Thanks for the link. I've read it before and I agree that Geordy made very good points. But I ask the question to see if you have something specific to say from your perspective. Of course there is nothing wrong for you to agree with the author. Besides the specifics, the bottom line is that what really sets this company apart is that it's truly run by owners and for the owners.
Why Apple's Stock Is Grossly Overvaluing The Company's Free Cash Flow [View article]
Apple's TTM free cash flow is $44.5 B. This TTM figure is based on the latest report for Q2 FY2012. Q3 FY2012 has ended and the exact figure will be known on July 24th, which will likely bring TTM FCF to $50 B. Estimation for next TM's FCF is likely to be north of $60 B.
Most Obvious Trade: Short U.S. Treasuries [View article]
As obvious as long CCME? BTW: Even a short trade on a quite obvious fraud (CCME) may not be that obvious - suppose someone bought CCME put which expires during the trading halt...
The longs were first victims of confirmation (and many other psychological) bias so they were blind to the obvious red flags and warnings signs. Now they are in psychological denial which is very predictable and understandable.
"The reality is too painful to bear, so you just distort it until it’s bearable. We all do that to some extent, and it’s a common psychological misjudgment that causes terrible problems." (www.joshuakennon.com/t.../).
Unfortunately for those in denial, not only they have lost capital, but also such attitude will prevent them from learning the proper lesson from the financial loss. IMHO, the latter is bigger loss than the former which could be turned into learning opportunity. The first thing to do is to get to acceptance from denial. I know, I know, it's easier said than done because it's so painful, but it has to be done.
Reading both cnfriend03's post on possible way of faking cash balance and the DUOYUAN SEC filing makes me saying 'A-ha'. Thanks for sharing the link! BTW, this doesn't seem to be a trick exclusively reserved for the Chinese though. I'm not sure if you were around with the ACLN story 9 years ago. Similar tricks were used www.amazon.com/Selling...
Could you please send the link to chfriends03's argument about the Beijing airport revenue. I was his post on the possible way of faking bank balance (which is very educative) but couldn't find his post on the airport bus revenue - I really tried but seems the yahoo board does not offer search by poster's name. Since I'm trying to estimate the 'real' revenue number myself based on CCME's pricing card and some assumptions on the # of ads, I'd be interested in seeing similar effort from another knowledgeable and rational person. Thanks and congratulation on your 'changing your mind when the fact has changed' mental attitude.
China MediaExpress: The Most Polarizing Stock in the World [View article]
Well said! Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts. Looking forward for your work in the future.
Market will humble and punish those who either consciously or subconsciously choose to be the victim of confirmation bias and other psychological traps.
You mentioned Munger's "lollapalooza" effect on company managements. I think we are also observing a marvelous illustration of the same effect from this discussion forum! I just checked the list of 25 biases and can see many of them being on vivid display here. It provides an opportunity for me to remind myself once again to be extremely careful in order to avoid these traps.
ECRI: WLI Registers Largest Three-Month Gain in History [View article]
Section in Warren Buffett's 2008 shareholder letter related to Black-Scholes model: "It’s often useful in testing a theory to push it to extremes. So let’s postulate that..." Applying similar methodology: if some indicator drops from 100 to 1 in 18 months, then rebound to 10 in 3 months, then wow! that indicator had just registered the historical largest gain of 900% in 3 months! The future must be bright.
Fairfax Financial: Anatomy of a Hatchet Job [View article]
Excellent article. One comment: Mr. Tilson: I think you get the float cost wrong. If you read the FFH AR page 7 table more carefully you will see (2.5%) rather means a positive (not negative) cost of the float. Reading the immediate paragraph following the table clarifies this even further because the 3.3% figure for 2007 means actaully a negative cost.
5 Reasons To Buy The Buckle [View article]
5 Reasons To Buy The Buckle [View article]
Thanks. Like your writings very much.
Why Apple's Stock Is Grossly Overvaluing The Company's Free Cash Flow [View article]
Why Apple's Stock Is Grossly Overvaluing The Company's Free Cash Flow [View article]
Estimation for next TM's FCF is likely to be north of $60 B.
Apple Sells A 2 Headed Vision [View article]
Will China Come to Europe's Rescue? [View article]
量化宽松3 baike.baidu.com/view/2...
:-)
Most Obvious Trade: Short U.S. Treasuries [View article]
BTW: Even a short trade on a quite obvious fraud (CCME) may not be that obvious - suppose someone bought CCME put which expires during the trading halt...
The End of CCME's Fairy Tale [View article]
"The reality is too painful to bear, so you just distort it until it’s bearable. We all do that to some extent, and it’s a common psychological misjudgment that causes terrible problems." (www.joshuakennon.com/t.../).
Unfortunately for those in denial, not only they have lost capital, but also such attitude will prevent them from learning the proper lesson from the financial loss. IMHO, the latter is bigger loss than the former which could be turned into learning opportunity. The first thing to do is to get to acceptance from denial. I know, I know, it's easier said than done because it's so painful, but it has to be done.
Why I Am Long China Media Express [View article]
Why I Am Long China Media Express [View article]
BTW, this doesn't seem to be a trick exclusively reserved for the Chinese though. I'm not sure if you were around with the ACLN story 9 years ago. Similar tricks were used www.amazon.com/Selling...
Why I Am Long China Media Express [View article]
Could you please send the link to chfriends03's argument about the Beijing airport revenue. I was his post on the possible way of faking bank balance (which is very educative) but couldn't find his post on the airport bus revenue - I really tried but seems the yahoo board does not offer search by poster's name.
Since I'm trying to estimate the 'real' revenue number myself based on CCME's pricing card and some assumptions on the # of ads, I'd be interested in seeing similar effort from another knowledgeable and rational person.
Thanks and congratulation on your 'changing your mind when the fact has changed' mental attitude.
China MediaExpress: The Most Polarizing Stock in the World [View article]
Market will humble and punish those who either consciously or subconsciously choose to be the victim of confirmation bias and other psychological traps.
You mentioned Munger's "lollapalooza" effect on company managements. I think we are also observing a marvelous illustration of the same effect from this discussion forum! I just checked the list of 25 biases and can see many of them being on vivid display here. It provides an opportunity for me to remind myself once again to be extremely careful in order to avoid these traps.
ECRI: WLI Registers Largest Three-Month Gain in History [View article]
Applying similar methodology: if some indicator drops from 100 to 1 in 18 months, then rebound to 10 in 3 months, then wow! that indicator had just registered the historical largest gain of 900% in 3 months! The future must be bright.
Fairfax Financial: Anatomy of a Hatchet Job [View article]
Mr. Tilson: I think you get the float cost wrong. If you read the FFH AR page 7 table more carefully you will see (2.5%) rather means a positive (not negative) cost of the float. Reading the immediate paragraph following the table clarifies this even further because the 3.3% figure for 2007 means actaully a negative cost.