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Lake Investor

Lake Investor
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  • When Margin Debt Goes Over 2.25% Of GDP, The Stock Market Always Crashes [View article]
    what are you going to own? If funny money is real, are you really going to trade stocks for more funny money? The existence of funny money strongly suggests one moves out of bonds and cash and into real estate and stocks.
    Jun 19 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Margin Debt Goes Over 2.25% Of GDP, The Stock Market Always Crashes [View article]
    Where did you get your info for real per capita disposable income? It's a large adjustment and I haven't seen any other statistics that would suggest a decline of that magnitude.
    Jun 18 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Margin Debt Goes Over 2.25% Of GDP, The Stock Market Always Crashes [View article]
    The large amount of cash will help prop up the market.

    I appreciate the author's pointing out this statistic. I read Seeking Alpha articles in the hopes of finding such insights. Still, whenever extrapolating from the past, one has to be cautious. The level of margin I think speaks more to the explosion of hedge fund participants. I would bet the margin is pretty concentrated among the high net worth players. I don't see any evidence of bullish mania overtaking the masses. Most seem very cautious and the market seems to be climbing a wall of worry.

    If we see a major correction the author's thesis would be vindicated but another long-held market bellweather (don't fight the fed) would be debunked because it would be very unusual to see a correction in light of the fed's accommodative stance. I think it's fair to say we're in unexplored ground at the moment.
    Jun 18 01:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Pushes On String As Velocity Of Money Dies [View article]
    And Clinton signed nafta but I give him kudos for that.
    Jun 13 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Squeeze! Look For All The Money You Can Invest In The Stock Market [View article]
    You are cautious but ready to jump in after a two or three day sell off? That's cutting it pretty fine. If we did have a two or three day sell off most people would be psychologically affected by it and wouldn't pull the buy trigger.

    Better to focus on the big macro levers
    --don't fight the accommodative fed.
    --gridlock in Washington is favorable
    --US energy boom
    --earnings yield premium over bond yields is showing extreme undervaluation of stocks on a relative basis.

    Don't over think it
    May 27 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    If you are long PEP and think fair valor is $60.67 you should sell
    May 27 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Price Correction Is Far From Over: Part 2 [View article]
    You could be right but I think this time will be different. The next bear will not start with tech stocks at high valuations. 2000 had high multiples on all big tech stocks. MSFT, CSCO, INTC and many other techs spent the last twelve years growing profits steadily. Dividends are also now a major catalyst. Despite the growth in these items the share prices are little changed over the last decade. I think we are looking at a number of years of relative outperformance by the sector.

    CSCO is one of my biggest holdings. Good article
    May 22 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Public Companies Should Have Public Tax Returns [View article]
    Bad idea. Why stop there? Why not all personal income taxes. Your conclusion results when you start from the premise that the government is entitled to all. Personal freedoms are still important. Our corporate tax code is an abomination and a job killer. If democrats got what they wanted (much higher tax receipts from corporations) you would have fewer jobs created in US and more companies going completely offshore. Many multinationals do a minority of their business in the US. If forced to pay taxes on worldwide income they would just leave.
    May 21 01:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquefied natural gas exports from the U.S. are looking more likely after the Freeport LNG terminal gained conditional approval, Goldman Sachs says, supporting its view that at least 6.8B cu. ft./day of liquefaction capacity will be built in the U.S. The market needs no more than 7.7B/day for the next decade, and Henry Hub prices need to stay at or below $5.10/MBtu to keep U.S. LNG competitive in Europe, Goldman says. [View news story]
    I think there's still a greater chance that NG prices recover and LNG exports are not as compelling. I'd be careful investing too much capital in export terminals. Good chance US switches to more and more power generation and use of CNG in transportation thus making US demand go up.
    May 21 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shame On You, Apple [View article]
    Rubbish. What you mean to say is that envious greedy persons would like it better if the law took more from successful businessmen like Mr. Romney. His actions did not violate the letter or spirit of the law.

    From what I learned about Mr. Romney he rendered great service to others in his church and community. He worked and saved the Salt Lake City Olympics for no remuneration. He did all this while succeeding in the business world. To denigrate him made a poor article actually offensive. You owe him an apology.

