A Common Myth About Shale Oil And GDP [View article]
Actually crude price is within 1% of its Fundamentals Fair Value. USA RAC price has been in equilibrium since June 2012. Yes improvements will assist further decline over the next four years, but not more than $13.
Amazing Demographic Trends In The 50-And-Older Workforce [View article]
In general I agree with their projections for expenditures, but not revenues. Their GDP is far too optimistic (mine is $22.4 trillion 2023) and their estimate for debt service far too low. I use their current policy (alt) scenario ... not current laws version in my Debt Wall model: http://bit.ly/vIM1wQ
Peter Schiff confuses a currency exchange metric for a general inflation tool. silly.
TRI gauges April's federal deficit's fiscal multipliers lifted Structural GDP (-4.8%) to a Real GDP pace of 2.1%. TRI continues to project Real GDP momentum over the past eight quarters will peak in Q2 as Congressional austerity measures trim its deficit.
An Updated Look At The Long Leading Indicators [View article]
TRI gauges April's federal deficit fiscal multipliers lifted Structural GDP (-4.8%) to a Real GDP pace of 2.1%. TRI continues to project Real GDP momentum will be at an end in Q2 as Congressional austerity measures trim its deficit.
Recession Watch: ECRI's Weekly Leading Indicator Continues To Show Improvement [View article]
TRI gauges April's federal deficit's fiscal multipliers lifted Structural GDP (-4.8%) to a Real GDP pace of 2.1%. TRI continues to project Real GDP momentum will be at an end in Q2 as Congressional austerity measures trim its deficit.
Sequestration is only part of the problem. This year's federal deficit will be $125 billion less than last year and the diminished multiplier effect will manifest in a soft 2H13.
Lessons From Earnings Season And The Dog That Did Not Bark [View article]
Behavioural patterns suggest the indices are long past due for a major correction, the delay no doubt related to stocks being generally at fair value today. My TRI model indicates GDP growth rates will wane after 2Q13 for many quarters. This limiting factor on Revenues (and Profits for some) may be the impetus for a reversal upon one of coming earnings seasons.
However steep, the move would be short-lived ‘cuz when the FOMC starts to raise its key rates in Jan/2015, there will be a mass exodus from bonds into equities. That rally will indeed defy fundamentals and would set up a more appropriate behavioural correction. My confidence level is much higher for the latter down move.
Debunking The Keynesian Policy Framework: The Myth Of The Magic Pendulum [View article]
Interesting approach. My studies assumed there will indeed be central bank and/or fiscal policy intervention and concluded 8.1-year business cycles will yield new troughs in 2017, 2026 & 2034. The recent once-in-a-lifetime balance sheet recession seems to be playing havoc with the harmonics however. TRI shows no sign of contractions 'til 2024.
Growth In United States Oil Production Peaked In 2012 [View article]
To be crystal with respect to projections, the growth rate for light tight shale oil will be diminishing and result in its US peak in 2024. Shortly thereafter the 11-Mbd All Liquids peak will be surpassed as CTL & GTL undergo a similar surge. This could establish a new growth rate peak as well.
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Crude Oil - Gravity Takes Over [View article]
USA RAC ($99) will decline to $81 over the next four years due to ever improving fundamentals (and non-fundamentals). At $14/barrel, the Stress Premium price component has room to fall further. It is doubtful Spec/Hedging Activity will remain at historic highs. Surplus Capacity and Inventories are poised to rise. So subject to caveats, an $18 decline is in play. The decline would be greater but the model projects further USDollar Debasement.
A Common Myth About Shale Oil And GDP [View article]
longterm oil price outlook chart: http://bit.ly/pq7MQI
Amazing Demographic Trends In The 50-And-Older Workforce [View article]
Amazing Demographic Trends In The 50-And-Older Workforce [View article]
gdp outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
The Risk Of Recession Is Low And Declining [View article]
GDP outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
Amazing Demographic Trends In The 50-And-Older Workforce [View article]
The Energy Revolution Has Just Started [View article]
the Barrel Meter & TRI-USA charts: http://bit.ly/nok4wK
Symptoms Don't Lie [View article]
TRI gauges April's federal deficit's fiscal multipliers lifted Structural GDP (-4.8%) to a Real GDP pace of 2.1%. TRI continues to project Real GDP momentum over the past eight quarters will peak in Q2 as Congressional austerity measures trim its deficit.
real & structural gdp charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
An Updated Look At The Long Leading Indicators [View article]
real & structural gdp charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
Recession Watch: ECRI's Weekly Leading Indicator Continues To Show Improvement [View article]
real & structural gdp charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
Stunning Demographic Trends In Employment: New Update [View article]
Sequestration Stings [View article]
GDP outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
Lessons From Earnings Season And The Dog That Did Not Bark [View article]
However steep, the move would be short-lived ‘cuz when the FOMC starts to raise its key rates in Jan/2015, there will be a mass exodus from bonds into equities. That rally will indeed defy fundamentals and would set up a more appropriate behavioural correction. My confidence level is much higher for the latter down move.
gdp outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
Debunking The Keynesian Policy Framework: The Myth Of The Magic Pendulum [View article]
gdp outlook charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
Growth In United States Oil Production Peaked In 2012 [View article]
depletion chart: http://bit.ly/pOstbG
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Crude Oil - Gravity Takes Over [View article]