How often do analysts review their targets? In periods of rapid price fluctuations it only takes a few laggards to make a "consensus" figure a false picture of current expectations. For those organizations that might follow a scheduled revisit to sectors on some regular basis, a published price target may sit out there for a while.
I agree that many price targets will be coming down but what would you expect in a declining economy?
We've Crossed the Line from Capitalism to Socialism [View article]
The author is just another in a long line of observers that writes a withering headline to get attention and then fills the rest of the space with jibberish. The ideologues are hard at it, screaming the buzz words of one political philosophy or the other, all intent on feeding the fire and ignoring the real world issues that real people are trying to manage for the benefit of all of us.
Contrarian Update: Time for Bonds and REITs [View article]
"Clearly, Mr. Market is offering a bigger cushion of safety in these asset classes relative to recent history."
I'm not sure any reference to "recent history" gets the job done. Recent history includes a monetary policy of easy credit and the repricing of all equity issues by virtue of the adventures of LBO sharks. REITs in particular may live in a much different world.
Wow. Someone builds a wind farm in upstate NY and only then discovers that the existing grid is inadequate. DUH. What a chump. Do we really want to build transmission lines to every remote area where some speculator wants to build wind generation? Talk about a Bridge to Nowhere!!! And the environmental impact of streams of HV transmission lines running from the Dakotas to each coast so that Joe Sixpack can run his multiple appliances during peak power usage periods is a severe one with huge political barriers to success.
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So you made a bad investment. We all do that, even pros like you. Why trot out all your justifications that didn't pan out? And the "everyone' this and "everyone" that is worse than sarcasm, its just not true.
I bought FWLT and lost money. I continue to follow the company and its prime sectors. FWLT, MDR, and JEC are my favorite "infrastructure" plays. But I now own none of them because I believe the more probable scenarios going forward aren't priced into the equities. That includes rising inflation rates, continued tightening in the credit markets, and a failure of coherent public policies both here and abroad.
FWLT enjoyed a great day today, so now "everyone" agrees with you.
People who are changing habits because of $4 gasoline will be prone to change their habits toward "elitist" coffee. It is expensive -- period. If this economy continues to weaken, and unemployment continues to rise, there isn't a coherent strategy available to Starbucks to avoid an erosion of their customer base.
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"If you had a choice between investing in a market where profitability was falling and the economy was in a recession, or a market where growth remains above 4% and profits are soaring… which would you choose?"
I'd choose the one that has mispriced stocks within the given economic conditions. Your analysis doesn't indicate whether the stocks serving the EM economy are fairly valued or not. If an economy is growing at 7.5% and the market expects 10%, good luck.
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I agree that many price targets will be coming down but what would you expect in a declining economy?
We've Crossed the Line from Capitalism to Socialism [View article]
Contrarian Update: Time for Bonds and REITs [View article]
I'm not sure any reference to "recent history" gets the job done. Recent history includes a monetary policy of easy credit and the repricing of all equity issues by virtue of the adventures of LBO sharks. REITs in particular may live in a much different world.
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I bought FWLT and lost money. I continue to follow the company and its prime sectors. FWLT, MDR, and JEC are my favorite "infrastructure" plays. But I now own none of them because I believe the more probable scenarios going forward aren't priced into the equities. That includes rising inflation rates, continued tightening in the credit markets, and a failure of coherent public policies both here and abroad.
FWLT enjoyed a great day today, so now "everyone" agrees with you.
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Global Investing: Only 'Dead' for the Dumb Money [View article]
I'd choose the one that has mispriced stocks within the given economic conditions. Your analysis doesn't indicate whether the stocks serving the EM economy are fairly valued or not. If an economy is growing at 7.5% and the market expects 10%, good luck.
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