harball

harball
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  • Royal Gold misses by $0.01, beats on revenue  [View news story]
    Big jump in EBITDA, very solid set of numbers. Why would anyone care about EPS in mining? EPS is an opinion, operating cash-flow (in their case EBITDA) is fact.
    Feb 4, 2016. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton: What A Deal  [View article]
    Silver and copper will both benefit from the push to renewables/ clean energy. I think this is being grossly overlooked. Not many people know this but a single MW of solar PV requires as much as 5 tons of copper! Silver is #2 commodity in terms of industrial applications, second only to oil... guess not many realised that either.

    Silver's price discovery process is messy. It is still highly correlated with gold, yet it is more and more used as an industrial metal. PGMs used to be traded as if precious metals, now they are definitely traded as industrial ones.

    I am long SLW.
    Jan 28, 2016. 02:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Dividend Stock Yields 12%, Will Raise Dividend Over 20% In 2016, Earnings Estimates Rising  [View article]
    1. Key offtakers are Drax (UK) and Dong (Denmark). Drax is a coal focussed electric utility, they have converted some plants to pellets. Risky in my view. Dong is financially much sounder and owned by the Danish government. Aslo German RWE and EON use pellets, but they are considerably smaller users compared to the other two.

    2. Not easy to enter the market anymore. The household/ premium market in Europe is down and new offtake agreements on the industrial side are hard to come by. Also the strong US$ is a major headwind right now. Key competitors are German Pellets (large plants also in the US, just defaulted on their debt), Pinnacle Pellet (Canada), Granul (Baltic states) and a number of smaller US and European players. Europe is littered with small pellet plants. Apart from Baltic producers, not really a threat, as mos EU markets have limited supply of suitable raw material.

    3. As far as I know they have existing agreements denominated in US$. New agreements are difficult to reach -- very few if any out there for the time being and the US$ strength is counterproductive.
    Jan 24, 2016. 05:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Dividend Stock Yields 12%, Will Raise Dividend Over 20% In 2016, Earnings Estimates Rising  [View article]
    good points. other things worth keeping in mind are the following:

    - the UK Renewable Obligation, the main support scheme, will run out in 2027
    - there are limited markets outside the UK and Denmark for utility-grade pellets (Holland was supposed to have a tender for coal conversion subsidies, but it got cancelled)
    - strong US$ is a major headwind for any new offtake contracts; there are sizeable European producers in the Baltic countries that can undercut any American product right now
    - pellet-fired electricity plants are not cleaner than coal and biomass is not carbon neutral, this realisation will hit home sooner rather than later.
    Jan 24, 2016. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuclear Power, Renewable Energy, Coal, And Electric Vehicles - The Future Of Electricity  [View article]
    Chernobyl devastated Russia? How? The plant was in Western Ukraine and the fallout hit Belarus the worst.

    Chernobyl resulted in up to 1m cancer victims? What? Read the actual reports. Less than 100 direct casualties and c 5000 cancer cases amongst the human population affected, within 1% of statistical averages.

    How is it that you say biofuels generate the bulk of renewable energy? That can't be right.

    Agree with your thesis, but not the arguments.
    Dec 30, 2015. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Buck Rally Begins, Not Stops, With Draghi And The Bear Case For Gold  [View article]
    Yes, short equities long gold/ miners seems to be the right positioning here. US$ will not breach parity with EUR because (i) the Fed will not tighten much (doubt they will raise next week) and (ii) Germany will not support any disproportionate printing by the ECB. Gold miners are down 80 - 90% since the peak. When should one buy them if not now?
    Dec 13, 2015. 04:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Junk Bonds: The Next Subprime?  [View article]
    The Fed may interfere, but will they have any credibility left if they come up with another QE?
    Dec 10, 2015. 05:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Make Of Osisko Gold Royalties Q3 Results  [View article]
    I would argue that OR should be trading at a premium to SSL because their portfolio is of much, much higher quality. It's a less speculative stock. I acknowledge that SSL may give you more bang for the buck if a new gold bull market gets underway. Long in both.
    Nov 5, 2015. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Gold: An Interesting Gold Project, But Too Risky For An Investment  [View article]
    Brent Cook had a good summary on RBY. He thinks their resource estimates and PEA are bogus. He had some good comparison of mining costs at Goldcorp's Red Lake mine and Phoenix. He would not touch it.

    I had a decent position at 1.02 average, sold everything at .49 and bought GUY, AKG instead. Sometimes ine has to bite the bullet.
    Oct 20, 2015. 03:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global X Uranium ETF Is Useless For Uranium Investors Right Now  [View article]
    Agree CCJ is a better bet than URA to play the recovery.

    People should take note of Peninsula Energy (PEN). Largest reserves amongst US ISR names, about start production, fully financed, several long-term offtake agreements with US utilities at premium prices.
    Oct 20, 2015. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmarket Gold: It's Time To Buy This Newly Merged Gold Miner  [View article]
    It does look cheap on many metrics, just a few questions:

    - Seems to me these valuation comps are from the company's own presentation? Usually such comps are skewed in favour of the presenter, sometimes omitting important details about comparables. I will bet you AGI has an explanation for their (outlier) multiples, most likely their numbers need to be adjusted for one-offs or smth like that.

    - If the market is attributing such low multiples on this company, why is that? There sure has to be an objective reason why Newmarket is almost 2.5x cheaper on EBITDA basis than Oceana, another Aussie peer?

    I do not disagree, the stock seems cheap, but I'd be very keen to know why is it. GILD at 118 looked very cheap, too.
    Oct 17, 2015. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Gold: An Interesting Gold Project, But Too Risky For An Investment  [View article]
    I generally read every analysis by HAI as I find it quite useful. Other than CNL missing the deadline for EIA and thus delaying the launch of operations, there is really nothing wrong with the company and it's deposit. Most of the risk factors outlined by HAI are more or less boiler plate which apply to every explorer/ developer. Many things can go wrong once an explorer starts developing the mine. We are a long way from that point.

    What this analysis lacks in my views is figures. CNL has got to be amongst the cheapest development plays out there.

    I bought recently at 1.80 and mean to hold until permitting is complete. I do not expect CNL to develop the mine on their own, although they have build a major shaft already (to be able to drill). So I think they will sell Buritica once they are permitted and reserves are updated. Should gold remain at least rangebound, I expect CNL to perfom very well if the two catalysts kick in.
    Oct 17, 2015. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Dividend Stock Yielding Over 13% With Major Upside Potential  [View article]
    In fact in Europe increasingly a distinction b/w emitting and non-emitting renewables is being made. In some countries non-emitting technologies are getting preferential treatment already.
    Sep 13, 2015. 06:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Dividend Stock Yielding Over 13% With Major Upside Potential  [View article]
    Russia is a non-event in the utility-grade pellet market in Europe at the moment. The largest European producer is a Baltic company Graanul. They are also by far the most profitable producer in the world.

    Russia will not be able to tap into this market any time soon because they will never meet European sustainability standards for raw material used for utility-grade pellets.

    pellets is about logistics first and foremost. anyone who has ever looked into Russian timber business knows it lacks reliable infrastructure. The single largest factory by installed capacity is in western Russia. They have close to 1m tonnes per year nameplate capacity. Actual production is running at ca 20% of the capacity.

    Forget Russia.
    Sep 13, 2015. 06:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Dividend Stock Yielding Over 13% With Major Upside Potential  [View article]
    Co2 intensity is similar. The logic is that wood is seen as carbon neutral, i.e. The wood that's harvested will be restored (planted or regenerated naturally).

    I know how the Euroean industrial pellet market works. Yes, EVA has gotten oversold here, but I also see dark cloud emerging. Pricing of pellets (utilities' ability to pay) is a direct function of power prices and subsidies. Power prices in Europe, UK included, have been trending down. There is pressure on subsidies everywhere in Europe. The UK is the biggest market because they were very dependent on coal when it comes to baseload power, same goes for Denmark, another major consumer of pellets, and Holland (expected to become a major consumer). Contratry to what the author argues, German utilities do not use pellets because there is no subsidy for coal-to-biomass conversions. German authorities subsidise wind, solar, biogas and agricultural biomass, not pellets. Germany is a major player for household or so called 'premium' pellets, but that market is very, very competetive with hundreds of European producers.

    Weaker US$ will be good for EVA.
    Sep 13, 2015. 06:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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