Dusty's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/206068/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/157385-prime-mortgages-are-also-going-sour?source=feed#comment-639696 639696
The 'Alt-A' and 'Agency' and several other middle class and upper middle class kinds of adjustable real estate loans are only beginning to falter. 'Subprime' was almost a flash in the pan compared to what is just barely started in the Real Estate markets.

"Winter" this year should come early. If there is not a replay of 2008 this fall it is only because of the Federal programs that have pushed and stretched the financial environment like a chart drawn on the side of a rubber balloon. Nothing really changes, there is just a distortion in the lines. This will be a very long 'winter.'

This next phase of the Real Estate collapse will peak in February of 2012. By Christmas of 2013 most of us will be beginning to realize that it is under control but not 'over.' The most believable estimates I have seen say good stabilization by 2017 or maybe into 2018 and decent recovery so that there is a semblance of the new "Normal" by 2025.

That new "Normal" will encompass changes far beyond any ability to forecast or imagine because of the events about to happen in this Depression.]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:40:52 -0400
The 'Alt-A' and 'Agency' and several other middle class and upper middle class kinds of adjustable real estate loans are only beginning to falter. 'Subprime' was almost a flash in the pan compared to what is just barely started in the Real Estate markets.

"Winter" this year should come early. If there is not a replay of 2008 this fall it is only because of the Federal programs that have pushed and stretched the financial environment like a chart drawn on the side of a rubber balloon. Nothing really changes, there is just a distortion in the lines. This will be a very long 'winter.'

This next phase of the Real Estate collapse will peak in February of 2012. By Christmas of 2013 most of us will be beginning to realize that it is under control but not 'over.' The most believable estimates I have seen say good stabilization by 2017 or maybe into 2018 and decent recovery so that there is a semblance of the new "Normal" by 2025.

That new "Normal" will encompass changes far beyond any ability to forecast or imagine because of the events about to happen in this Depression.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137075-great-depression-2-not-even-close?source=feed#comment-500224 500224
The current state of the economy is also not even close to where it is going. The housing-driven crash of Subprime that brought us to where we are now is only a prologue.

The housing-driven crash of Alt-A and its affiliates is barely starting to tickle awareness of its existence. By the end of the year (2009) it will be a major force. In 2010 and 2011 it will be a tornado tearing down the wealth of the nation, blowing away the wealth of the middle classes and more.

It will be late in 2012 before we can step back and even begin to survey the damage, two years to try and clear the wreckage, an average after one of these events of an additional 5 years to recover beyond that.

It may well be 2013 or 2014 before a realistic evaluation can be made of what kind of Recession or Depression this is. For now we should all consider that it will be far worse than our personal experiences can imagine and try to prepare accordingly.

---------Dusty.]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 09:35:25 -0400
The current state of the economy is also not even close to where it is going. The housing-driven crash of Subprime that brought us to where we are now is only a prologue.

The housing-driven crash of Alt-A and its affiliates is barely starting to tickle awareness of its existence. By the end of the year (2009) it will be a major force. In 2010 and 2011 it will be a tornado tearing down the wealth of the nation, blowing away the wealth of the middle classes and more.

It will be late in 2012 before we can step back and even begin to survey the damage, two years to try and clear the wreckage, an average after one of these events of an additional 5 years to recover beyond that.

It may well be 2013 or 2014 before a realistic evaluation can be made of what kind of Recession or Depression this is. For now we should all consider that it will be far worse than our personal experiences can imagine and try to prepare accordingly.

---------Dusty.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136883-are-we-at-a-tipping-point?source=feed#comment-499964 499964
The time now between March and maybe October, maybe just late August 2009, is an intermission. It is a lot like the summer of 2008 which was also an intermission. When the real events begin again the Markets and economy will be even worse than has been seen before and will last twice as long.

