you_can_call_me_Al

This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force

That Obi-wan quote pretty much sums it up.

This Bear Market is Worse Than I Thought

Don't feel too badly about getting caught unawares. NOBODY could have expected this kind of move downward. There are few precedents, and none of them were predictable.

Good luck with holding.

There's Light At the End Of This Tunnel

I almost wrote you off as being Polllyannish, but you roped me back in with "bear market rally."

I think you're spot on with the impending opportunity. We are almost certainly due for a snap back upwards. The problem, of course, is timing it. When it comes, it will probably come quickly. Move in too soon, and, well... it could cost you. Two days ago, there were plenty of folks screaming "this is it" and "shorts are idiots." Today, those people are down around seven percent (annualize THAT, suckers).

Yeah, there's probably a short term rally coming, and it will be a great way to make some quick cash if you can get the timing right. Dangerous, but, wow, you gotta try. Those of you thinking about how very obvious it all is... a little humility, please. None of us really know diddly.

Congress' Economic Literacy (Or Lack Thereof)

Is it true that the bill allows bailout money to go to properties held in other countries?

A Bad Day, Yes, But Enough with the Hyperbole

One thing that strikes me is the number of large 100+ year old institutions that have gone bust because of this thing. Is it a "crisis?" Not sure, but it is interesting to note that the firms that got taken out were able to survive the Depression. Don't know exactly where this is leading, but that does make me think.

What Effect Will Hyperinflation Have?

To those of you counting on China to be a safe port in any upcoming storms, think twice. After WWII the U.S. got rich because we were one of the few countries with an intact infrastructure. In addition, we had enormous natural resources. Both were used to basically rebuild the world, and we got paid for it.

China, while definitely destined to eat our lunch, is not going to be rebuilding the world. They, instead, produce cheap toys and Nike knockoffs. They sell us all that crap we like to buy. In a true meltdown, if it happens, no one is going to be running out to buy the latest Ipod (or anything else). Business will suck for everyone, though I do admit they would be a lot better off than the U.S.

glta.

Details of the Financial Bailout Package

It's LOSE damn it. God, that's even worse than "divident."

A Paulson Fan's View of the U.S. Mortgage Company

Wow, there are a lot of folks here who really have no idea how bad this thing could have been. Do you really think this is just about bailing out the old boy network? Folks, the entire financial network was sitting on quicksand. Paulson put a foundation under it, and yes, we're paying the upfront costs.

On the upside, we, the taxpayers, actually stand to make out pretty well. First of all, Wall Street probably won't melt down now, and you guys won't lose your jobs. Most of you are in "unrelated" professions, but following that melt down, you'd probably still be hurting ...bad. No credit, no loans. No loans, no businesses. No businesses, no employees. No employees, no customers. No customers, no jobs, etc.... There's some hyperbole here, I know, but not much. This thing was a big shit sandwich, and we all would have had to take a bite.

Second, these "bailouts" were more akin to vulture capital. AIG, for example, basically just needed a bridge loan so they could make some short term payments. After that, they'd be able to sell some assets to pay off their bad bets. The short term money crunch threatened to destroy them. So Paulson, like any good Wall Street shark, gutted them. "Here's a relatively small loan at a very high interest rate, plus, oh yeah, 80% of everything you own." They were dying, so he robbed AND raped them, and they had to thank him for it. ...And you're complaining. Jesus.

The key to this whole thing was time. Someone with skads of cash (like the U.S. government) and no time pressure stood to make tons, and Paulson recognized it. Make this guy king. At this rate he wouldn't need taxes in five years, and in ten the government would be paying you dividends.

He saved our asses. Get the man a medal.

An End to Efficient Market Theory

Agreed. It will be hard to watch the extraordinary bounce that's coming, but, yes, the cat is dead. Sometime in the next few months I'm expecting to see some real, honest-to-God panic, and I don't want to be anywhere near it when in happens.

Yes, I'll be missing the bounce, but there's no way to know when that will start or where it will stop. Since the long term trend seems pretty clear, it's time to develop some patience.

Take a look at the historic actions taken by the Fed, then ask yourself if you really think your being on the sidelines will cause you to miss out on the next bull market. I think not.

An Optimist Looks at the Market

To those of you who believe that now is the time to invest because everyone is fearful, you may want to think that through. It's true that everyone is pessimistic at the bottom of the market, but they're also pessimistic on the way down. That little fact escapes folks looking to make clever summations.

Just because everyone believes something doesn't mean it isn't true.

Investors: Down the Rabbit Hole

Why do you think anyone cares about you?

In This Environment, It's No Market for Young Men

I don't invest based on technical analysis, but it is something worth at least looking at before charging in guns blazing. It's impossible not to notice that the market has lost upward steam these past few weeks. Coupled with the ubiquitous bad news out there, it's pretty much a no-brainer that the market isn't going to shoot upwards from here. That being the case, a sharp drop at some point soon is more likely than not.

Keep your powder dry and your eyes open for a few weeks. I'm betting there will be a nice entry point in the next month or so if you want to put a toe in.

GDP Shows Economy Is Far from Recession

CLH, what on earth are you talking about? It takes a real rejection of reality to believe that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.3%. If you really believe that the naysayers here are living in a fantasy world, then you are not just pollyannish, you're in denial.

GDP Shows Economy Is Far from Recession

Not positive, but I believe the growth rate is usually annualized.

Government statistics (all statistics, for that matter) will routinely lean in the direction of the collector's personal bias whenever there's a component subject to personal judgment (e.g., like inflation). They typically push the envelope, but this one's a total whopper. Someone's got real nerve expecting us to believe this.

Is it Different This Time?

Have you ever taken a statistics class? If you had, then you would know:

1) not all distributions are uniform, and

2) what a statistic is.

How does one prove that something "should behave as a statistic?" What does that even mean???