Marcus Aurelius

Silver Upholstery the Newest Source of Demand

While I am looking to buy silver myself -- the anti-microbial properties of the metal are not a new discovery and the notion the amount of products benefiting from those properties is quite large is not one that would not escape anyone -- especially of those looking to buy silver.

I have to work on the assumption the marketplace has that already factored into the silver price.

As is noted in the article only trace amounts of silver are required to reap the anti-microbial benefits -- so while the amount of products requiring silver is large the amounts are small (However, these are truly destructive -- can you imagine putting your dirty & holey socks into a recycle bin?). I am guessing requirements for energy technologies will consume a lot more silver -- but of course those products may prove more easily recyclable.

Eight Restaurants with the Right Recipe for Lean Times

Of the joints in the list above -- I have been to the Texas Roadhouse (not the symbol but I will henceforth use the acronym TR) once and when on the road for business (and can expense at least a portion of my dinners) I frequent The Olive Garden (not the symbol but I will henceforth use the acronym OG). I ordered ribs at the TR and found them dry and not very appealing (especially in comparison to DAVE) and have not been back -- though others tell me their steaks are great.

OG's menu is a bit limited -- they used to have one of my favorite Italian staples and shortly after I started frequenting the place it came off of the menu. However, the portabella stuffed ravioli is a great dish and usually what I order. Where I used to visit regularly they were usually pretty busy at dinner time, but the bar was usually open so I would sit at the bar order a couple of ginnentonics and have two three glasses of wine.

Famous Daves is a place my wife and I visit on a regular (but infrequent) basis -- mostly when the weather is warm. I've seen analysts complain the menu is static but I say, SO? I don't go there to explore new foods I go there for RIBS (which is the only thing I've ordered from all of my visits).

I have played DAVE in the past I bought at $4 and sold about two - three months later at $6. I played with it in a sandbox once -- shorting it and made out well on that (except for the fact it was a sandbox play).

Of late, $6.00 on DAVE seems to be the base and far deviations from $6.00/share need to be cause for further investigation.

The Decline of Credit Cards

One of the things a personal finance talk show host I listen to always cautioned people against doing was to take out equity on the house and use that to pay off or down credit cards. It is silly & foolish to convert unsecured credit to secured credit. Back in the real estate boom days that was easy & tempting to do after all we would often hear about getting these loans up to 110% of the house value.

More often than not, according to this host, people would then re-run the cards up.

His typical advice was to cut them up or put them in a bag of water and store in the freezer and pay them off with the paycheck or checks.

Now, the later approach is the only one open to people.

The Importance of Economic Discipline

Very interesting article.

Most discussions of inflation center on the destruction of stored wealth and its effects on those trying to save. Most such articles proceed to discuss activity centered on protecting one's existing wealth against the ravages of inflation. Not too long ago I saw someone discussing one of the major stock indices how it was doing real good in absolute terms -- but vs. against another measure (IIRC gold price in any event I took it as a measure of real value instead of dollar value) that index did not look so hot anymore.

A buddy of mine frequently rages against speculative financiers. I keep hearing him talk about a fellow who performed a massive shorting operation and won big time. My buddy then complains about how the money was "non-productive" and should be taxed at a higher rate. I don't view such exercises as completely without merit -- there is a very important message others need to heed in such transactions. More importantly as John points out, inflationary policies serve to motivate such operations.

I've never really understood the reason why governments absolutely hate deflation of any sort. The reason is becoming more and more clear.

Crisis in Context: 'This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,' by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff

PonchoVilla,

"Every time is different to the present observer because he or she has no historical perspective." The problem with this observation is a lot of the people who say "this time its different" are typically old enough to know better.

ValueInvestor,

Who again coined the phrase "irrational exuberance"? I remember hearing people scream in response: "This time its different". Maybe the timing on irrational exuberance was off but it was essentially correct.

Silver 'Misbehaves' in Recent Rally: Time to Buy

Jeff,

I was up north at the cottage of a buddy's father. He took me outside and removed the cap of one of the metal tubes of the firewood racks -- full of quarters. Intriguing but one has to wish he hadn't done that if my buddy's Dad is robbed I am immediately a suspect.

Silver 'Misbehaves' in Recent Rally: Time to Buy

I'm looking into purchasing silver. I have found a local jeweler to be willing to sell bullion -- was not able to guarantee a regular amount but would keep my name on a list and call when the goods are in (and on the day I was in I was okay with his ask). I'ld probably arrange to buy X oz.s/month. In addition, I have been watching E-Bay and there are a number of people out there selling bullion. Talking with the local jeweler he vouched for the mint from which the silver the EBayer was pushing comes from.

He was kinda pushing me into the silver content coins (as opposed to collector coins) but I'm more comfortable buying bullion.

My motives are mostly to guard against inflation and in my belief that the industrial use of silver (even though it is considered to be "dirty") is a huge and underestimated destructive consumer of silver.

As far as storage, of course, thievery is a risk but I plan to keep pretty much absolutely mum about it (sharing the info with wife, parents, brother, and perhaps an attorney) put it in a safe that is fire proof as well as thieve proof. In addition, I have some other ideas about storage.

Once I started to pile up significant amounts I'ld probably convert the silver from smaller pieces into larger ones and then into gold. Even though I am "buying" the current conventional wisdom that silver is more significantly undervalued gold is a more concentrated store of wealth.