    For you to pass moral judgment on him is beyond the pale.

    I'm an apple shareholder but not an activist (I don't actually even read and sign a proxy). However, count me among those cheering their latest move. There's not unanimity among Apple shareholders on the move but I bet most like the move. That is the only constituency Apple should care about. They certainly shouldn't give a hang what a bunch of self-appointed moralists think or say.
    May 1 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +3.2%) is reportedly offering $17B in its bond sale, making it the largest U.S. corporate debt deal ever. Bloomberg reports $5.5B in 10-year debt will be sold at just a 75bps premium to 10-year Treasury yields (currently at 1.68%). (previous: I, II) Update (3:47): The deal is official. Reuters: "The company is offering $1 billion of three-year floating-rate notes, $1.5 billion of three-year fixed-rate notes, $2 billion of five-year floating-rate notes, $4 billion of five-year fixed-rate notes, $5.5 billion of 10-year fixed-rate notes and $3 billion of 30-year fixed-rate notes." [View news story]
    Your comment is utter nonsense. Almost all commentators agree that US corporate law is based not on efficiencies but on a "bash the rich" philosophy. Apple doesn't go abroad just to save taxes--it goes abroad because the world is a big place and people want their products all over the world. US Corporate tax policy discourages capital formation in the US. It creates incentives that make it more likely that Apple invests and manufactures abroad. That is bad policy designed to appease the envy brigade that you belong to. Hopefully, some day we'll get an administration that pursues sounder policy not based on envy.

    Corporations are not sentient human beings and therefore are incapable of "greed." Anyone who utters the phrase "greedy corporation" betrays their envy and desire to confiscate the hard earned gains of the true wealth creators because they can't create or earn anything themselves.
    May 1 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +3.2%) is reportedly offering $17B in its bond sale, making it the largest U.S. corporate debt deal ever. Bloomberg reports $5.5B in 10-year debt will be sold at just a 75bps premium to 10-year Treasury yields (currently at 1.68%). (previous: I, II) Update (3:47): The deal is official. Reuters: "The company is offering $1 billion of three-year floating-rate notes, $1.5 billion of three-year fixed-rate notes, $2 billion of five-year floating-rate notes, $4 billion of five-year fixed-rate notes, $5.5 billion of 10-year fixed-rate notes and $3 billion of 30-year fixed-rate notes." [View news story]
    The two things are not mutually exclusive. They say new products are coming and that is their history. They have the money to do this as well and they should do it. It would be better if we had a sane corporate tax policy that didn't destroy jobs through double taxation and excessive rates. However, right now Apple has to live within the existing system. They are doing the right things in the face of current environment by floating debt, buying back shares and continuing to keep foreign earnings parked offshore--all things that are in the interest of shareholders. Cook gets an "A" for getting this right.
    Apr 30 04:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Environmental Decision: Natural Gas Transportation Or Keystone-XL? [View article]
    What do you call a country whose chief prosecutor wants to fine Chevron $20 Billion for a 2,000 gallon spill? That's as banana republic as they come even if they have an elected leader.

    Latin America is a tough place to invest with countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil always trying to take shots at the oil companies. They somehow think they're justified in taking shots at "imperialistic U.S." that is the source of their troubles.

    I feel much safer promoting investment in Canada than in any of those places.
    Apr 26 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Environmental Decision: Natural Gas Transportation Or Keystone-XL? [View article]
    we need more filling stations for NG but over twenty years ago Utahns were filling NG vehicles in their own garages with NG delivered by their local gas company--Mountain Fuel. Nearly all homes get NG delivery. A mass produced compressor would enable people to fill up cheaply at home. It boggles my mind that Obama doesn't get behind this.

    Is he deliberately benefitting his Saudi buddies to the detriment of the US?
    Apr 26 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Environmental Decision: Natural Gas Transportation Or Keystone-XL? [View article]
    A pipeline to the west coast would be very problematic because of the more sensitive environmental areas the pipeline would have to cross. Better to access your closest market. The stuff that flows through the U.S. to Houston can still be transshipped elsewhere in the world. I see the US exporting more refined petroleum products.
    Apr 15 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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