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DavyJ

DavyJ
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  • Apple: Best Tasting Bear Ever? [View article]
    Regarding Cook's email to Cramer; is this normal for a CEO to contact Cramer on his own? Seems strange to me. What with all the SPAM emails I see with almost correct Internet addresses, it could be some pulled a fast one on Cramer.

    There's nothing on Apple's website that would provide confirmation of such an important release.

    Just my thoughts.
    Aug 24, 2015. 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Vs. Shale - A Game Of Chicken! [View article]
    The first part was partly in jest.

    The second part addressed the statement preceding the chart "You can't have too many of those, or you will end up like Greece." was not.

    None of the countries on the chart are members of the Euro so the comparison to Greece is not valid. They can print their currencies to oblivion to satisfy their commitments. In the long run though, I guess the end result would be the same.

    I just don't like the acceptance of an opinion (this being the chart) being repeated over and over as a fact. The author even introduced the chart as "familiar" indicating that it was not an original thought.
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Vs. Shale - A Game Of Chicken! [View article]
    Noticeably missing from the breakeven chart is the U.S. What price would the U.S. need to balance the budget?

    Surely some of the countries listed have other sources of income than oil.
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Bearish Signal In Dow Jones Industrials [View article]
    For the DJIA, last week looks pretty much the same pattern as the fourth week in January.

    This week start looks like it may be the same as the first week of February.

    Why wasn't the fourth week in January marked as a "Bearish Week"? Hindsight?
    Aug 10, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Payout Ratios Predicted The Last 2 Recessions And Best Buying Opportunities [View article]
    It seems to me that you use the term "investor" when you mean "speculator". To suggest that in investor take "a more passive role in 2005 through 2007" based upon the payout ratio is total speculation, not investing.

    And to suggest that the "investor" would have the foresight to become aggressive after payout ratios have begun to normalize is again pure speculation.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple, Google, Facebook, Alibaba Or American Express Will Acquire PayPal [View article]
    I don't know about others but I refuse to allow direct access to my bank account by PayPal. From time to time they allow me to use PayPal with only one credit card. Then some time later they insist I add a second credit to complete a transaction though they say nothing about the link to my bank account. I refuse to add another credit card or link to my bank account and they don't allow me to complete the purchase. Then after some time they do allow me to use their service for a year or so. Then the cycle repeats.

    Not a way to run a railroad as they say.
    Jul 22, 2015. 08:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Shiller P/E Wrong About Valuations? [View article]
    Scott,
    See my post above. CAPE averages the earnings over ten years but then computes the ratio using a single day's price. Like you said "It makes no sense."
    Jul 7, 2015. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. crude sinks 7.7% to $52.53 in worst day since April [View news story]
    Commodity traders trade. Sometimes they win, sometimes the lose. Lately it seems they have lost touch with reality.

    Just for fun, remember Amaranth Advisors, among others, back in 2006.

    As long as I NEVER sell and the oil majors' dividends aren't completely cut, I have free gasoline from the dividends for the rest of my life. These ups and downs, while discouraging on a daily basis, even out over the long run. CVX, XOM, etc. will outlive me.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks hiking prices for coffee, other drinks [View news story]
    Well they had to compensate for the rise in minimum wage increases and college tuition benefits somehow.

    You didn't think those benevolent did you?
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Shiller P/E Wrong About Valuations? [View article]
    Well if you're going to average earnings over ten years, then it seems to reason that you should average prices over ten years.

    The current DJIA ten year price average is approximately 13,500. Modified CAPE PE ~20.5.

    The current S&P 500 ten year average is approximately 1,480. Modified CAPE PE ~ 19.2.
    Jul 6, 2015. 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The CAPE Graph Really Shows: No, It's Not A Bubble [View article]
    I never understood how one could use a ten year moving average of earnings to compute a PE using the current stock price. A reasonable person would use the ten year average of stock prices.

    But, then again, the library is full of economic books (among others) I don't understand.
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Adding Apple To The DJIA Makes It A Good Investment [View article]
    soleprop,

    Will anyone ever present a convincing argument that a move in the heaviest weighted component of the SPY (right now Apple) should exert almost four hundred times the effect of a move in the lightest weighted (right now Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.).

    The top 10 Holdings comprise 17.35% of Total Assets.

    The top 50 components of the SPY have roughly the same weight as the bottom 450 components. How is that rational?
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CAPE Fear: Should We Brace For Below Average Returns? [View article]
    I admit to being a little slow, but if you are going to average the earnings over 10 years, wouldn't it be logical to average the index over 10 years?

    December 2014
    2058.90 Close
    $122.74 Earnings
    1,425.00 S&P 10 year moving average (eyeballed from bigcharts)
    11.61 10 year averaged PE
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things could get interesting overnight [View news story]
    And software only costs the price of a CD to distribute it on.
    Dec 11, 2014. 07:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Jones Today Shows Warning Signs [View article]
    Re: "The best analogy I've heard for bubbles and why they ultimately burst is the example of dropping grains of sand that build a mound. It gets steeper and steeper until one grain of sand causes an avalanche."

    But the avalanche doesn't destroy the mound. It builds a new base and additional grains of sand build the mound to new heights. Just like the stock market and inflation. Temporary setbacks, then on to new highs.
    Oct 9, 2014. 08:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
430 Comments
626 Likes