financed over a long period of time, a trend in interest rates back to a more normal rate should spur them to act now and lock in a low rate.

    Just a thought.
    Sep 20, 2015. 02:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Apple's Publicity Events Hurting The Stock Price? A Statistical Study [View article]
    Well I don't know anything about p-values and t-tests, but wouldn't a simple graph of the average percentage change over the 60 day period have been sufficient.

    Not difficult at all using a spreadsheet with graphing capabilities. One would need to know the actual dates studied though, which weren't provided.
    Sep 8, 2015. 08:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Best Tasting Bear Ever? [View article]
    Regarding Cook's email to Cramer; is this normal for a CEO to contact Cramer on his own? Seems strange to me. What with all the SPAM emails I see with almost correct Internet addresses, it could be some pulled a fast one on Cramer.

    There's nothing on Apple's website that would provide confirmation of such an important release.

    Just my thoughts.
    Aug 24, 2015. 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Vs. Shale - A Game Of Chicken! [View article]
    The first part was partly in jest.

    The second part addressed the statement preceding the chart "You can't have too many of those, or you will end up like Greece." was not.

    None of the countries on the chart are members of the Euro so the comparison to Greece is not valid. They can print their currencies to oblivion to satisfy their commitments. In the long run though, I guess the end result would be the same.

    I just don't like the acceptance of an opinion (this being the chart) being repeated over and over as a fact. The author even introduced the chart as "familiar" indicating that it was not an original thought.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Vs. Shale - A Game Of Chicken! [View article]
    Noticeably missing from the breakeven chart is the U.S. What price would the U.S. need to balance the budget?

    Surely some of the countries listed have other sources of income than oil.
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment