Dusty

Prime Mortgages Are Also Going Sour

It is all in the Credit Suisse Mortgage Resets Charts. 'Subprime' is effectively over except for the crying and gnashing of teeth part.

The 'Alt-A' and 'Agency' and several other middle class and upper middle class kinds of adjustable real estate loans are only beginning to falter. 'Subprime' was almost a flash in the pan compared to what is just barely started in the Real Estate markets.

"Winter" this year should come early. If there is not a replay of 2008 this fall it is only because of the Federal programs that have pushed and stretched the financial environment like a chart drawn on the side of a rubber balloon. Nothing really changes, there is just a distortion in the lines. This will be a very long 'winter.'

This next phase of the Real Estate collapse will peak in February of 2012. By Christmas of 2013 most of us will be beginning to realize that it is under control but not 'over.' The most believable estimates I have seen say good stabilization by 2017 or maybe into 2018 and decent recovery so that there is a semblance of the new "Normal" by 2025.

That new "Normal" will encompass changes far beyond any ability to forecast or imagine because of the events about to happen in this Depression.