The CSMR Chart shows a 'bump' for March 2009. The Market anticipates, that was the crash seen in February and early March. There is a bigger 'bump' coming in late fall, probably October through Thanksgiving. That jolt should hit in September and maybe there will be time to catch a quick breath at "The Holiday Season," maybe not. By February of 2010 the real nightmare will be underway. It is already beginning; it just goes into overdrive in early 2010.

Subprime was entry level and low-income housing. The next part is Alt-A, Agency Resets, more residential resets, and Commercial Real Estate which is not even on the chart. Add credit card defaults which are already a serious problem and getting worse. The significance of the Alt-A and Agency Resets is that they represent the mainstream of wealth in America. As the economy shrinks the upper middle class, the middle age population and business owners are going to have to come up with serious money just as the cash in the economy disappears. It is a trapdoor opening under America's wealth and the opening will rapidly get even bigger until the early winter of 2011. Then there will be a slight drop off as the hole beneath America's money just barely begins to close up again. Hitting yourself on the head with a hammer is bad. Switching to a smaller hammer is not an improvement.

It will end about September 2012. Earlier CSMR Charts showed an end in the spring of 2012. Government programs and efforts have caused a slippage of a few months. Recovery analysis that I have seen that is believable indicates two years to regain footing and then five years to climb up out of the hole, if all goes well.

Allowing for the anticipation in the Markets, "The" bottom should be Valentine's Day to Easter, 2012. No promises.

A Happy New Year's 2020 to all of you!!!

]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 04:07:02 -0400
The time now between March and maybe October, maybe just late August 2009, is an intermission. It is a lot like the summer of 2008 which was also an intermission. When the real events begin again the Markets and economy will be even worse than has been seen before and will last twice as long.

The CSMR Chart shows a 'bump' for March 2009. The Market anticipates, that was the crash seen in February and early March. There is a bigger 'bump' coming in late fall, probably October through Thanksgiving. That jolt should hit in September and maybe there will be time to catch a quick breath at "The Holiday Season," maybe not. By February of 2010 the real nightmare will be underway. It is already beginning; it just goes into overdrive in early 2010.

Subprime was entry level and low-income housing. The next part is Alt-A, Agency Resets, more residential resets, and Commercial Real Estate which is not even on the chart. Add credit card defaults which are already a serious problem and getting worse. The significance of the Alt-A and Agency Resets is that they represent the mainstream of wealth in America. As the economy shrinks the upper middle class, the middle age population and business owners are going to have to come up with serious money just as the cash in the economy disappears. It is a trapdoor opening under America's wealth and the opening will rapidly get even bigger until the early winter of 2011. Then there will be a slight drop off as the hole beneath America's money just barely begins to close up again. Hitting yourself on the head with a hammer is bad. Switching to a smaller hammer is not an improvement.

It will end about September 2012. Earlier CSMR Charts showed an end in the spring of 2012. Government programs and efforts have caused a slippage of a few months. Recovery analysis that I have seen that is believable indicates two years to regain footing and then five years to climb up out of the hole, if all goes well.

Allowing for the anticipation in the Markets, "The" bottom should be Valentine's Day to Easter, 2012. No promises.

A Happy New Year's 2020 to all of you!!!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133406-when-countries-go-to-zero?source=feed#comment-482125 482125
If you want to look at the probabilities of war and other violence, look at Sigma Plus One and Sigma Minus One, Two and Three. That group is the working class and the anti-intellectuals. It totals about 85% of the population. That 85% is busy arming itself to the teeth. Its basic values are the words and ideas of the American Constitution as that document was originally written.

I hope that you intellectuals fix the big problems before the temperature of the rest of the population reaches the boiling point. I think the pot is already too hot to touch.

------------Dusty.]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 04:21:32 -0400
If you want to look at the probabilities of war and other violence, look at Sigma Plus One and Sigma Minus One, Two and Three. That group is the working class and the anti-intellectuals. It totals about 85% of the population. That 85% is busy arming itself to the teeth. Its basic values are the words and ideas of the American Constitution as that document was originally written.

