you_can_call_me_Al's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/206080/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/99424-this-isn-t-a-bottom-it-s-a-disturbance-in-the-force?source=feed#comment-279353 279353 ]]> Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:52:37 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99325-this-bear-market-is-worse-than-i-thought?source=feed#comment-278564 278564
Good luck with holding.]]> Fri, 10 Oct 2008 06:59:24 -0400
Good luck with holding.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99300-there-s-light-at-the-end-of-this-tunnel?source=feed#comment-278539 278539
I think you're spot on with the impending opportunity. We are almost certainly due for a snap back upwards. The problem, of course, is timing it. When it comes, it will probably come quickly. Move in too soon, and, well... it could cost you. Two days ago, there were plenty of folks screaming "this is it" and "shorts are idiots." Today, those people are down around seven percent (annualize THAT, suckers).

Yeah, there's probably a short term rally coming, and it will be a great way to make some quick cash if you can get the timing right. Dangerous, but, wow, you gotta try. Those of you thinking about how very obvious it all is... a little humility, please. None of us really know diddly.]]> Fri, 10 Oct 2008 04:42:29 -0400
I think you're spot on with the impending opportunity. We are almost certainly due for a snap back upwards. The problem, of course, is timing it. When it comes, it will probably come quickly. Move in too soon, and, well... it could cost you. Two days ago, there were plenty of folks screaming "this is it" and "shorts are idiots." Today, those people are down around seven percent (annualize THAT, suckers).

Yeah, there's probably a short term rally coming, and it will be a great way to make some quick cash if you can get the timing right. Dangerous, but, wow, you gotta try. Those of you thinking about how very obvious it all is... a little humility, please. None of us really know diddly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98312-congress-economic-literacy-or-lack-thereof?source=feed#comment-271932 271932 Thu, 02 Oct 2008 15:30:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97901-a-bad-day-yes-but-enough-with-the-hyperbole?source=feed#comment-269318 269318 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 02:42:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97122-5-ways-to-diversify-away-from-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-263342 263342
Couldn't agree more about the world's unwillingness to lend us money at such ridiculously low rates. My God. Of course they'll get paid back, but in dollars that have a hell of a lot less purchasing power than the one's we're using today. Gee, do you think Chinese economists understand that? I'm kinda guessing they do.]]> Wed, 24 Sep 2008 08:57:10 -0400
Couldn't agree more about the world's unwillingness to lend us money at such ridiculously low rates. My God. Of course they'll get paid back, but in dollars that have a hell of a lot less purchasing power than the one's we're using today. Gee, do you think Chinese economists understand that? I'm kinda guessing they do.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96723-what-effect-will-hyperinflation-have?source=feed#comment-261820 261820
China, while definitely destined to eat our lunch, is not going to be rebuilding the world. They, instead, produce cheap toys and Nike knockoffs. They sell us all that crap we like to buy. In a true meltdown, if it happens, no one is going to be running out to buy the latest Ipod (or anything else). Business will suck for everyone, though I do admit they would be a lot better off than the U.S.

glta.]]> Mon, 22 Sep 2008 15:58:51 -0400
China, while definitely destined to eat our lunch, is not going to be rebuilding the world. They, instead, produce cheap toys and Nike knockoffs. They sell us all that crap we like to buy. In a true meltdown, if it happens, no one is going to be running out to buy the latest Ipod (or anything else). Business will suck for everyone, though I do admit they would be a lot better off than the U.S.

glta.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96740-details-of-the-financial-bailout-package?source=feed#comment-261779 261779 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 15:22:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96403-a-paulson-fan-s-view-of-the-u-s-mortgage-company?source=feed#comment-260515 260515
On the upside, we, the taxpayers, actually stand to make out pretty well. First of all, Wall Street probably won't melt down now, and you guys won't lose your jobs. Most of you are in "unrelated" professions, but following that melt down, you'd probably still be hurting ...bad. No credit, no loans. No loans, no businesses. No businesses, no employees. No employees, no customers. No customers, no jobs, etc.... There's some hyperbole here, I know, but not much. This thing was a big shit sandwich, and we all would have had to take a bite.

Second, these "bailouts" were more akin to vulture capital. AIG, for example, basically just needed a bridge loan so they could make some short term payments. After that, they'd be able to sell some assets to pay off their bad bets. The short term money crunch threatened to destroy them. So Paulson, like any good Wall Street shark, gutted them. "Here's a relatively small loan at a very high interest rate, plus, oh yeah, 80% of everything you own." They were dying, so he robbed AND raped them, and they had to thank him for it. ...And you're complaining. Jesus.

The key to this whole thing was time. Someone with skads of cash (like the U.S. government) and no time pressure stood to make tons, and Paulson recognized it. Make this guy king. At this rate he wouldn't need taxes in five years, and in ten the government would be paying you dividends.

He saved our asses. Get the man a medal.]]> Sun, 21 Sep 2008 08:21:00 -0400
On the upside, we, the taxpayers, actually stand to make out pretty well. First of all, Wall Street probably won't melt down now, and you guys won't lose your jobs. Most of you are in "unrelated" professions, but following that melt down, you'd probably still be hurting ...bad. No credit, no loans. No loans, no businesses. No businesses, no employees. No employees, no customers. No customers, no jobs, etc.... There's some hyperbole here, I know, but not much. This thing was a big shit sandwich, and we all would have had to take a bite.

Second, these "bailouts" were more akin to vulture capital. AIG, for example, basically just needed a bridge loan so they could make some short term payments. After that, they'd be able to sell some assets to pay off their bad bets. The short term money crunch threatened to destroy them. So Paulson, like any good Wall Street shark, gutted them. "Here's a relatively small loan at a very high interest rate, plus, oh yeah, 80% of everything you own." They were dying, so he robbed AND raped them, and they had to thank him for it. ...And you're complaining. Jesus.

The key to this whole thing was time. Someone with skads of cash (like the U.S. government) and no time pressure stood to make tons, and Paulson recognized it. Make this guy king. At this rate he wouldn't need taxes in five years, and in ten the government would be paying you dividends.

He saved our asses. Get the man a medal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96121-an-end-to-efficient-market-theory?source=feed#comment-258221 258221
Yes, I'll be missing the bounce, but there's no way to know when that will start or where it will stop. Since the long term trend seems pretty clear, it's time to develop some patience.

Take a look at the historic actions taken by the Fed, then ask yourself if you really think your being on the sidelines will cause you to miss out on the next bull market. I think not.

]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:01:37 -0400
Yes, I'll be missing the bounce, but there's no way to know when that will start or where it will stop. Since the long term trend seems pretty clear, it's time to develop some patience.

Take a look at the historic actions taken by the Fed, then ask yourself if you really think your being on the sidelines will cause you to miss out on the next bull market. I think not.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95572-lehman-bankrupt-merrill-swallowed-aig-wilting-what-it-all-means?source=feed#comment-255238 255238 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 16:35:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95572-lehman-bankrupt-merrill-swallowed-aig-wilting-what-it-all-means?source=feed#comment-255223 255223
2) Crude hit a low because the economy is tanking. Lowering a price from "totally unaffordable" does not make it cheap.

3) The current PE depends on the P AND the E. 14X is still high by historical standards, and if you don't believe the earnings will hold (and I don't), then it's really a higher ratio than you think.

4) The economy is not growing at a 3.3% clip. The number is complete, well, ...bullshit. They used a fictitious inflation number. If you really think the economy is growing that robustly, then maybe you should look out of a window.

5) The dollar is not rebounding against other currencies, they are falling to our level because their economies are also slowing (that's bad for us). Having everyone fall down after you doesn't mean you got back up.

A recovery will come (oh sorry, I forgot we're not in a recession), but that requires business expansion, which requires loans, which requires that most members of your financial sector not be fighting for their survival. The recovery will come, but it will be awhile.

Think about it. Fannie and Freddie have effectively been nationalized, 100+ year old firms are going belly up, housing continues to fall, the Fed is low on dry powder, we're still involved in two expensive wars, the global economy is slowing (not bottomed, SLOWING), consumers are in debt up to their eyeballs, and, most importantly, the financial firms that fuel recoveries DON'T HAVE ANY CASH.

We are not close to the bottom. Hate to sound negative here, but please. Just because everyone knows something is obvious doesn't mean they're wrong.]]> Mon, 15 Sep 2008 16:23:31 -0400
2) Crude hit a low because the economy is tanking. Lowering a price from "totally unaffordable" does not make it cheap.

3) The current PE depends on the P AND the E. 14X is still high by historical standards, and if you don't believe the earnings will hold (and I don't), then it's really a higher ratio than you think.

4) The economy is not growing at a 3.3% clip. The number is complete, well, ...bullshit. They used a fictitious inflation number. If you really think the economy is growing that robustly, then maybe you should look out of a window.

5) The dollar is not rebounding against other currencies, they are falling to our level because their economies are also slowing (that's bad for us). Having everyone fall down after you doesn't mean you got back up.

A recovery will come (oh sorry, I forgot we're not in a recession), but that requires business expansion, which requires loans, which requires that most members of your financial sector not be fighting for their survival. The recovery will come, but it will be awhile.

Think about it. Fannie and Freddie have effectively been nationalized, 100+ year old firms are going belly up, housing continues to fall, the Fed is low on dry powder, we're still involved in two expensive wars, the global economy is slowing (not bottomed, SLOWING), consumers are in debt up to their eyeballs, and, most importantly, the financial firms that fuel recoveries DON'T HAVE ANY CASH.

We are not close to the bottom. Hate to sound negative here, but please. Just because everyone knows something is obvious doesn't mean they're wrong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95264-an-optimist-looks-at-the-market?source=feed#comment-254002 254002
Just because everyone believes something doesn't mean it isn't true.]]> Sun, 14 Sep 2008 11:17:41 -0400
Just because everyone believes something doesn't mean it isn't true.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95046-joy-global-waiting-for-hedge-funds-to-finish-dumping?source=feed#comment-251784 251784 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 13:19:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94417-investors-down-the-rabbit-hole?source=feed#comment-248398 248398 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:46:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94128-toyota-s-view-of-the-future?source=feed#comment-246711 246711
Now for the good part, cheap prices will act to increase demand as mentioned above, but to some extent the genie is out of the bottle. Americans are likely to shy away from guzzlers and are less likely to return to the totally profligate attitudes of, well ...the last fifty years. Offsetting this: 1) some people WILL return to those attitudes, and 2) declining global production as new finds fail to offset the weakening giants. The former will happen almost immediately, the latter in the next few years.

Where the right entry points sits boils down to some basic questions:
1) How quickly can auto makers get large numbers of alternative vehicles on the road? Alternative here means anything that doesn't use gasoline (NG, EV, dilithium crystals, ...who cares?).
2) When will the giants start to fall off in earnest? Cantarell is in free fall. If the others follow its example (not likely) then we're in for a very big spike indeed. Most likely, they will fall off more slowly, but it's still a big problem.
3) Finally, at what point will EXPORTS fall? As declining giants become common knowledge, oil producing countries will be less willing to sell their resources than before, and the price per unit demand will rise. This last point is seldom recognized.

There's no doubt that there's some corruption in the commodities markets (duh), but its existence does not negate the underlying forces. It merely exacerbates them. If/when these people are discovered, it would be a mistake to then assume that the oil problem is "solved." Look forward to one more spike in the next few years before alternative vehicles are produced in earnest. That one will probably be worse, but at least the problem will get solved once and for all. Congress, alternative vehicles are the answer, suing OPEC is not.]]> Sat, 06 Sep 2008 00:21:29 -0400
Now for the good part, cheap prices will act to increase demand as mentioned above, but to some extent the genie is out of the bottle. Americans are likely to shy away from guzzlers and are less likely to return to the totally profligate attitudes of, well ...the last fifty years. Offsetting this: 1) some people WILL return to those attitudes, and 2) declining global production as new finds fail to offset the weakening giants. The former will happen almost immediately, the latter in the next few years.

Where the right entry points sits boils down to some basic questions:
1) How quickly can auto makers get large numbers of alternative vehicles on the road? Alternative here means anything that doesn't use gasoline (NG, EV, dilithium crystals, ...who cares?).
2) When will the giants start to fall off in earnest? Cantarell is in free fall. If the others follow its example (not likely) then we're in for a very big spike indeed. Most likely, they will fall off more slowly, but it's still a big problem.
3) Finally, at what point will EXPORTS fall? As declining giants become common knowledge, oil producing countries will be less willing to sell their resources than before, and the price per unit demand will rise. This last point is seldom recognized.

