Seeking Alpha

Lake Investor

Lake Investor
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Lake Investor's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
    You're engaging in overstatement. Do you see Apple falling to $100? When it has $145 per share in cash and the cash balance is growing by over $15 per share per quarter? I say there are plenty of things preventing Apple shares from falling below the numbers you cited.
    Jan 24, 2013. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon? [View article]

    I appreciated your thoughts on estimating iphone volumes and extrapolating from T and VZ sales.

    I'd like to know how margins are impacted by the change in the mix from high end to older models becoming more prominent. I would have expected that in emerging markets but am a little surprised to see it in the US. I suspect the margins on the older models is still significant.

    So many facts, so much noise. Still, the positives overseas with more retail and better China penetration make for a big upside. I've stayed long since buying at $370 though I took profits on half my position once and then bought back in later at a much lower price.

    I still reflect on what Peter Lynch taught about not getting caught up in investment details but investing in what you know and experience. I know from personal experience that Apple makes the best products. I love the iphone and ipad. I've played with alternatives and think they are crap.
    Jan 22, 2013. 07:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    It will probably fall negative $60 (or go up $60) initially with more to follow if the pattern described holds.

    I don't know but I doubt if there is much of a correlation between Apple profit reports and Amazon movements. They only compete in one area (tablets) and that's not much of a competition. I doubt one could find a statistically significant correlation there.

    What are the chances Macro Investor comes up with a scary Apple scenario after Apple posts great numbers? What are the chances that Macro Investor says "I've seen the light and I'm going long Apple?"
    Jan 21, 2013. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    I agree. Take the article for what it is--an interesting statistical view. Thanks to the author for wading through the stats. Criticism should be limited to mistakes in calculation or methodology (which most are probably not qualified to make). I appreciate articles that offer a new perspective.
    Jan 21, 2013. 01:56 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Blossoms In The Spring [View article]
    Why not catch the updraft before you short the rally? Shorting Apple's rallies the last few years probably would have resulted in big losses unless one is the most nimble of traders and always got out of his short positions at the precise moment.

    I'm sure there are a few short traders who have made money in Apple the last six months. I bet there aren't any who have been in that business over the last six years that have made any money.
    Jan 21, 2013. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sheer Idiocy Of Debt Ceiling Negotiations [View article]
    That makes no sense. There has not been a budget passed since the last increase in the debt limit. Democrats are going on four years without doing a budget. As a lawyer I'm telling your legal argument would not fly.

    Entitlements are a bad idea and should never have been enacted. The day will come when we will decrease entitlements. Probably sooner rather than later.

    I'm a long term investor so I'm hoping for a shut down. I doubt it happens. How long are we going to subsidize professional educators who never increase their productivity by making student loans universally available. All it has done is allow education costs to rise above inflation. Every other industry has seen cost reductions and productivity increases from the technology boom--except education.

    The list is long and we need to eventually address all the spending shibboleths.
    Jan 15, 2013. 02:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Intelligent REITs I Adore, But Can't Buy Right Now [View article]
    Great Article Brad as always. Agree on the value of FAST graphs.

    I think these stocks will always be "hold your nose" and pay up. The management knows its business and submarkets and is apparently disciplined in making acquisitions and managing its properties. These REITS have largely outperformed the REIT universe which suggests great management.
    Jan 15, 2013. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Will Remain Tame In 2013 [View article]
    Those Treasuries or agency bonds that the Fed will then sell will be sold at a large loss as bond prices will have fallen sharply bytthen if reported inflation is 3%. Fed bailout is in a race with student loan debt to be the next large "bailout."

    I don't get why people think things the Fed does are magically free. They are investments for the Fed as they are for anyone else. I think the bond purchases will show their dark side eventually. Operation twist is also pernicious as the federal government should be borrowing long, not short. I don't want to see long term treasuries retired--I'd rather see more issued at historically low rates. The government is telling everyone to refinance their homes at historically low rates (a good idea) while doing the exact opposite themselves. Treasury is really going to be squeezed when our borrowing costs spike and it has to roll over short term treasuries at sharply higher rates.
    Jan 10, 2013. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Inflation Will Remain Tame In 2013 [View article]
    Then it will be too late.

    Your point about household debt doesn't make sense. The chart and published figures show absolute household debt levels. If new debt were being incurred to pay principal and interest then absolute levels would be increasing.

    Consumers and businesses are deleveraging rapidly because they are (a) fearful, and (b) think tax burdens will go up. That decreases consumption which can put a temporary damper on reported inflation. Ultimately, however, inflation is a monetary phenomenom as Milton Friedman taught. The monetary indicators are telling us that inevitably we'll see inflation. It's not different this time around.

    If you truly believe what you're writing you should be shorting commodities and commodity producers whose prices have significantly outrun reported inflation in recent years.