I hope that you intellectuals fix the big problems before the temperature of the rest of the population reaches the boiling point. I think the pot is already too hot to touch.

------------Dusty.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131614-lithium-batteries-nothing-but-illusion?source=feed#comment-470651 470651 Tue, 21 Apr 2009 01:52:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121920-tar-sands-how-much-is-out-there-and-can-nuclear-help?source=feed#comment-401018 401018
More recently a move has occured in which Thorium has become a major player in nuclear power. Apparently Thorium based nuclear does not have many of the drawbacks of uranium and plutonium during primary power generation operation and does not have nearly the long-term problems of residual waste that uranium and plutonium do.

The "reactor in a box" uses Thorium because it does behave better and is much easier to operate. Thorium is apparently much more plentiful and easier to extract.

All this is an impression gained from reading in many of these forums. It may be reasonably valid or may suffer from biases and agendas of original sources. DIIK. Things to consider, be aware of, evaluate.]]> Tue, 24 Feb 2009 05:30:51 -0500
More recently a move has occured in which Thorium has become a major player in nuclear power. Apparently Thorium based nuclear does not have many of the drawbacks of uranium and plutonium during primary power generation operation and does not have nearly the long-term problems of residual waste that uranium and plutonium do.

The "reactor in a box" uses Thorium because it does behave better and is much easier to operate. Thorium is apparently much more plentiful and easier to extract.

All this is an impression gained from reading in many of these forums. It may be reasonably valid or may suffer from biases and agendas of original sources. DIIK. Things to consider, be aware of, evaluate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121753-scary-numbers?source=feed#comment-398064 398064
This is from the the Market reaction to the next bump on the trail; there is a bigger one due in the fall. The real mountain crossing starts with calendar 2010 and will take more than two years (30 months). The first trek across the peaks (2007-2008) took 18 months.

If this week is the anticipation of the mortgage resets for March, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 may hold for awhile. A slight recovery and a lot of volatility until the leaves begin to turn to their autumn hues.

Beyond that, maybe we all need to research how our parents, grandparents, nation really endured through the 1930's.



]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 18:01:38 -0500
This is from the the Market reaction to the next bump on the trail; there is a bigger one due in the fall. The real mountain crossing starts with calendar 2010 and will take more than two years (30 months). The first trek across the peaks (2007-2008) took 18 months.

If this week is the anticipation of the mortgage resets for March, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 may hold for awhile. A slight recovery and a lot of volatility until the leaves begin to turn to their autumn hues.

Beyond that, maybe we all need to research how our parents, grandparents, nation really endured through the 1930's.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119028-watch-bank-of-america-to-understand-where-economy-is-going?source=feed#comment-380437 380437
Now the credit card balances, soon the derivatives, then the Alt-A and other ARM mortgages will all come home.

What has occured so far, inclusive, is equivalent to the spring of 2008. Calendar 2009 will compare with the summer of 2008. Fall and winter is on the way, calendar 2010 and 2011 and some of 2012. Thirty consecutive months.

Let us see who or what survives. It will very likely be a new world by 2015.

BAC and others do not need to be nationalized. Having the US Government as a majority shareholder with major representation on the board might be enough and easier to back out of by 2020.]]> Sun, 08 Feb 2009 22:58:43 -0500
Now the credit card balances, soon the derivatives, then the Alt-A and other ARM mortgages will all come home.

What has occured so far, inclusive, is equivalent to the spring of 2008. Calendar 2009 will compare with the summer of 2008. Fall and winter is on the way, calendar 2010 and 2011 and some of 2012. Thirty consecutive months.

Let us see who or what survives. It will very likely be a new world by 2015.

