marcus aurelius

http://bloggerbeer.blogspot.com/

25 Comments

    • Real Estate Bottom - or Prelude to a Drop? [view article]
      A few things I have been hearing for sometime and continue to hear.

      The main group being foreclosed on are not families but speculators. People who decided to develop ten too many condo developments or built yet another office park. No doubt, there are families being foreclosed on but the lion share of foreclosures is on over-leveraged speculators.

      I am looking to convert a loan that just transitioned from a construction to a one year ARM (I have a real heckuva rate on it too) to a 30 year fixed. So, I am talking with bankers on a regular basis (still some work to do on our project) and they tell me in our market property values are holding on okay and in fact varies in our locality (northeast WI). Of course, the couple divorcing across the road may sink your property value but that applies in good times too. I have heard starter homes are still moving well around here, that is properties with values up to $150,000 or so. I have seen more expensive houses site for years.

      Of course they can go lower, but the money owed on a house is strong boundary. My uncle has an extra house in Orlando and is renting it right now rather than selling it because of market conditions.

      Back in the bubble days I would hear story after story about people in the hotspots mentioned doubling their money on a property after one year of holding the property, in contrast a banker friend of mine informs me we can expect about 4% appreciation around here (and she told me back in the bubble days). Tortoise vs. hare.       Oct 07 12:10 PM
    • Events in Russia Could Push U.S. Toward a Clearer Energy Policy [view article]
      AlexS,

      If you want something resembling numbers go & read John Ryden at www.examiner.com/x-325...

      He wrote an article here some months ago on Oshkosh Truck's new electric drive truck and the ultra-capacitor technology the trucks have. He analyzed the energy plans of both candidates with numbers and finds they are long on promise but short on delivery.       Aug 19 11:37 AM
    • Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30 [view article]
      Yeah the report abuse link is sorely needed here and it isn't for Jason's article its for the thoughtless abusive comments.

      Cam Hui, as oil was at its top wrote an article here titled Oil $100 before $150, but $200 before $50. At the time, oil was hitting $147.00/barrel.

      I am not as optimistic (I don't have any position other tahn as a consumer of its derivatives) as Jason is, I don't think oil will be at $30.00/barrel ever again but I believe it has more downside to it.

      Fundamentally, Jason is correct, the oil producers do not have free reign to raise prices. Raise prices too much and you spur innovation to find other energy sources. Demand is being destroyed for a number of reasons. Many people say it is because the economy is tanking, but what causes what? I suspect high energy prices are causing the economy to tank rather than the economy causing oil prices to tank.       Aug 15 07:40 PM
    • Getting More Constructive on Crude Oil [view article]
      You did call the recent top off, very good! I recall your prediction that oil would hit $100 before $150, very nervy considering oil was trading in the mid to upper $140s at the time. Aug 08 11:08 AM
    • Record Decline in Driving, Record Level of Conservation [view article]
      Creative destruction is going on, it just takes a little more time for it to materialize. I am reading on all sorts of incremental breakthroughs on new ways to obtain fuel (LS9's diesel excreting microbe) and to use energy more efficiently (Michelle Malkin notes a Purdue breakthrough on LED light production).

      Oil based energy system did not spring onto the scene full-fledged overnight it evolved into what it is today and evolution is a slow sometimes painful process.       Jul 29 04:23 PM
    • Record Decline in Driving, Record Level of Conservation [view article]
      Is it "working" depends on the goal. If your goal is simply to reduce the consumption of gas/energy consumption then high prices work better than energy squirrel PSA ever will. If your thing is burning hydrocarbons creates anthropegenic global warming then the increase in energy prices is a good thing.

      What you note fireball, is something the real advocates of high energy prices are afraid to see. While high energy prices reduce energy consumption those prices reduce our ability to produce and deliver goods to people.

      There are very few opponents of low energy prices willing to admit they support the high energy prices and fewer who will own up to the consequences.

      The point is hair-brained public service announcements, global concerts, earth-day events, and the like have little or no effect on the consumption of energy while a 33% increase in the price of energy does.       Jul 29 04:19 PM
    • Oil Price Targets [view article]
      I have taken to reading INO.com & the Trader's Blog, these guys are technical investors and rely on trends. They are not going to be the first ones to pick up on a market move.

      In fact, back in June or so Adam said his methodology was telling him to short oil and the very next day shorts were wrong and in a big way. He then came on and freely admitted he was wrong about oil's move, and went onto to note no system is foolproof. I think a fair amount of the people out there are technical investors.

      After all, "the trend is your friend" is not some piece of wise insight, its common knowledge.       Jul 25 05:43 PM
    • Oil Price Targets [view article]
      Valueinvester,

      Cam Hui in this column is looking smart: seekingalpha.com/artic...

