ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Rises But Growth Rate Continues Lower [View article]
The animal-spirits-plus tracked by TRI have been collapsing in the last few days and weeks to the degree TRI is today projecting Q3 GDP will be the worst since July 2009.
Short term forward-looking data is severely downgrading the optimistic projections via previous medium term data. If this pattern continues, Q4 & 2013Q1 will contract.
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Rises But Growth Rate Continues Lower [View article]
Kirk, $64 or so oil has been predictable for two years by anyone following crude's fundamentals outlook. In May 2010 when oil was $80, the Barrel Meter predicted triple digit prices followed by a collapse: http://bit.ly/LbuYLd
Last July with prices at $104, the fact this was only a spike and not sustainable prices was reconfirmed: http://bit.ly/L5lHaI
Nothing in my commentary said anything about Eurozone, usa downturns or justin bieber. Oil historically tracks within 5% of its fundamentals fair value. The world is unfolding as it should...
John Hussman: A Brief Primer On The European Crisis [View article]
Agreed. Fear of the future appears to have attained critical mass over the last few weeks among both consumers and commerce. The animal-spirits-plus as measured by TRI have fallen off the precipice. TRI projects September (Q3) GDP will be the lowest announced since July 2009, down from 1.6% in May.
niceguy, QE & TARP involved the creation of virtual money to buy financial instruments to free up capital for needed liquidity. This debases a nation's currency.
OpTwist merely trades short term instruments for long term to generally bring down medium and long term interest rates. This action has no significant effect on the currency, but entices firms to borrow for expansion and investors to risk more capital in search of higher yields.
John Hussman: A Brief Primer On The European Crisis [View article]
Diego, there is a good reason there are only four comments on John Hussman's opinion today. His clients and audience have deserted him. He declared the USA went into Recession on Aug 8th and told 'em to hunker down when the S&P500 was 1119. Today it is 1357. Same problem at ECRI & Rosenberg shops. Enuf said.
Is Joe Sixpack's Economy Deep Into A Recession? [View article]
In a perfect world you would be correct, gm2b, but your economy is being penalized and impaired by all the freeloaders showing up at the emergency rooms w/o money. You are already paying for universal health care ... by default.
Why Is The U.S. Economic Recovery So Weak? [View article]
There are nations (like Canada) where infrastructure spending is being pursued to relieve the situation. But there are very few jurisdictions who went into the Great Recession with low enuf debt/GDP ratios to accomplish that feat responsibly.
Those who tried but didn't have the capacity, as Rogoff warned, are paying the price. This included the USA. And there is no appetite to allow the federal (or state) gov't to borrow to implement infrastructure projects. It has been suggested many times since 2009 that the funds would be available "if" the Democrats and their celebrity President would agree to match the new spending with cuts in medium and long-term entitlements ... but they refused.
Fed Preview: How Big A Bazooka Does Ben Need? [View article]
Consumers can also mitigate DC dysfunction ... via the Election. Watch the celebrity President's poll results decline as Q3 estimates commence to come in. If as bad as I see today, the Republicans will take both houses of Congress as well...
Weighing The Week Ahead: Can The Fed Meet Expectations? [View article]
Housing sales and prices bottomed last year. As consumers and investors see the new secular uptrend I expect a surge in activity to boost mortgage rates. Eventual resolution or perceived appreciation of a path to solution of the Eurozone issues will allow the fear element driving low long term bond rates to ease.
And albeit the US may have a 2% target for inflation, I don't believe this will hold internationally and higher commodity inflation will drive all rates up. This is reflected in my current projections for USA contract crude: $64 by May, but rising to a high of $104 by 2014Q2 in a new spike event.
Is Joe Sixpack's Economy Deep Into A Recession? [View article]
John, if in your deliberations you tally the 12 American Depressions you will find they all have two things in common: multi-year and deep contractions. The Great Depression was outstanding in its metrics hence the new moniker of greater depression came into use: GDP avg'd -7.3% over 43 months (14 quarters).
Fed Preview: How Big A Bazooka Does Ben Need? [View article]
As any non-american knows, their currency has gained 30% against your dollar since 2002: http://yhoo.it/LCto65#symbol=;range=my;comp...
The int'l investment community is making it clear the mismanagement (by several Administrations and Congresses) of your government operations is being less tolerated each year. The USD's course is in secular decline with no sign of abatement. The present flee to safety is a mere short term hiccup...
Weighing The Week Ahead: Can The Fed Meet Expectations? [View article]
The advantage of longer terms is two-fold. Rates will be 2% higher two years from now. We have learned from Argentina, Spain, Italy & Greece that it is not wise to have lotsa short term debt coming due for renewal when you are facing a difficult spell...
So OpTwist is good for the economy. For the election, Administration wants lowest deficit figures possible, thus Geithner's actions are a political move.
Lowering the medium and long term rates coaxes firms to borrow for expansion and new household formations to buy a home. Also tempts investors to a risk-on stance in frustration of low rates on cash holdings. Downside is lower incomes for retirees...
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Rises But Growth Rate Continues Lower [View article]
Short term forward-looking data is severely downgrading the optimistic projections via previous medium term data. If this pattern continues, Q4 & 2013Q1 will contract.
TRI charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Rises But Growth Rate Continues Lower [View article]
Last July with prices at $104, the fact this was only a spike and not sustainable prices was reconfirmed: http://bit.ly/L5lHaI
Nothing in my commentary said anything about Eurozone, usa downturns or justin bieber. Oil historically tracks within 5% of its fundamentals fair value. The world is unfolding as it should...
Barrel Meter charts: http://bit.ly/pq7MQI
John Hussman: A Brief Primer On The European Crisis [View article]
TRI charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
Don't Expect QE3... Yet [View article]
OpTwist merely trades short term instruments for long term to generally bring down medium and long term interest rates. This action has no significant effect on the currency, but entices firms to borrow for expansion and investors to risk more capital in search of higher yields.
John Hussman: A Brief Primer On The European Crisis [View article]
TRI charts: http://bit.ly/pfbeJm
Is Joe Sixpack's Economy Deep Into A Recession? [View article]
Why Is The U.S. Economic Recovery So Weak? [View article]
Those who tried but didn't have the capacity, as Rogoff warned, are paying the price. This included the USA. And there is no appetite to allow the federal (or state) gov't to borrow to implement infrastructure projects. It has been suggested many times since 2009 that the funds would be available "if" the Democrats and their celebrity President would agree to match the new spending with cuts in medium and long-term entitlements ... but they refused.
Debt Wall & GDP projection charts: http://bit.ly/sTaQy3
Fed Preview: How Big A Bazooka Does Ben Need? [View article]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Can The Fed Meet Expectations? [View article]
And albeit the US may have a 2% target for inflation, I don't believe this will hold internationally and higher commodity inflation will drive all rates up. This is reflected in my current projections for USA contract crude: $64 by May, but rising to a high of $104 by 2014Q2 in a new spike event.
the charts: http://bit.ly/nok4wK
Is Joe Sixpack's Economy Deep Into A Recession? [View article]
Fed Preview: How Big A Bazooka Does Ben Need? [View article]
The int'l investment community is making it clear the mismanagement (by several Administrations and Congresses) of your government operations is being less tolerated each year. The USD's course is in secular decline with no sign of abatement. The present flee to safety is a mere short term hiccup...
Is Joe Sixpack's Economy Deep Into A Recession? [View article]
Fed Preview: How Big A Bazooka Does Ben Need? [View article]
Fed Preview: How Big A Bazooka Does Ben Need? [View article]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Can The Fed Meet Expectations? [View article]
So OpTwist is good for the economy. For the election, Administration wants lowest deficit figures possible, thus Geithner's actions are a political move.
Lowering the medium and long term rates coaxes firms to borrow for expansion and new household formations to buy a home. Also tempts investors to a risk-on stance in frustration of low rates on cash holdings. Downside is lower incomes for retirees...