BAC and others do not need to be nationalized. Having the US Government as a majority shareholder with major representation on the board might be enough and easier to back out of by 2020.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117756-the-hopefully-not-so-great-next-depression?source=feed#comment-372740 372740
White Wine and Brie? Great! But before you speak about the real world try going out and spending at least a half-decade working hard enough to develop real body strength and a lot of calluses with the clear understanding that if you do wrong in any way you will starve for lack of a paycheck and probably end in a jail for just being in a hopeless situation. We need to amend the Constitution to require that anyone elected to office have at least this much history of having had to work really hard in a miserable job.

How long and how deep will this Depression be? Refer to a chart called "Credit Suisse Mortgage Resets" originally published in the fall of 2007. Phase One of this mess started in perhaps August 2007 and ran to about Christmas 2008. The calendar year 2009 is a big Phase Two Bear Trap. There will be a nasty hole on the path in the middle spring, another worse one in the middle fall, but the trend of the year looks manageable just like any other Bear Trap. Phase Three, "Alt-A" and "Agency Resets" will kick in right after New Year 2010. That will look like the worst that happened in 2008, except that it will continue with a slight increase in intensity straight through into late spring 2012. There is not enough money or enough lies on the planet to get us through all that without a lot of serious scars. While the principal causes of the nightmare will be over by summer 2012, rebuilding to the level of an evening of conversation with White Wine and Brie is very likely to take well into the twenty-teens. Maybe longer because of having to clean up the messes left here and there by those incoming warheads.]]> Sun, 01 Feb 2009 17:38:09 -0500
White Wine and Brie? Great! But before you speak about the real world try going out and spending at least a half-decade working hard enough to develop real body strength and a lot of calluses with the clear understanding that if you do wrong in any way you will starve for lack of a paycheck and probably end in a jail for just being in a hopeless situation. We need to amend the Constitution to require that anyone elected to office have at least this much history of having had to work really hard in a miserable job.

How long and how deep will this Depression be? Refer to a chart called "Credit Suisse Mortgage Resets" originally published in the fall of 2007. Phase One of this mess started in perhaps August 2007 and ran to about Christmas 2008. The calendar year 2009 is a big Phase Two Bear Trap. There will be a nasty hole on the path in the middle spring, another worse one in the middle fall, but the trend of the year looks manageable just like any other Bear Trap. Phase Three, "Alt-A" and "Agency Resets" will kick in right after New Year 2010. That will look like the worst that happened in 2008, except that it will continue with a slight increase in intensity straight through into late spring 2012. There is not enough money or enough lies on the planet to get us through all that without a lot of serious scars. While the principal causes of the nightmare will be over by summer 2012, rebuilding to the level of an evening of conversation with White Wine and Brie is very likely to take well into the twenty-teens. Maybe longer because of having to clean up the messes left here and there by those incoming warheads.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110482-what-is-the-new-s-p-normal?source=feed#comment-328459 328459 Sat, 13 Dec 2008 17:02:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98979-the-burst-commodities-bubble?source=feed#comment-276548 276548
We are in deep water and fast currents but it is partly illusion. The Credit Suisse Chart of Mortgage Resets shows the flight plan. Right now every day is worse than yesterday and the water goes down into the stygian dark depths. But the water is not as deep as it seems. The flight plan says we are almost halfway through this Fall Nightmare. The Market Crash scheduled for August 14 took until the end of September to happen; it will all be better than expected because the chaos was held off by the strength of the overall economy for a lot longer than the Fates expected. The Powers-That-Be are working hard at doing their thing. Two more weeks to November; then we will not be safe quite yet but there will be some sense of solid bottom and we will be able to begin resuming breathing.