LOL when young and playing D&D our characters always got lots of "gold pieces" to start off with -- even though the Player's Manual or the Dungeon Master's guide stressed that it was far more likely beginning adventurers would probably have mostly copper pieces and maybe a silver piece or two. Well, it was "fantasy" role playing, right?

I've never felt the notion that silver is a "dirty" metal and have always considered it a (not so) precious (as gold) metal. When I was in the Middle East they were mostly about gold but I've seen a lot of silver over there too.

Liar Loan Securitizations: A Surprising Twist

When real estate was viewed as a can't lose investment supported by the reality (albeit a reality that could not continue forever) of markets (how many times did I hear people calling in on personal finance shows saying they doubled their money in one year on certain property, it was a number of times) than what did such matter? The bank puts up the money, the buyer defaults, but what they hey, at this time next we unload the property get our principal +25% back.

The real estate bubble burst and now there is a lot of real estate on the market where banks and owners are underwater. Now, a bank can not get away with making bad loans and are twice shy.

What I find stunning is the notion that a number of loans did not make it past their first payment until they went into delinquency.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

Michael D.

The stock market is a ponzi scheme like insurance is gambling.

LilBob,

We'll just disagree on that then. I agree the fundamentals of our economy look bad at the moment, for some reason they always seem horrible even in good times. Admittedly, my views are based more on technical/contrary sentiments. As I said I heard a lot of people calling $5.00/gallon gas last summer and the scoffing at the $30 CL call was legion and wrong.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

Fahrender,

Most common explanation for Autozone and the like is people are repairing their current cars rather than running out and buying a new one. In addition, probably a number of more people are doing the repairs on their own. Last fall I did some brake jobs on my own requiring me to visit similar stores a number of times.

Why Felix Should Walk Away

The spirit in much of this conversation is there is no morality in contracts, just contracts. I say that ignores what contracts are in the first place -- an attempt to mechanize morality and make the morals in play clear and enforceable with consequences.

Moral people do not need contracts, contracts are worthless with immoral people, and the vast majority of us in between those two poles need contracts. Note, my point about how contracts are ineffective with immoral people.

The notion to walk from the contract and send the bank a "jingle-letter" is anticipated and may be provisioned in the contract, but it is hardly moral. On the other hand, if we were talking about property that was 100% investment property from the get-go I would be a lot more understanding. That is generally why the principal home mortgages are more favorable to the homeowner than loans for investment properties.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

LilBob,

I disagree strenuously with your sentiment. I think the coiled spring analogy is perfectly fine. Also, you leave out the rest of 320's comment which is bullish and meshes with my outlook.

I put it all out again. If last August I would have called for $40/barrel oil, what would you have said? I have seen these oscillations before and I fully expect to seem them again. I am quite willing to entertain the notion the tension was built into the system at 14,000 rather than it being wound up now, which is something I am starting to become convinced is the case.

Price & value discovery is not an exact science nor are the parties in the deals on the same timelines.

@Jeez, nor is there any law saying it must stay out. I have seen money flow in and out of equities from a fairly close perspective a number of times in my life. I see no reason why this time should be any different unless someone ;-( takes a wrecking ball to our nation's economy, which I admit is starting to seem a reasonable fear.

So much of this seems a redux of Jason Scharz's $30 CL call last summer/fall.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

Raisin4daughters,

Your thought just occurred to me the moment before seeing your post. It is quite possible the initial tension could have been upside tension in the American economy as a whole and not just a sector. Still, it is always a temptation to believe the top of the last bull run is the proper place for the market. In any event I think the market has overshot and overshot by quite a bit its proper value.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

@Domino412,

The prevailing sentiment is bearish and not for a snapback. As the rejoinder to my note on that states is to keep it quiet so the masses don't catch on. Last summer I paid close attention to commodities especially CL and other energy commodities and the sentiment on that. Even as the prices started retreating from the top, very few expected it would whiplash as severely as it did, economic downturn or not.

Maybe a few of us here are looking for such a thing but out in the general population there is very grim outlook. I have been through this before with my 401K watching it do down-down-down and then finally getting sick of seeing that... So I stop watching closely, I come back sometime later and what do I say? Holy $#!+ where did all of that $ come from?

Back in August if I told you oil would be trading for $45/barrel in the sprintime, what would you have said to me? I bet it would be something along the lines of "give some of your smoke!".

LordDarley,

Yours is about the only cogent reason put out there to explain for a slow return to 14,000istan or a longer time to 15,000istan than what many think. Even if the death tax is not repealed that wealth will eventually return into play, when those people pass on. The money will not suddenly disappear into the ether, will it? I guess that last conjecture depends on how bad the imminent inflation is.

As Unemployment Grows, Tech Jobs Hang On

Eric,

I think we can trace the roots of this back to many administrations and many Fed Chairs. I am no fan of President Obama (w/o trying to sound like a seminar caller I do want to establish my bonafides here) the last Dem I voted for was Dukaka (young FM station listening college student that I was back then - WFB shortly after that influenced me in a TV ad campaign to come back home).

Still, administration after administration kept pumping the housing market bubble and W's kept it right up. This situation isn't entirely W's fault nor is it wholey off of himself either.