    The monetary actions that have been taken in the last few years (quantitative easing) arereally unprecedented in US history. The eventual price response will be typical. I don't think Obama or his appointed minion (be it Bernanke or a successor) will have the onions to throw the brakes on the money supply a la Paul Volcker (with Reagan's support). Consequently, I expect the next run of inflation to perhaps last longer than the 70's inflation.
    Jan 10, 2013. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Cheaper iPhone Would Confirm A Lack Of Innovation And Declining Margins At Apple [View article]

    Your comment seems so internally consistent. You're a long time AAPL owner and you feel there's no shareholder support from management? If you're a long time holder you have received a lot of support to your bottom line from Apple shares. Steve Jobs never went out and talked up the stock--single minded focus on products led to eventual mind blowing returns on the stock.

    Cook and the current apple management team have the same focus. As it should be. When they start pimping the stock everyday is the day I sell.

    I can't tell you how many times Jim Cramer had Chesapeake's Aubrey McClendon on his show pimping Chesapeake stock over the last few years--all while the stock cratered. Fixation on what the market is doing to your company is to me a sign of weakness.

    You will regret selling. How long have you been investing?
    Jan 9, 2013. 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Cheaper iPhone Would Confirm A Lack Of Innovation And Declining Margins At Apple [View article]
    Apple made many interations of the Ipod, many of cheaper than top line models. They milked that product line for years? Why not try to offer a slight variant of existing products to a new mass market? The analogy to the BMW lines is apt.

    How can you say they have nowhere to go but the cheap seats? Iphone users still report the highest satisfaction levels of all phone users (notwithstanding protestations from some android users that their phones are better). All consumer surveys I have sen also indicate that iphone users are far more likely to seek new iterations of iphone than android users are to seek new android models.

    On other product lines (desktops, laptops) apple also has a broad product offering. Why is that people are now making a big deal of line extensions in ipads and iphones? The central premise of your article is silly.
    Jan 9, 2013. 01:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Somehow There Must Be A REIT That Screams Wow [View article]

    From the acquisitions you described it seems STAG is buying a lot of the larger single tenant industrial offerings. Do you know how many of their properties were originally sale/leasebacks by tenants? Do you think their portfolio presents an above-average rollover risk?

    The price per square foot paid seems reasonable on the acquisitions cited but if markets continue depressed empty space from tenants vacating space will put a damper on that portfolio. The occupancy rate probably has nowhere to go but down.

    STAG's ability to renew leases on favorable terms will be key. It's easy to grow now because there are a lot of the large industrial properties on the market. To me that signals owners nervous about rollover risk. I'm a real estate attorney representing investors and I see a lot of the type of deals you described. Most get passed over because smaller investors don't want to take the rollover risk.

    In my view STAG's ability to handle their first big round of lease rollovers will be key to evaluating the company (did they buy right). It's easy to accumulate such properties now so I don't give them a lot of kudos for finding things to buy.
    Jan 8, 2013. 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Chess Game In Mobile Semiconductors [View article]
    Wish I could go ahead two years and see how this mobile chip battle plays out. Like the author I have a hard time buying the explanation that INTC blindly built excess capacity. INTC has started to get some small wins in the mobile space but nothing yet that would cause a complete reversal of the field in its favor. I'm not sure Qualcomm will be faced with "instant obsolescence" though when has the dominant mobile share at present with INTC barely scratching the surface. The Qualcomm side also has some compelling arguments and I'm sure they're not sitting on their hands.

    As an Apple investor I shake my head at android fans who argue vehemently that there are superior smartphones to the iphone. I hear the arguments but they contradict my personal experience that comes from experimenting with other phones or talking to acquaintances about their experiences with smartphones.

    I wonder if the INTC/Qualcomm battle isn't analgous. INTC believers are sure INTC will have the prowess to dominate the mobile market but the verdict rendered by the marketplace to date refutes that. I'm long INTC for the dividend, the markets it does dominate and the fact that management is shareholder friendly--not because I believe it will be the clear winner in mobile.

    Whether we correctly pick the winner of the Qualcomm/INTC/Samsung/... semiconductor war one thing is for sure and that is we will all likely be enjoying great mobile computing devices for years to come.
    Jan 8, 2013. 12:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Dynamics: Stop The Roller Coaster, I Need To Get Off [View article]

    I think you're reacting too much to the news of the day. Here are some salient facts about GD.

    Trading at 9.45 times forward earnings.

    Nearly as much cash as debt.

    Dividend has increased 340% in the last ten years ($.15 to .51 quarterly). Payout ratio is 29%.

    This company knows how to treat shareholders well. I charted its progress since 1977 against the S&P, Boeing (another defense aerospace name) and KO (a low beta dividend stock) over that period and GD beat all of them handily. Easy to compare on Yahoo Finance.

    The down market the last couple days is giving you a chance to reverse course and get back in.
    Dec 26, 2012. 02:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Announce A $100 Billion Stock Buyback [View article]
    Don't know if 100b is the right number but I would like to see an annual reduction in float and an increase in dividend. Cook ill keep enough money around for all new initiatives.
    Dec 24, 2012. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment