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Freddy Hutter, TrendLines Research
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As a data analyst, Freddy Hutter of Trendlines Research provides guidance in chart format on the specialties of peak oil, realty bubbles, baseline GDP projections and election predictions. Virtually each day an update is published to the website's MemberVenue. All charts are made publicly... More
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Trendlines Research
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TrendLines Chart Blog
  • Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Targets Vs Capacity

    (click to enlarge)click to enlarge ... more peak oil charts at my SA Instablog & website

    Saudi Arabia MSC & Supply Outlook ... an update

    March 31 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Guidance from the Kingdom and/or Saudi Aramco with respect to MegaProjects & Surplus Capacity has been limited to fine-tuning over the past three years. OPEC mandated quota restrictions had kept Supply below national targets in 2008, 2009 & 2010, but geopolitical issues surrounding Libya & Iran drew KSA from its reluctant role as swing producer. Saudi Arabia set new monthly/quarterly/annual production records in 2011.

    In 2009 I predicted that year would prove to be the Kingdom's Peak Year for Maximum Sustainable Capacity (NYSEARCA:MSC). Today it appears the 12.5-Mbd high will be unchallenged and high idle capacity (2.0-Mbd) continues to hide this milestone event. Last week's URR Linearization update re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating their total resource base. In 2009 I revealed their claim of 900-Gb was more like 212-Gb. Nothing has changed.

    All the announced MegaProjects are still underway. Due to the subdued Demand growth since the Great Recession, final commissioning of Manifa will be stretched out to 2014. The preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction indicates the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil has climbed from 2.5% to to 3.6% per annum over the past two years. RCO extraction should remain above 8.0-Mbd 'til 2021.

    (click to enlarge)

    Update of legacy Saudi Arabia Crude Production Forecasts by Husseini & theOilDrum

    Here's my annual look-see at how the legacy predictions by Sadad al Husseini and theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have performed against facts on the ground. Admittedly, all efforts have been stymied to some degree by OPEC mandated quota restrictions. This is exactly why it was decided back in Feb/2009 to depict my Peak Scenario-2500's as Maximum Sustainable Capacity ... not Production.

    The PS-2500 continues to project 2009 as Peak Year for MSC. The Kingdom's 3.6% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects to have sufficient magnitude necessary to breach 2009's 12.5-Mbd high. Based on last week's Linearization update, my estimate of KSA URR nudges up slightly to 211-Gb.

    The Husseini Outlook takes a similar view with its production high (2023) of only 11-Mbd. The Ace (joker?) over @ TOD forecasts extraction going south after 2011. Meanwhile, the infamous high-case worst-case scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford continue to be emblematic of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data, misinformation and mass hysteria at that place. Since 2002, McPeakster websites & pundits have been the best thing to ever have come along for oil sector shareholders & NOCs since the invention of the automobile. The dozens of alarmist "news feeds" disseminated by McPeaksters each week contribute directly to the bottom line of Producers via windfall profits.

    original article

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 15 3:25 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Fossil fuel contribution to co2 peak

    (click to enlarge)click to enlarge ... more peak oil charts at my SA Instablog & website

    Fossil Fuels Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations: 423ppm Peak in 2029

    March 28th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 28th MemberVenue guidance ~ The 2011 annual analysis by Trendlines Research of fossil fuels emissions indicates their contribution should result in a peak of atmospheric co2 concentration of 423-ppm in 2029. It should be noted that while rising co2 concentration levels exhibit a correlated upwards tracking with total emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not follow the post peak downward path of emissions as quickly. Most co2 remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a millennium. By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only 348-ppm ... taking us back to 1980 concentrations. The long-term effect of this anthropogenic influence appears to be a delaying of the next glacial event from 7000 AD to the next harmonic in 40000 AD.

    Underlying the simultaneous total emissions & co2 concentration peak in 2029 are a coal emissions peak in 2025; PEAK DEMAND of All Liquids in 2029 (100-Mbd); and a natural gas emissions peak in 2035. These updated findings of Freddy Hutter's original Dec/2007 study continues to contrast substantially with the consensus view represented by the Hansen & Kharecha white paper (NASA Nov/2007) suggesting co2 will peak @ 585-ppm in Year 2100. It assumes a 96-Mbd oil peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003 study by EIA/Wood.

    The Trendlines Research study is founded on a premise that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001 were overly optimistic in the sense they assumed the growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable incomes in the BRIC nations would be fueled by fossil fuels. Unfortunately, there isn't enuf oil, coal and natural gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand. The target GDP growth may well occur, but will be enabled by efficiencies, conservation and increases in nuclear generated power.

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    Year 2100 co2 ppm target is 348 ... not 695-730 indicated by IPCC premise of unlimited Fossil Fuel Resource

    March 29th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Update of the annual co2-GHG analysis by Trendlines Research reveals it is quite improbable co2 will ever attain the 695 ppm level for Year 2100 indicated by Mauna Loa gains, or the 730-ppm suggested by the trend of global readings. Both lofty figures wrongly assume there is an unlimited supply of coal, oil and natural gas to quench the appetite of developing BRIC nations. On the contrary, today's study reveals current estimates of remaining fossil fuel resource and declining growth rates for demand should see fossil fuel emissions peak in 2029. This event would result in a maximum co2 atmospheric concentration of 423-ppm (393 today), declining to 348-ppm by Year 2100.

    This analysis shows atmospheric co2 concentrations and the related growth rate both continue to rise (see coral & yellow lines). Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm to 3ppm/yr. If there is good news, it is that concentrations of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually rather than the near 3%/yr back in the early 80's. This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts.

    The infamous Al Gore graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy. Its absurd 800-ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the 1998 El Niño. This episode is viewable via the co2 emission growth rate in the chart below. The 2001 IPCC Report, while well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in co2 and temp's based on that anomaly. Observations over the subsequent 10 years have shown albeit the co2 emission rate is indeed increasing, it is not at the alarming rate suggested by some scientists and social engineers of the IPCC 2001 era.

    original article

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 10 10:07 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Historic Tracking Of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model: 1989-2011

    (click to enlarge)click to enlarge ... more peak oil charts at my SA Instablog & website

    Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model: 1989-2011

    March 28 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th website MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's update adds Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook. It re-confirms his position All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the contrary) and is founded on a 2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year). The chart tracks all the production profile revisions over his career. Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012. In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked. To be accurate ... a sub-peak. In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @ 66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.

    Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97 Mbd peak in 2010. His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002). TRENDLiners may have notice my last three annual chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections. I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional Oil ... not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary confusion. His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet crude at my Scenarios venue.

    The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97-Mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2011 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call: 80-Mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-Mbd scenario which declared that All Liquids would never breach its 1979 record). Because the Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was not readily apparent that five of Campbell's early All Liquids projections failed to exhaust his designated URR. The 300-yr outlook resolution view of this chart exposes the errant methodology of the Depletion Model in 1999, Y2k, 2002, 2003 & 2004. These profiles have been corrected via compensating plateaus or "doglegs".

    See how the 2010 ASPO Depletion Model measures up against other failed outlooks in our Invalidated Scenarios presentation & compared agin Tier-1 URR estimates.

    click here to see how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against the only other three studies addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)

    original article

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Apr 09 12:24 AM | Link | Comment!
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