There may or may not be a Christmas gift, but certainly a Chinese (Lunar) New Year's gift. The flight plan says by then it will be back to much like this past mid-summer with no more mountains to cross. If the big boys will just behave for awhile, it will be a rough road for a very long time but it will be over. Now and for the next week or two is probably the best time for (us) little guys to glom onto some cheap (affordable) stuff before the stock prices turn into helium balloons again.]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 06:19:40 -0400
We are in deep water and fast currents but it is partly illusion. The Credit Suisse Chart of Mortgage Resets shows the flight plan. Right now every day is worse than yesterday and the water goes down into the stygian dark depths. But the water is not as deep as it seems. The flight plan says we are almost halfway through this Fall Nightmare. The Market Crash scheduled for August 14 took until the end of September to happen; it will all be better than expected because the chaos was held off by the strength of the overall economy for a lot longer than the Fates expected. The Powers-That-Be are working hard at doing their thing. Two more weeks to November; then we will not be safe quite yet but there will be some sense of solid bottom and we will be able to begin resuming breathing.

There may or may not be a Christmas gift, but certainly a Chinese (Lunar) New Year's gift. The flight plan says by then it will be back to much like this past mid-summer with no more mountains to cross. If the big boys will just behave for awhile, it will be a rough road for a very long time but it will be over. Now and for the next week or two is probably the best time for (us) little guys to glom onto some cheap (affordable) stuff before the stock prices turn into helium balloons again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92342-a-quick-review-of-i-o-u-s-a?source=feed#comment-237827 237827
At work, just before I retired, the hatred that I had no credit card debt, no rent or mortgage, money in the bank, came oozing out of everyone's pores; dripping down the walls; washing up out of the floor like swamp water. America lives in Denial and exults in misery relating to money problems. Almost everyone works hard to stay in economic trouble; it has become the standard culture.

A quick look at the Standard Statistical Curve will refresh memory that about 85% of any population is the 'mainstream.' The next 14% is guiding or supervising; 1% or 2% is the leaders. I.O.U.S.A. did mention that our leadership is totally lacking. As a reader of this, you are a part of the 14%. You might be able to cause change in the greed of the actual leadership that would cause them to want America to become savers and achievers like the Chinese and most other Asians because the leadership will gain the most if our culture changes to that standard. If we do not change, then very soon, maybe much sooner than anyone can imagine, we will be unable to obtain the materials, goods, medicines, food-- that come from the rest of the world. Our money will be useless, no one will feed our debt. Then it will not be O.K. until 70% of Americans have died of starvation and disease. A very small surviving population might have enough internal resource to begin to build a new 'dream.'

Even Warren, with all his money, might find that he is not permitted to relocate or even visit outside our borders because all Americans will be pariahs; and note that that money by itself is not nutritious nor does it have any medicinal qualities. ]]> Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:52:53 -0400
At work, just before I retired, the hatred that I had no credit card debt, no rent or mortgage, money in the bank, came oozing out of everyone's pores; dripping down the walls; washing up out of the floor like swamp water. America lives in Denial and exults in misery relating to money problems. Almost everyone works hard to stay in economic trouble; it has become the standard culture.

A quick look at the Standard Statistical Curve will refresh memory that about 85% of any population is the 'mainstream.' The next 14% is guiding or supervising; 1% or 2% is the leaders. I.O.U.S.A. did mention that our leadership is totally lacking. As a reader of this, you are a part of the 14%. You might be able to cause change in the greed of the actual leadership that would cause them to want America to become savers and achievers like the Chinese and most other Asians because the leadership will gain the most if our culture changes to that standard. If we do not change, then very soon, maybe much sooner than anyone can imagine, we will be unable to obtain the materials, goods, medicines, food-- that come from the rest of the world. Our money will be useless, no one will feed our debt. Then it will not be O.K. until 70% of Americans have died of starvation and disease. A very small surviving population might have enough internal resource to begin to build a new 'dream.'

Even Warren, with all his money, might find that he is not permitted to relocate or even visit outside our borders because all Americans will be pariahs; and note that that money by itself is not nutritious nor does it have any medicinal qualities. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87560-who-8217-s-really-getting-bailed-out-here?source=feed#comment-217127 217127 Tue, 29 Jul 2008 04:42:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86718-financials-have-bottomed-readers-say-we-re-nuts?source=feed#comment-213051 213051
Market bottom best guess as a Chinese New Year gift but there will not be any real Bull Recovery for two or three years. Target Summer of 2012 for the beginning of really better times.