There's no doubt that there's some corruption in the commodities markets (duh), but its existence does not negate the underlying forces. It merely exacerbates them. If/when these people are discovered, it would be a mistake to then assume that the oil problem is "solved." Look forward to one more spike in the next few years before alternative vehicles are produced in earnest. That one will probably be worse, but at least the problem will get solved once and for all. Congress, alternative vehicles are the answer, suing OPEC is not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94122-in-this-environment-it-s-no-market-for-young-men?source=feed#comment-246283 246283
Keep your powder dry and your eyes open for a few weeks. I'm betting there will be a nice entry point in the next month or so if you want to put a toe in.]]> Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:40:00 -0400
Keep your powder dry and your eyes open for a few weeks. I'm betting there will be a nice entry point in the next month or so if you want to put a toe in.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93732-should-we-listen-to-boone-pickens-on-oil?source=feed#comment-245112 245112
Whether or not he's right will be shown in time, but his track record is pretty good. Let's talk again in 2014.]]> Thu, 04 Sep 2008 01:57:31 -0400
Whether or not he's right will be shown in time, but his track record is pretty good. Let's talk again in 2014.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93126-gdp-shows-economy-is-far-from-recession?source=feed#comment-241490 241490 Fri, 29 Aug 2008 09:03:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93126-gdp-shows-economy-is-far-from-recession?source=feed#comment-241387 241387
Government statistics (all statistics, for that matter) will routinely lean in the direction of the collector's personal bias whenever there's a component subject to personal judgment (e.g., like inflation). They typically push the envelope, but this one's a total whopper. Someone's got real nerve expecting us to believe this.]]> Fri, 29 Aug 2008 04:24:35 -0400
Government statistics (all statistics, for that matter) will routinely lean in the direction of the collector's personal bias whenever there's a component subject to personal judgment (e.g., like inflation). They typically push the envelope, but this one's a total whopper. Someone's got real nerve expecting us to believe this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91285-r-h-donnelley-an-attractive-bet-for-high-risk-investors-barron-s?source=feed#comment-235952 235952
Thanks in advance.]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:32:56 -0400
Thanks in advance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91954-will-crude-oil-break-100-barrel?source=feed#comment-235435 235435
Why can't CNBC also point out the obvious?]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:08:45 -0400
Why can't CNBC also point out the obvious?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91777-the-current-financial-crisis-100-year-storm?source=feed#comment-234840 234840
]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 11:47:22 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91137-don-t-believe-the-lies-ride-the-bank-stocks-bull?source=feed#comment-231154 231154 Top ranked analyst says the bottom is in.
The bottom is in.
The bottom is in.
The bottom is in.
Smart money is buying, because the bottom is in.

Please.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 11:00:09 -0400 Top ranked analyst says the bottom is in.
The bottom is in.
The bottom is in.
The bottom is in.
Smart money is buying, because the bottom is in.

Please.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30?source=feed#comment-230882 230882
Nitpicking aside, your point is well taken. Some adjusted driving habits in America don't mean we've stopped driving altogether, or that India and China can be ignored. Oil won't go to $30 until there are a helluva lot of electric cars on the road. That will be awhile.

$100 on the other hand....]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 06:38:33 -0400
Nitpicking aside, your point is well taken. Some adjusted driving habits in America don't mean we've stopped driving altogether, or that India and China can be ignored. Oil won't go to $30 until there are a helluva lot of electric cars on the road. That will be awhile.

$100 on the other hand....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89520-is-it-different-this-time?source=feed#comment-224474 224474
1) not all distributions are uniform, and

2) what a statistic is.

How does one prove that something "should behave as a statistic?" What does that even mean???

]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 17:29:34 -0400
1) not all distributions are uniform, and

2) what a statistic is.

How does one prove that something "should behave as a statistic?" What does that even mean???

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87734-oil-vs-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-218671 218671
If there's a grain of truth to this, then oil must inevitably decline.]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:25:58 -0400
If there's a grain of truth to this, then oil must inevitably decline.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87289-insiders-preparing-for-major-drop-in-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-216174 216174 Mon, 28 Jul 2008 00:43:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87034-crocs-crushes-the-bottom-feeders?source=feed#comment-214561 214561
What is now confusing is that no one has presented what should be the new short argument: management appears not to have a handle on their business.

You mentioned the size of the changes to estimates, but did not go nearly far enough. All the arguments about potential product demand can only go so far, and none of them are as important as management credibility. This is the second quarter in a row where shareholders have been blindsided. It's doubtful that professional money managers will be there for a third.]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:00:48 -0400
What is now confusing is that no one has presented what should be the new short argument: management appears not to have a handle on their business.

You mentioned the size of the changes to estimates, but did not go nearly far enough. All the arguments about potential product demand can only go so far, and none of them are as important as management credibility. This is the second quarter in a row where shareholders have been blindsided. It's doubtful that professional money managers will be there for a third.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86772-re-examining-my-american-capital-strategies-position?source=feed#comment-213208 213208
Why are they only willing to enforce the law for a handful of companies? Outrageous.]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:44:49 -0400
Why are they only willing to enforce the law for a handful of companies? Outrageous.]]>