      In the article he speculates oil will hit $100/barrel before it hits $150. At the time oil was setting records at $147.00/barrle.       Jul 25 02:23 PM
    • 'Pickens Plan' Comes in the Nick of Time [view article]
      AlexS,

      The plan is to replace traditional gasoline sourced overseas with domestically sourced natural gas that is how we would staunch the flow of wealth outside the US.       Jul 25 09:03 AM
    • 'Pickens Plan' Comes in the Nick of Time [view article]
      As long as the wind farms are widely dispersed they should be able (as a whole) be able to maintain an average output and remember they can tune each station to the particular condition each station faces. I agree it would be great to come up with a practical way to store output in excess of current needs.

      The one concern I have is a whole lot of us use natural gas to power our home heating, cooking, and the like. Diverting significant amounts of natural gas to transport would hit those people hard.

      Investor612 is spot on about speed. When gas prices are topping out like they are now, I drive the speed limits and watch my brake usage as well as my acceleration and when I do all of that the mileage on my Impala is noticeably higher.

      As far as jobs go, my father notices tons of tubes being built in a town on Lake Michigan. He thought it was oil pipeline but it turns out to be wind turbine towers.

      At least Pickens is doing something and not just yapping. Some pols, one in particular, are nothing but Jimmy Swaggarts of the global warming faith.       Jul 25 08:55 AM
    • Oil Price: $100 Before $150 - But $200 Before $50 [view article]
      Current futures are under $130.00 now. Still closer to $150.00 than $100.00 but not by much, and I do not recall hearing futures moving above $147.00.

      Bold prediction Mr. Hui and is looking good.

      Jan, look in the mirror!       Jul 22 11:22 AM
    • US Economy Still Has a Ways to Go [view article]
      I wonder what the thought is about the state of long term rates 10 years out from now is? 30 year mortgages in my locale are currently varying from about 6.25% to 6.75%. A local bank is offering a 10 year arm for about 5.7%.

      This will give us the chance to gobble up a lot of principal and keep an eye for long term rates in the same neighborhood (about the start of this year late last year 30 year mortgages were going for 6% +/- .125%).

      However, if we don't figure out our energy situation I fear interest rates on mortgages may be going back to the way they were in the late 1970s.       Jul 14 03:43 PM
    • Oshkosh's Diesel Electric Hybrid Monster Truck [view article]
      The ultra-capacitors are supplied by NASDAQ::MXWL Jun 30 03:08 PM
    • Even the Gas Crisis Needs a Culprit [view article]
      redbaron, Nice sentiment but it runs smack into its own wall of the real world. Two people can look at the same facts and figures and come up with different actions to solve the problem, then we have to decide which course to take, how do we do that through politics.

      High energy prices are a problem and we have differing views on how to deal with them. The Democrats I think want to say "leave 'em high in order to spur conservation & innovation in alternative energy" but they know that will not sit very well with the public, so they find a convenient scapegoat, as we see that is strong medicine that is going to rough up the patient before the patient gets well. The Republicans (disclosure this is my side) want to ease the immediate pain of high energy this will lead to ease short term pain, but seem to have an overconfidence in our ability to quickly solve the problem which the Democrats seem to have as well.       Jun 24 11:58 AM
    • Raw Data Report: Famous Dave's, Applebee's [view article]
      I am a Famous Dave's fan and am looking for a buy opportunity on the company. I eat there on a regular basis probably 3-4 times per year. Of all the chain BBQ joints I enjoy Famous Dave's ribs the most. We have a place called Tony Roma's (TRO) in WI that has ribs and a Texas Roadhouse (TR) nearby and I thought TR's ribs were dry and TRO did not make much of an impression on myself. TRO aims to be more than barbecue and IMO they end up falling short both in terms of the food & atmosphere. I have had ribs at Smokey Bones and again nothing special.

      About six years ago I had a buy order on DAVE for $6.00/share and got off my plan and lost out on the buy (I had planned to sell at about $9.00/share) the stock hit my predicted point, but I am not a big player so most likely my order was way back in line and the players who engage in 10,000+ orders were served up first. Had I stuck to my plan I would have made some quick money on the transaction, because that was around the time DAVE started to head up fairly quickly.

      Can the menu deal with some freshening? I am not so certain about that, I don't go to Famous Dave's for fresh and exciting food, in fact, if Famous Dave's only had one item on the menu (their St. Louis ribs) I would still be going there.

      Wait times, the last time I was there I wish it was longer! My brother and I were there last Saturday (June 21, 2008) and seated immediately, but we arrived on the late side (after 7:30 pm). My brother and I were there, ordered a drink and then I had another (they messed up and mixed my gin and tonic (GnT) up in a small glass so they very honestly & graciously let me know I had another coming) and before the second GnT was complete the meal was served, typically I have a glass of wine with my dinner but I suppose it was for the best. Point being, the meal was brought out quick, again it was past normal eating hours.

      This stock has not been in this area since October of '04 & in July of '07 it was in the $20.00 area.

      What can the place do to improve? More atmospherics than anything. I detest the music they play and since most of the company I dine with detests cigarette smoke perhaps they can get rid of smoking entirely in their restaurants. It would have been nice to sit at the bar the other night. I used to like their beans a lot, but I have since come upon a recipe that puts their beans to shame.

      Disclosure: currently just a fan of Famous Dave's.       Jun 24 11:21 AM
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»