Game plan is to do what presents itself in short time frames and also look at dividend accumulation.]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 07:42:10 -0400
Market bottom best guess as a Chinese New Year gift but there will not be any real Bull Recovery for two or three years. Target Summer of 2012 for the beginning of really better times.

Game plan is to do what presents itself in short time frames and also look at dividend accumulation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86654-bank-of-america-buyback-announcement-who-cares?source=feed#comment-213004 213004
Before all of you start telling me how stupid I am or how everything I am doing is wrong, listen to my "strategy."

Chuck holes in the market come and go. Bear Markets come and go. "Unrealized P&L's" are mind games. All that matters is the cash of the dividends and at the moment I have a little more income than needed to pay the bills. For now the dividends get reinvested. I am trying to prepare for eventual problems.

If BAC and some others survive this mess then all is well. That is even if some dividends are reduced or even stopped for a while and then resumed. I do the best I can with the information available to me (necessarily mostly what I can find for free). FWIW, my dividend stream is currently averaging 8.20% of my initial investment. If any of the positions ends in a bankruptcy or compete shutdown kind of failure, I have a tax write-off.

My bottom line is that I feel insulted by the offer BAC made.]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 05:32:01 -0400
Before all of you start telling me how stupid I am or how everything I am doing is wrong, listen to my "strategy."

Chuck holes in the market come and go. Bear Markets come and go. "Unrealized P&L's" are mind games. All that matters is the cash of the dividends and at the moment I have a little more income than needed to pay the bills. For now the dividends get reinvested. I am trying to prepare for eventual problems.

If BAC and some others survive this mess then all is well. That is even if some dividends are reduced or even stopped for a while and then resumed. I do the best I can with the information available to me (necessarily mostly what I can find for free). FWIW, my dividend stream is currently averaging 8.20% of my initial investment. If any of the positions ends in a bankruptcy or compete shutdown kind of failure, I have a tax write-off.

My bottom line is that I feel insulted by the offer BAC made.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85669-historic-financial-collapse-underway?source=feed#comment-210335 210335 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 04:40:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85375-old-dominion-booms-as-truckers-bust?source=feed#comment-207465 207465
Small companies and the independent owner-operator are being eliminated. This will result in economies of scale and de-facto monopolies. Far too many changes in the landscape to even begin mentioning.

The current energy crisis will move the process a lot. Investors, whether individuals or institutional managers, will have to watch events very carefully and try to pick out the best times to put money into the right places.

It may be as much fun as in the early 1900's trying to decide which buggy-whip makers were going to survive by shifting to become car-parts suppliers and which of all the new auto builders were still going to be around after a few years.]]> Thu, 17 Jul 2008 04:59:47 -0400
Small companies and the independent owner-operator are being eliminated. This will result in economies of scale and de-facto monopolies. Far too many changes in the landscape to even begin mentioning.

The current energy crisis will move the process a lot. Investors, whether individuals or institutional managers, will have to watch events very carefully and try to pick out the best times to put money into the right places.

It may be as much fun as in the early 1900's trying to decide which buggy-whip makers were going to survive by shifting to become car-parts suppliers and which of all the new auto builders were still going to be around after a few years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84770-housing-barron-s-calls-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-206047 206047
It all started in November from a significant high. Phase two is about to commence from a serious low. It will be very interesting to see how far down it can go by, say, Chinese New Year. Then it will still have a long way to go before the mortgage mess is actually "over."

Our economy has actually never recoverd from the Telecom Crash. It has just been riding the Housing Bubble. YYZ (above) reminded us that it took Canada five years to recover in the '90's. It could take the US ten or more, there is a lot more to fix. Add 10 to 2012 and the clear start of the recovery is in (gulp!) 2025? ]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:38:30 -0400
It all started in November from a significant high. Phase two is about to commence from a serious low. It will be very interesting to see how far down it can go by, say, Chinese New Year. Then it will still have a long way to go before the mortgage mess is actually "over."

Our economy has actually never recoverd from the Telecom Crash. It has just been riding the Housing Bubble. YYZ (above) reminded us that it took Canada five years to recover in the '90's. It could take the US ten or more, there is a lot more to fix. Add 10 to 2012 and the clear start of the recovery is in (gulp!) 2025? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83085-the-mauling-of-the-dow?source=feed#comment-195648 195648
"How bad is it going to get?" is easy. Repeat the 1st and 2nd quarters of this year except start from our current lows instead of the levels of last October and part of November. We have a "Hindenburg" indicator and several other things telling of a serious drop. Mortgage Resets (Credit Suisse) by Alt-A and Agency Resets will generate as many or more foreclosures in the Fall as in the Spring. Job layoffs and business bankruptcies and small businesses just closing doors should skyrocket because of inflation and consumers with no money or afraid to spend on more than minimum essentials. Look for the January equivalent drop in August, then that long bumpy downhill slide to somewhere in the late winter. Should be very interesting about Election Day time.

Sell stocks? Maybe do whatever Mr Faber had in mind by his use of the word "Tactical." I am trying to move into securities that have a global footprint and preferably are based in other countries and other currencies and hopefully that pay some dividends. Worst case, those dividend payments might be the only real money available to hand. Check out Zimbabwe.]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 01:37:03 -0400
"How bad is it going to get?" is easy. Repeat the 1st and 2nd quarters of this year except start from our current lows instead of the levels of last October and part of November. We have a "Hindenburg" indicator and several other things telling of a serious drop. Mortgage Resets (Credit Suisse) by Alt-A and Agency Resets will generate as many or more foreclosures in the Fall as in the Spring. Job layoffs and business bankruptcies and small businesses just closing doors should skyrocket because of inflation and consumers with no money or afraid to spend on more than minimum essentials. Look for the January equivalent drop in August, then that long bumpy downhill slide to somewhere in the late winter. Should be very interesting about Election Day time.

Sell stocks? Maybe do whatever Mr Faber had in mind by his use of the word "Tactical." I am trying to move into securities that have a global footprint and preferably are based in other countries and other currencies and hopefully that pay some dividends. Worst case, those dividend payments might be the only real money available to hand. Check out Zimbabwe.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82094-double-bottom-forming-or-just-a-pit-stop-on-the-way-down?source=feed#comment-190007 190007
What is scary is that the Genie may have it together. I am holding what cash I can. ]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 08:17:58 -0400
What is scary is that the Genie may have it together. I am holding what cash I can. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82116-mail-delivery-as-economic-bellwether?source=feed#comment-189589 189589 Sat, 21 Jun 2008 03:57:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81030-weyerhaeuser-returning-to-its-roots?source=feed#comment-187486 187486 Wed, 18 Jun 2008 05:04:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81606-rubinomics-is-back-part-two?source=feed#comment-187445 187445 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 23:41:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81339-a-closer-look-at-the-impact-of-higher-gasoline-prices-on-driving?source=feed#comment-185985 185985 Sun, 15 Jun 2008 15:15:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80568-preparing-for-the-fall-part-ii?source=feed#comment-182766 182766 Tue, 10 Jun 2008 15:31:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80013-bank-of-america-the-most-popular-dividend-in-america?source=feed#comment-180189 180189
And, Eagle-Chief, I mostly agree about gambling. I do think that with care and a little luck, dividends and a very small overall capital gain can be managed that will generate a better return than interest on most savings will. It is not about getting rich but rather a best shot at survival.]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:46:00 -0400
And, Eagle-Chief, I mostly agree about gambling. I do think that with care and a little luck, dividends and a very small overall capital gain can be managed that will generate a better return than interest on most savings will. It is not about getting rich but rather a best shot at survival.]]>